Turkey In The Fire (Guest Voice)
Is Turkey heading closer to an Islamist agenda? In this Guest Voice post, Barry Rubin. the director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. – who spent 35 years working on Turkish history and politics and says he was the first Israeli exchange professor to teach there — looks at the issue. Guest Voice posts do not necessarily reflect the opinion of TMV or its writers.
Turkey In The Fire
by Barry Rubin
TURKEY IN THE FIRE
by Barry Rubin
What direction is the Turkish regime heading?
A pessimistic view goes like this: The ruling AK party is pushing toward an Islamist agenda both at home and abroad. It is moving closer to Iran, Syria, and Hamas. In some ways, Turkey might become part of the Iran-led alignment in the region. Anti-American, anti-Western, and anti-Israel feeling is growing. The government is making a sharp break with the past, based on structural changes in the country. It is gradually capturing institutions: buying up or intimidating the media; allied with a rising, more traditionally oriented new business class and village migrants to the city; naming judges; and neutralizing the army.
The hopeful view sounds like this: The Turkish people haven’t changed. A lot of this is temporary, problems stemming from friction with the previous U.S. government in Iraq as well anger at Israel’s military operation in the Gaza Strip. National interests—hope of getting into the European Union; need for U.S. backing; high levels of trade, tourism, and military cooperation with Israel—will pull the government and country back onto its usual course.
Both courses are still open to Ankara’s rulers. But at the moment the more pessimistic analysis seems the likelier outcome. It is true that the key factor is Turkey’s people: but will they speak out and do so effectively?
Before considering this, it should be understood that the policy changes in Turkey do not just include criticism of Israel or some highly publicized events. Rather, there is a systematic shift going on. Internationally, the developments include closer relations between Turkey and such countries as Iran, Syria, and Sudan. Internally, the focal point is the AK’s introduction of more Islamic or Islamist norms, the placing of its people in key positions in the civil service and social institutions, the rising pressure in daily life for conformity with Islamist-dictated behavior, and so on.
The intensity of such changes can be seen also in rarely reported details.
Take, for example, the behavior of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in attacking Israeli President Shimon Peres in an insulting fashion, then walking out of their session in the Davos conference. Erdogan used, in Turkish, a derogatory form of address toward Peres, and then referred to the one-sided confrontation as a new Gallipoli.
Gallipoli was the World War One battle in which the Ottoman Empire defeated a British invasion attempt. To equate this verbal exchange with a bloody battle in which Turks defended their country from invasion was about the most inflammatory patriotic language the prime minister could use to stir Turk passions.
While Turkish officials issue some soothing public statements, emphasizing their opposition to antisemitism, those who know Turkish or are in the country are getting a different picture. Turkish officials are investigating the possibility of initiating war crimes’ charges against Israeli leaders as they welcome top Sudanese officials who are engaged in mass murder in their own country.
Educated, modernist, moderate Turks have not wanted to face what is happening in their country and up until recently have been able to believe the AK is a moderate center-right reformist party with a slight pious tinge. This is becoming more difficult to sustain.
Some months ago I sat around a table with a dozen Turkish professors near Istanbul, people who fit the profile of what would be expected to be strongly anti-AK types. Unanimously they agreed the party was no threat.
One of them, added, however that his sister-in-law told him he was crazy and that the government was leading the country into a disastrous transformation. He then told me that their young nanny had to wear a headscarf and “Islamic-style” clothing, not because she wanted to but because otherwise she might be harassed or even attacked in her neighborhood. But this was all anecdotal information that could be disregarded in favor of heeding what top AK leaders promised.
For me, the most dangerous sign was that while the AK promised not to pick the hardline Abdullah Gul as president, to occupy the post once held by Kemal Ataturk, before the last election, the moment it won by a big margin it did so any way. Gul made an extremely arrogant speech saying, in essence, we won and can do whatever we want.
Now we are seeing the result of that confidence. Believing it can win any election, knowing that there will not be strong international condemnation or pressure, aware that the political opposition is divided and poorly led, and not too worried about an army intervention, the AK is marching faster and more visibly down the road a more Islamicized Turkey at home and abroad.
The next, local elections will tell the tale. If the AK loses in Istanbul and Izmir then it might become more cautious. If not things are going to get worse, much worse.
Right now, the situation of Turkey’s Jews is perilous. There has been no violence and the government might well prevent that from happening. But the signs are dangerous. The Ankara branch of the AKP put up a terribly antisemitic item as an apparent official statement. It said that Hitler was Jewish and the Holocaust was a plot to force Jews to emigrate to Palestine. It came down only after the newspaper Radikal protested. The branch’s leader denied all knowledge of the article.
I append below a letter from Istanbul by a very good friend of mine, a Turkish Jew who is 100 percent reliable and the most moderate, mild-mannered, apolitical person you can imagine. He writes:
-The crowd demonstrating in front of the Neve Shalom Synagogue after a speech of Erdogan was chanting: “Tell us to die, we (will) die; tell us hit; we (will) hit”. (MY BROTHER HEARD IT)
-A neighboring Jewish woman who spoke Turkish with a “Jewish” accent was told by the taxi driver I wish I hadn’t picked you up. (A FRIEND OF MINE TOLD ME)
-In two elementary schools 10 yrs old Jewish boys were called “Dirty Jew” by their peers, something unheard of in the last 60 years. (A FRIEND OF MINE TOLD ME)
-The Jewish youth who were supporting assimilation have debates on this topic, now. (MY FATHER SAID THAT)
-Some Muslim customers/clients are telling jokes to Jewish shopkeepers or businesspeople: “You will butchered, ha ha ha …!” (A FRIEND OF MINE TOLD IT).
-Jewish soldiers –having their obligatory service- were sent home in order to be protected from the harassment of peers.(A FRIEND OF MINE TOLD IT)
-In the exit of the Neve Shalom Synagogue after a wedding was a signboard “Go away Jews , Down with Israel”… (MY COUSIN SAW IT)
–A day after the “Go away Jews” part was covered but the rest remained.
–Jews are wounded by the words of Erdogan implying they are “guests” not citizens after 500 years in Turkey. (EVERYWHERE)
-They were announcements on the billboards in Istanbul “You cannot be the son of Moses!” After some objection they removed the signs from billboards but put them on the buildings (I SAW IT)
-The police has the power to stop any march in Turkey, only if they want to. They have stopped leftist marches immediately, but let the demonstration outside the Israeli consulate continue though it had no permit.
-There is anxiety and discomfort among the community from either terrorist groups or individuals who wage violence thinking that they enjoy government support for doing so.
He ends: I personally thank you for your support to the Turkish Jews –hopefully not Jews from Turkey, soon.
On reading this, a non-Jewish Turk from another city wrote me: “This brought tears to my eyes. I feel the pain for a tree dying in the orchard where I spent my childhood.”
As someone who has spent 35 years working on Turkish history and politics; as the first Israeli exchange professor to teach there; and as someone with scores of close friends, I hope that moderate prevails.
Many Turks are horrified by what they are seeing. Some say these concerns are alarmist and exaggerated. It is the Turkish people alone who will decide their direction and future. But the stakes are high.
Not only is their liberty and society in question but also there are wider implications.
For if Turkey cannot sustain itself as a tolerant, secular, moderate republic, what hope is there for any other Muslim-majority country to do so?
Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), with Walter Laqueur (Viking-Penguin); the paperback edition of The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan); A Chronological History of Terrorism, with Judy Colp Rubin, (Sharpe); and The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley). To read and subscribe to MERIA and other GLORIA Center publications or to order books, write him at profbarryrubin@yahoo.com.
2 Responses to “Turkey In The Fire (Guest Voice)”
With all respect to Mr. Barry Rubin, I believe this assessment is biased and one sided. I don't know where to start, but probably starting from antisemitism in Turkey would be the best.
First of all antisemitism was not invented and executed (in the history) in Turkey and by Turks. You could even broaden this definiton by including Arabs. One just needs to read the history of Middle East to find any attrocities against Jews. There are numerous articles, books about this. You can even Google it, and you'll find a lot of information that Jews lived peacefully in Middle East under Muslim rulers. I'm not trying to blame any particular religion or region, but most of these attrocities happened in Europe for hundreds of years, before and after Islam. I guess I don't have to mention that massacres happened between Christians for hundreds of years too. I cannot comment about why this had happened but these are the historical facts that anybody could easily find in history books.
It's also a known fact that Ottomans saved Jews and Muslims together, without any favoritism, from Spain in 1492. Later on Jews in Turkey and in Middle East have lived prosperous and good lives under Ottoman rule. There were even Jewish ambassadors, ministers and government officers throughout the history of Ottomans.
You may wonder why this was the case for Ottoman Turks, why they were so tolerant to Jews and other minorities under their rule. There are several reasons, first of all Muslims believe that there is no compulsion in religion, so you cannot force anyone to become a Muslim, then Turks were in an empire building practice in Anatolia which consisted of many different ethnics and religions. Turks in the history always known as tolerant people towards other religions. I cannot remember a single event that there was a massacre based on religion. Ottomans were very similar to USA in many aspects. People from all over the world formed an empire. The main body was Turkish but any smart person could raise up to the top based on a merit. That's why one family dynasty could rule that vast area for more than 600 years.
So any ethnic and religious discrimination is not buried in the DNA of Turks contrary to most developed nations, namely Europe ( in general). For years now, Turkey is facing, separatism and terrorism in it's southeast borders. While I would agree (as a Turk) that Turkey did many mistakes against it public (including Turks, Kurds and anyone) by not being the most democratic country in the world, but I would strongly disagree that Turkey had any discrimination against Kurds. Turgut Ozal was Kurdish origin and he became the President of Turkey. I personally have many Kurdish friends who I wouldn't change for anyone in the world. The reason I'm giving these examples is that Turks don't have similar ethnical and religious discrimination that most of the Western countries have. I'm telling this from my own experience. Have you ever tried walking with a Muslim lady ( just in a headscarf not even a full veil) in the streets in Europe or USA without being finger pointed ? That's nearly not possible even in New York, London, Paris, Barcelona let alone other rural parts. God bless who will try to do that. Believe me I'm not a biased person, I work for a Fortune 500 American company as a global executive and live in USA. I'm pro American and I support Israel.
When do you think the time will come that everybody will look themselves in the mirror? Just think the opposite, what if Turks, Indians, Chinese, Russians killed 1500 people in 3 weeks, 500 of them innocent children and women, what would happen ? I tell you ( and you already know it very well) what would happen , CNN, BBC and all other Western media outlets would air these Worldwide and people like yourself who even depends on anecdotal data to make some assumptions, would be screaming about ethnic cleansing, holocaust, barbarism, etc etc. I don't know what did you do in this sense for the 1500 killing, but I and many others in the world didn't see much in this regard. All they saw was children in pieces, blood everywhere and Western leaders supporting Israel as “Every nation has a right stop rockets from other countries”. Don't you think the reasoning behind all these atrocities is very weak ? To stop rockets we killed 1500 mostly innocent people. Peres was trying to explain this to Turkish Prime Minister, by giving strange examples and the strangest was for US people, what if people in NJ shoot missiles at NYC, what would you do ? To say the least, this is a logical fallacy Sir. If NJ was occupied by NYC residents against all UN resolutions for 31 years, what would you expect of fellow NJ people, to give you flowers ? This is not a biased thinking, UN has many resolutions against the invasion of Gaza, this is not something that Arabs are making up themselves.
So Turkey and Turkish Prime Minister with all these facts in their minds have been trying to moderate peace talks between Israel and Palestinians, 7 months ago the ceasefire have established for 6 months but Israel didn't keep its’ promises to open the borders of Gaza then when these people started firing rockets (which are very primitive) Israel attacked and this all happened 24 hours after the Israeli Prime Minister was talking to Turkish Prime Minister. I'm not going to go into more detail of why Israel didn't keep its' promise but the Turkish Prime Minister very understandably took this personal. He felt that he was betrayed by his fellow Israeli counterpart. What would you expect him to do then? Just accept the fact that he spent months for nothing? In Turkey when people give their words it’s like written agreement. Most businesses are based on verbal contracts.
Let me tell you something, we, Turks, have not much motivation to interfere in Middle East stuff as we know from our past experiences that it's not the fanciest place to roam around and the Israeli Palestinian conflict followed by all other political stuff made it like a hell. Given that our hesitance to involve in the regions politics, we are also not stupid, as anybody in their right minds would see that without the Israeli- Palestinian peace there won't be any peace in the region. Blood only attracts more blood. Sanctioning and applauding Israel's heavy handed attacks on Gaza will only increase the hatred and to a degree antisemitism. Don’t you guys see this? Unless Israel wipes out all Middle East and kills 400 Million people (which is not possible in anyways), it has to be more proactive to seek a peace agreement and Turkey is the best friend in that sense.
We Turks are against antisemitism, Islamofobia and anything that is used to discriminate people one to another. We want to create a tolerant world where every nation can live peacefully. So could you please tell me how are we going to do this while people kill each other like this? I personally got many congratulatory notes from my friends all over the world, Muslims, Hindus, Jews, Christians, Americans, Israelis, Chinese, French, British and many others, for the Turkish Prime Minister's words and storming off the stage. The main message was “Your prime minister told Peres the things that most of the world wanted to tell”. So come on, really isn't it time to look ourselves? Where did Israel go wrong? Is good leadership killing anyone that stands in front of us and creating future hatred for Israel or is the best leadership is creating alliances and friendship even from your enemies? I’m not saying it’s easy but I don’t see much effort in this sense.
I personally think Israel has a right to exist, even though it's on the land that it had gotten from other people. Past is the past. If Israel wants to live peacefully I guess it has to find a consensus with its’ neighbors. How long Israel wants to live in this constant fear of terror? This is not smart. Smart way is the peace not war.
I have yet to see an antisemite Turk in my close proximity, but these killings increase the disapproval of Israel even in most Pro Israel people of Turkey, even in the Jewish population. Also people start to get the notion that some people abuse antisemitism, to gain personal or organizational favors. Israel and being Jewish are two different things, one can oppose Israel, Turkey, Syria or any other country but that doesn't automatically means antisemitism. We are not antisemite and actually just the opposite we condemn anyone who is antisemite.
Just few words about Turkish Foreign Policy, Turkey has all the rights to make good connections with its’ neighbors. Turkey is in one of the most problematic areas of the World and having good relations with your neighbors only helps Turkey and the World. I'd have hard time understanding why Turkey shouldn't form good ties with its’ neighboring states? Believe me they cannot transition Turkey but Turkey can be a good example and a force to transition for them. There are many reports that most of these Arabic countries are watching Turkish TV’s admiringly, this is a good thing. You should be more alarmed if those countries don't have a relation with Turkey and if they were more isolated.
However if you want to have the former governments who were shying away to form any relations with Muslim countries based on the fact that they would get criticism from West like yourself, then I would agree with you, Turkey now has a national government who only works for the Turkish national interests not for other people and believe me it's in the best interest of everyone in the World that Turkey becomes stronger in the region, becomes even a better example by entering EU and it'll be a poster child for the Muslim world. I really don't understand why you are not supporting Turkey to increase its' influence over the Muslim world? That's a good thing.
I found your blog on google and read a few of your other posts. I just added you to my Google News Reade . Keep up the good work. Look forward to reading more from you in the future.