A new poll by The Politico has some good news for Democrats and President Barack Obama and some bad news for Republicans and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin in particular:
It finds:
*President Barack Obama has emerged as the most trusted figure in American politics.
*Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has emerged as the political figure perceived as the most untrustworthy.
*More people trust the Democrats to come up with solutions than the Republicans.
This poll is significant because it’ll be hard for GOPers to discount it as coming from a leftist or Democratic publication or from a polling company suspected of skewering the poll in favor of Democrats. It also fits in with other polls that continue to show Obama with a high poll rating which is partially due to him having pieced together a coalition of Democrats, independents and Republicans who aren’t into the talk show political culture (in other words: Republicans who won’t be attending tomorrow’s tea parties..). Here are some details from the poll:
Three months into his presidency, Barack Obama stands out as perhaps the most trusted figure in American politics.
In a new Public Strategies Inc./POLITICO national survey of 1,000 registered voters, Obama outdistances figures on both the left and the right in earning the public’s trust, with two-thirds of respondents saying they trust the president “to identify the right solutions to the problems we face as a nation.”
Of those who said they trust the president, 31 percent said they trust him “a great deal.” An additional 35 percent said they have “some” trust that Obama will find the correct solution. Thirty-one percent said they trust Obama either “not very much” or “not at all.”
Voters were asked the same question of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Republican Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, former Massachusetts Republican Gov. Mitt Romney, conservative radio host Rush Limbaugh and the two major political parties. Among those choices, only the Democratic Party was trusted to find the right solutions by a majority of voters, 52 percent to 40 percent. Forty percent of those surveyed said they trusted the Republican Party, compared with 54 percent who did not trust the GOP.
The bad news for the Republicans is that they are not trusted by a large number of Americans that means a large number of Americans are tuning out their message. And looking at Pelosi and Palin? The Politico found this:
Only 26 percent said they trust Pelosi, the lowest total in the group. Palin attracted the highest percentage of those who did not trust her at all to identify the right solutions, topping Pelosi 33 percent to 32 percent. Romney got a mixed reaction, with 38 percent of voters saying they trust him and 39 percent saying they don’t.
So far there are no indications Pelosi is eying the White House. And there are indications Palin is. So Palin has a lot of work to do since imagery counts in politics and just winning over part of the GOP won’t suffice.
Good news, Joe (except for Pelosi…but as you say, she has no ambitions for the White House, as does Palin)
As to:
“This poll is significant because it’ll be hard for GOPers to discount it as coming from a leftist or Democratic publication or from a polling company suspected of skewering the poll in favor of Democrats.” I am sure the GOPers will find a way
Can't say what the wider Republican audience might do with this info, but I can tell you how Palin supporters are spinning it:
Who Do Republicans Trust? Survey Says: Sarah Palin
This hits the Republicans like a canned ham. Obama's numbers rise while Palin's fall. Looks like her 15 minutes have officially expired. Next up, Gingrich and Romney.
Absolutely, it only takes a second to Google to impugn this intimation……….
Before founding Public Strategies, Martin was active in Democratic Party politics in the U.S., having reached a near-perfect record of wins as a political consultant in various U.S. Senate, gubernatorial, and congressional campaigns. Martin has served as senior advisor to the Democratic National Committee, a consultant to the U.S. Senate Democratic Campaign Committee and treasurer of the Texas Democratic Party.
I have no idea if the methodology is straight up or not, but I don't get why Joe preempts any criticism on that basis. I know that several bloggers here have explained that they don't trust Rasmussen due to inadequate explanation of their methodology- is this polling agency more transparent about how they select participants?
Because CS, the first thing you do is question the methodology. Joe appears to know his audience.
Here's a link to 538.com and their ranking of pollsters. Of course, feel free to question their methodology too. Rasmussen is ranked third overall.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/…
Thanks for “finding a way” and so quickly, CO
First, on Politico, here's a comment further down:
“Because CS, the first thing you do is question the methodology. Joe appears to know his audience.
Here's a link to 538.com and their ranking of pollsters. Of course, feel free to question their methodology too. Rasmussen is ranked third overall.”
And here are a couple more recent polls—of course liberal, biased, etc. I know…
April 6, 2009, 7:09 pm
Latest Poll on President Obama’s Approval Ratings
Americans have grown more optimistic about the economy and the direction of the country in the 11 weeks since President Obama was inaugurated, suggesting that Mr. Obama is enjoying some success in his critical task of rebuilding the nation’s confidence, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.
Gallup
April 13, 2009
Americans Most Confident in Obama on Economy
Democratic leaders in Congress fare better than Republican leaders April
PRINCETON, NJ — Over two-thirds of Americans — 71% — have a great deal or a fair amount of confidence in President Obama to do or recommend the right thing for the economy, a much higher level of confidence than is given to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, or the Democratic or Republican leaders in Congress.
These results, from a new April 6-9 Gallup Poll, show that President Obama continues to be the individual upon whom Americans are most willing to bestow their confidence when it comes to the economy.
538 is partisan, just as realclearpolitics skews a bit to the right. Neither are hacks, but they aren't accepted as bias free arbitrators either.
What I was asking is what the specific complaints were about Rasmussen's methodology and how do those factors compare to this polling agency.
All I'm saying is that if I were going to pronounce a poll as beyond reproach, I'd explain why that is so, yet Joe just gave the imprimatur without any real explanation. I'm not specifically dubious about these results, they may well be accurate- but for future reference, I'd like to know whether or not this agency is playing it straight up, and how can we be assured of that?
just curious. What would you consider acceptable?
Are you asking to prove a negative?
“I'd like to know whether or not this agency is playing it straight up, and how can we be assured of that?”
I mean n the results of the past election is not sufficient, what do you deem is? I mean, 538 did have the most accurate polling results to actual vote. Sounds to me like their methodology works.
No, no, it's fine for the GOP to keep denying reality, and huddling closer to Sarah Palin. In fact, it's *perfect*. Keep not learning from the public. Keep not learning from your mistakes. And by all means, keep trying to push damaged goods for candidates. The more the GOP does all these things the better I like it.
It looks like all these polls (and reality) have a liberal bias.
Sure. Thanks
Sure. Thanks
I'll actually agree with you, HD………yes, Gandelman is guilty of either partisan-cheerleading/lying or doing a totally crap job of checking out his sources. If he wants to pass off copy/paste as blogging, that's fine…..but don't insult our intelligence with adding in bs opinion as if it were some sort of factual content. Public Strategies is controlled by a DNC consultant.
I don't disagree that Obama's polling well………amongst all those folks hoping he pulls off a miracle…..because IT IS IN THEIR INTEREST to want that miracle. They do not have the ability or the wherewithall to make their lot better on their own. Instead of joining Gandelman with the insults to intelligence and predict that Democrats are going to be on top for the next 20 years, let's wait to see what the polls say when their is sufficient reality to replace what is now nothing more than hopeful expectation.
Come see me around August with your polls.
I was specifically asking what the previous complaints were here with regard to methodology or transparency of Rasmussen, because I know that there was a discussion (I think between Joe and Elrod.) So, if Joe feels this is an accurate and trustworthy pollster, I'm curious whether or not their methods and disclosure meet the same high standards that they apply when they are dismissive toward Rasmussen.
And yeah, that sounds good about 538, and the fact that they aggregate is good. But don't forget that Zogby became well known and trusted when they had really accurate results in the past, and it's been all downhill from there (to the point that many consider them a joke now.) Past results are not indicative of future performance, and all of that.
“*Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has emerged as the political figure perceived as the most untrustworthy.”
She is getting 40% from the Independents…just sayin…
CO: “IT IS IN THEIR INTEREST to want that miracle. They do not have the ability or the wherewithall to make their lot better on their own.”
That's a pretty broad brush to be tossing around CO. I may not have voted for Obama, but I'm thinking that I kinda want that miracle too. And if it doesn't come, I'm pretty confident in my ability and my wherewithall…
PDF alert!!
The Politico provided a hyperlink (Did I mention it's a PDF?) to the poll's questions, including those about the demographics of the respondents.
See for yourself what they are.
Actually it's funny that you mention the PDF alert, because I saw that but am unable to download or open PDF files at this time.
Trust is earned (and lost) over a period of time – Obama and Palin have certainly earned their marks.
casualobserver
Your cap-locked comment duly noted. Polls are snap-shots of a moment in time. 66% of those polled think Obama is to be trusted.
Who do you and CS trust?
I mean really, with you implying that voting for one's own self interest is somehow nefarious; and CS's “Past results are not indicative of future performance, and all of that,” you both seem frustrated by the concept that reality sometimes doesn't conform to your expectations. I would have figured you would have learned that with Bush.
No such frustration on my part. As to whom I trust, not really anyone, or at least it's 'trust but verify.'
Mainly I feel like all information is now going through one filter or another and the best way to get accuracy is to read a source that slants one way, then a source that slants the other way, and figure out which parts were factual and which were spin.
The most trusted person is Obama? This makes me just have to shake my head is disbelief. I guess people were more interested in his new dog than his going beyong the Bush administration in defending warrantless wiretapping. You know that thing that he said when he was still a candidate: “rejecting a false choice between fighting terrorism and respecting habeas corpus.” Well then he went and vote for FISA and now he has gone beyond Bush on the issue. But, hey the man has a cute new doggie, we can surely trust him, right?
Read some Glenn Greenwald (a liberal constitutional lawyer) and see how much you trust the President:
http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2009/04/…
http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2009/04/…
http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2009/04/…
http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2009/04/…
I think we can trust Obama about as far as we could trust Bush/Cheney
well, we had warrantless wiretapping and a whole lot more under bush.
if that's the worst thing that obama does, i think we can count ourselves lucky.
bush left the country charred.
it's hard to imagine anyone matching the damage that bush did to this country. people gave bush a shot. for way too long. why are you so eager to denigrate positive forward movement, leonidas?