Bibi Netanyahu Anointed; Now What – For Settlements, Iran?
Israeli President Shimon Peres invited Benjamin Netanyahu to form the next government.
After hearing from Peres Friday, Netanyahu, who leads the Likud Party, immediately invited Tzipi Livni, the leader of the Kadima Party, and Ehud Barak, the leader of the Labor Party, to form a national unity government.
Such a government would help Netanyahu hew to a centrist foreign policy and sustain peace negotiations with the Palestinians and the Syrians.
Barak and Livni have said they favor going into the opposition.
Look for lots of blogs at MSM and the usual suspect sites to offer opinion and conjecture about whether this is going to happen in the next six weeks and what, if it does happen, it means for the U.S. and, more anxiously, Iran, Gaza and the West Bank – the settlement movement in particular.
Don’t forget this U.N. report about Iran and uranium:
Iran has built up a stockpile of enough enriched uranium for one nuclear bomb, United Nations officials acknowledged on Thursday.
In a development that comes as the Obama administration is drawing up its policy on negotiations with Tehran over its nuclear programme, UN officials said Iran had produced more nuclear material than previously thought.
They said Iran had accumulated more than one tonne of low enriched uranium hexafluoride at a facility in Natanz.
If such a quantity were further enriched it could produce more than 20kg of fissile material – enough for a bomb.
We won’t get fooled again?
Cross-posted from Writes Like She Talks.
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11 Responses to “Bibi Netanyahu Anointed; Now What – For Settlements, Iran?”
Jill The Iranians have ZERO weapons grade U or HEU. While their stockpiles of LUE could be enriched to weapons grade, there is no evidence of this happening.
And to do this they would have to kick out the UN inspectors.
A fleet of row boats doesn't make a modern navy.
I don't have a problem believing you – but what would be the basis for your disagreement with the findings of the UN?
Fortunately not everyone is in denial about Iranian nuclear weapons work (not even the UN, necessarily), and that includes Israel.
May Israel do well in _all_ its efforts to thwart the Iranian nuclear program and those working on it.
Let the Israel-bashing and reconstituted Netanyahu-bashing begin again, a contemporary meaning of “Move On.”
“A fleet of row boats doesn't make a modern navy.”
Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons, not settling for rocks before compliant-media cameras, bombs, guns, and rockets.
Iran has speedboats loaded with modern weaponry, its conventional forces are being armed by Russia and China (air defense and other categories, not only naval assistance), and has anti-ship capability that can be used ashore, not in the water. Hopefully anyone who denies Iran is making advances will also deny that Iran could disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in addition to attacking ships in the Gulf and attacking its neighbors.
Jill,
Not only are Iranian denials of nuclear weapons work believeable (especially when they're caught trying to deceive the rest of the world, as well as playing other games), but the following is quite believeable, and fully supportable.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middl…
Lets be practical here. Iran has spent many years enriching one metric ton of Uranium to 3% purity ( the purity needed to use in a reactor. That same 3% enriched uranium has to be further enriched to 80%-85% purity to be used in a bomb – that is probably a decade off. There is no doubt in my mind Iran wants the knowledge and capability to produce a bomb (similar to the capabilities of Japan, Brazil and dozens of countries around the world) but not necessarily to actually build one. Persia(Iran) has been militarily a non-offensive country country for more than 1000 years and I believe they perceive their needs as primarily defensive.
Furthermore – Israel has no capability to take out Iran's nuclear program. Israel's planes cannot carry enough ordenance for that distance to be much more than an annoyance to Iran. Yes , they could take out a couple of surface reactors but all the important work and materials are buried deep underground. If Bush would not help Israel bomb Iran, Obama certainly will not. On Iran, Bibi is nothing but bluster.
I spent two weeks in Israel in late January and early February and heard campaign rhetoric all day long – every day. At Likud rallies they showed maps of the 7 Palestinian “reservations” (he called them economic zones) where life would be totally controlled by Israel and no one and nothing would move in or out of theose “reservations” without Israel's permission. I toured the contruction in the E-1 corridor which will connect Ma'ale Adumim to Jerusalem completely cutting off access to the city from the south and the southern west bank from the rest of the west bank. I went out to see the start of construction in the new settlement of Adam East where our aliyah hosts wanted us to move. It's way outside the security fence and is part of the effort to encircle Ramallah from the rest of the west bank. I also went to Ariel where my sister's family lives and watched contruction to it's east to connect it to the settlements of Eli and Shilo to cut off central west bank from the north and south.
The settlers have won the war and Bibi's coalition has promised them further growth. If you want an example of how impossible it is to close these west bank settlements just visit Kiryat Arba (next to Hebron) where my neice lives and you will see a population armed to the teeth with RPG's, small bore mortars etc. The crazies who live there will repeat Masada before they move. I have never been more discouraged about peace in my 52 year association with Israel.
Jdledell – If I were you, if I was writing that comment, I would have put the part about aliyah first. There are many different factions that seek to populate Israel, not only people interested in putting people into the settlements. I'm guessing you know this. The percentage of the population that lives in the settlements is what, to the overall total of the state of Israel, Israeli Arabs included? I don't know but I can't imagine it's more than 10-20% if that – do you know? (I've not googled it.)
Here's also what's fascinating to me: I lived in Israel from 84-85, and I was there this past August 2008. I absolutely got the opposite sense – that while the concentration of religious in Jerusalem is increasing, everywhere else, people are even more Western than ever, secular life continues to thrive.
Where was I in 8/08? I was in the Little Triangle – West and East Baarta, Modiin, Efrat, E. Jerusalem. We met with residents, leaders and others in all these places. We met with Rabbis for Human Rights and the woman who heads Givat Haviva. There are many people and many movements that seek to make a sense of national identity a reality, without undermining the individual religious and ethnic cultures of all the people there.
I do understand how disheartening the landscape can seem. But even for its tiny size, there is enormous diversity in Israel – on every level.
In other words, if you don't want to make aliyah to a settlement town, are you saying that that's impossible?
Jill the link you provided doesn't give any details. This link , also from FT, confirms what jdl commented on:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f367aada-fec8-11dd-b1…
Jill – I am well aware of the diversity in Israel and really appreciate it. Tel Aviv could be transported to any western country and fit right in. I absolutely refuse to move to a settlement town – I don't believe Israel should extend beyond the green line (except for access to the old city). On the other hand I have 35 relatives who responded to Bibi and Sharon's call “to take the hills” right after the Wye River agreements were signed. The only reason we are considering aliyah is my feeling I can do more for peace in Israel than I can do from the US and our plans are to move to Haifa.
My biggest problem with the Israeli government is their constant reinforcement of the settlers. Likud has promised these settlers that they will NOT have to move and that the Palestinians will eventually be fenced in. I even heard Kadima's Ze'ev Boim promise these settlers beyond the security fence that they will not have to move. I do not see a peace agreement on the horizon given the political landscape and for the next 4 years all I see is growth of settlements all across the west bank. Eventually this settlment growth will forever preclude a peace agreement for 2 states. That would be a disaster for Israel.
If you are interested here is a link to a more complete summary of my last visit.
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs…
Ah – okay – I obviously really misunderstood what you wrote – I inferred that settlements were the only place you were considering!! My bad, as they say.
I could not agree with you more re: “My biggest problem with the Israeli government is their constant reinforcement of the settlers.” I've lost count as to how many times I've written that. I feel exactly the same way.
Thanks for clarifying and I look forward to reading your piece at TPM.
Thanks Rudi – My point was to the more general issue but details are always good.
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