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Good to Know
We each make assumptions about who we are, what we’re about. And sometimes, those assumptions change over time.
Between voting age and late 2006, my running assumption about my own politicalness was that I was more Republican than anything else. Since late ’06, with a few fluctuations in between, I’ve consistently felt more Independent than Republican.
The latter was validated when I looked at these two charts — and saw more of my own mind in the trendlines on the first chart than the second.
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8 Responses to “Good to Know”
Excuse me for not following your unexplained thinking………..what, you were mostly for Obama on day 1, you were less for Obama on day 30, but now you're holding steady? What happened on each of those days that aligned your mind with those data points?
I have great difficulty discerning what you and “Let's post a snapshot poll every 2 days Gandelman” are evaluating to conclude on anything.
What matters of factual significance has Obama had on the course of world events, the course of the US economy and even just the course of US politics so far?
Why even take or look at a poll until the guy either does something or if not, then maybe OK, take one in October of 2010 when it might at least begin to have some bearing on things.
The one chart that was not included in the set was the chart for Democrats here: http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-ob… — essentially flat lines, with a staggering 89% vs 5% approval rating.
The one thing that I got from the two other charts spotlighted by Sullivan earlier today was not so much the trend lines — but rather the dramatically shrinking number of “undecideds”. On the Independents chart, the approval rating remains relatively steady, while the disapproval rating has steadily risen – indicating that the undecideds are breaking against Obama among Independents. Eye-balling it, it appears Undecideds have shrunk from roughly 25% of the poll to just 10%.
Meanwhile, looking at the republican chart, a similar trend – the approval rating is dropping, but the disapproval rating is rising much faster over time, indicating undecided republicans are also breaking against Obama – eye-balling that chart it seems the undecideds have gone from 25-30% of the poll to just 5-10%.
My conclusion: People that were undecided about Obama back in January have made up their mind and don't approve what he is doing. Which is not really surprising – I guess what is more surprising is that there were so many undecided independent and republican (but so few undecided Democrats) back in January.
There is one important “danger” to point out when breaking out the three different charts for Democrats/republicans/Independents – by presenting them in that format, it is very easy to mentally give each chart the same amount of weight. However, the three charts do not represent equal populations. Good news for us, however, is that Pollster is kind enough to give us all the data and break-downs on how the produce the charts.
Looking at the last five polls used to produce the charts, which divided the poll respondents into three separate categories (Pew, ARG, Cook, Pew again, and CBS – all taken since 4/1), you can get a break-down of exactly how many poll respondents fall into each category. My quick back-of-the-envelope calculations based on just those last five polls? 36.3% Independent, 35.4% Democratic, and 28.4% republican. (You could go back and do all the polls, not just the last five, I suspect the ratios would be about the same).
Pollster was kind enough to produce a chart that combines the three categories into one properly weighted chart for us: http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-ob…
Current poll-of-polls approval rating: 58.6% vs 37.0%. Since inauguration day, Obama's approval overall has dropped slightly from the mid-60% range, while his disapproval rating has climbed faster, from around 25% — again, mirroring my conclusion in my previous post that the undecideds have broken primarily in the disapproval category over time.
But that now leaves very few undecideds left to make up their minds – so if there is going to be any changes in the polling charts from hereon out, it's going to be from people *changing* their minds, rather than *making* their minds.
CO: …grumble, snarl, scoff…
Obama has made a green economy a priority. His green building czar talks about “green collar jobs”.
The administration has made money available to the states, which offer rebates on energy upgrades. He has implemented tax credits for further help with these upgrades. That, my friend, is effective stimulus. I needed a new roof. By going to energy star shingles and increasing attic insulation, caulking windows and installing solar, I get help meeting five national objectives.
Employment: local installers all over the country retain employees and add new ones. There are 120 million homes that need to be retrofitted. Green building is booming, while other building has tanked. Effective green collar jobs creation. Check.
Manufacturing: National manufacturers make the green products that local installers put in my house. Retained manufacturing jobs, and new ones. Check.
Environment: Fewer new coal plants will be needed, so cleaner air. Reduces emissions, which the courts say must be regulated as harmful to the public health. Those are greenhouse gasses as well as toxins, so a doubly good thing.
Energy: We need to move toward energy independence, and clean sustainable energy for the future. Conservation is now the runaway cheapest form of “new” energy.
Security: Ultimately, we will be more secure when we are not tied to the fortunes of the Middle East. We're funding hostile regimes and elements.
Economy: We want to stop “the largest transfer of wealth in the history of the world; from the West to the Middle East.” (TB Pickens).
This is a small step, but it's fast, sensible and effective action toward major priorities. I think we'll see lots more of this kind of systems thinking, and yes, we can move this country in the right direction. Those who claim Obama and the Democrats (sounds like a band) have not made any progress, I say not so. And I've got the more energy efficient home to prove it.
GreenDreams, I like your comment. I have been constantly surprised about how negative folks have been about the stimulus program for exactly the reasons you articulate. Before the election, Obama spoke with Joel Klein on a plane trip. Klein reported that conversation, stating that Obama had pointed out that it was critical that we spend any stimulus to achieve our long-range objectives, and that we should evaluate its provisions against that metric. Clearly, that's exactly what he's working toward. I never thought that tax cuts could have the same impact as federal spending. But, even if they did, they would cost the same number of deficit dollars, and there was no assurance that the money would go toward anything in-synch with our national interest. They would more likely have funded hundreds of thousands of plasma TVs.
[...] By PETE ABEL, Managing Editor Obama has made a green economy a priority. His green building= czar talks about “green collar jobs”. The administration = has made money available to the states, which offer rebates on energy upgra= des. He has implemented tax credits for Posted from The Moderate Voice – http://themoderatevoice.com/ [...]
I think the green incentives in the stimulus are good, but my issue is that they represent the exception rather than the rule regarding the overall size and allotment of the stimulus bill funds for various projects.
CO — If you look at the Republican chart it starts with a split-mind, net positive. Then it goes virtually all negative in relatively short order. In contrast, the Independent chart tracks a slight erosion of the positive, with a notable uptick in the negative, but not enough to overwhelm the positive.
And that reflects where I am: I have more questions about Obama today than when he took office (is his budget unrealistic? is he truly committed to deficit reduction over time? is he striking the right tone on foreign policy?) — but I still on balance view him positively, and still on balance believe he's doing a fine job.
OK — I know I'm comparing apples and oranges here. The charts reflect the opinions of many people, whereas I'm talking about my singular opinion. However, because my singular opinion is comprised of multiple and often conflicting elements/reactions, some positive, some negative, I saw a parallel — i.e., the multiple elements that go into my assessment of Obama could be charted on a very similar trendline to the multiple assessments of the Independent crowd.
There. Clear as mud, right?
Perhaps you're right after all: This was not my finest moment in blogging.