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Gallup: Stimulus Bill STILL Favored by Majority

Posted by ELROD in Economy, Politics.
Feb 6th, 2009 | Comments

This is not a post about the substantive merits of the stimulus package. I was AWOL this morning fighting off (successfully!) a speeding ticket in Sevier County so I’ve been a bit out of the loop. Sorry y’all!

Anyway, this is about the public support of the bill. Gallup says that 52 percent of Americans support the stimulus bill and 38 percent oppose it. Interestingly, the number has moved only a net of 3 points against it since early January.

The partisan breakdown is indicative of where the drop in support – little as it is – lies: Republicans. In fact, support for the bill has gone UP among BOTH Democrats and Independents since early January (+3 for Dems and +1 for Independents) while dropping by 10 among Republicans.

Also noteworthy is the fact the Collins-Nelson plan to shave up to $200 billion from the plan actually pleases nobody – and makes it less popular overall. Again, this is most true for Democrats and Independents; the reverse holds true for Republicans.

It appears that the polling from the election campaign where Democrats and Independents lined up on one side and Republicans went the other way still holds.

It’s certainly true that many Democrats and Independents have criticized the plan. And there are certainly some Republicans that support it.

But the notion that support has somehow collapsed for the plan is not reflected in the polling. (Note that Rasmussen found lower support from the beginning to the end, but they never released their partisan results so it’s hard to see if it’s just Republicans opposing it or everybody).

More importantly, there’s a reason people want this plan. The economy is in TERRIBLE shape. And people want something BIG that will affect THEM.

Just wanted to point out the politics of this – the substance is a different matter. But these are elected officials working on this and they are certainly aware of this polling.

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AustinRoth

Hmm, and just Wednesday Rasmussen had it at 37%. Polling methodology matters.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/...

GeorgeSorwell

Gallup revealed its methodology, as always, at the end of its report. Maybe Rasmussen buries its methodology somewhere in the middle, but I didn't see it.

It seems to me that the important thing is to have a poll that muddies the water, no matter who publishes it, or what the methodology was.

elrod

I'll also add that while Rasmussen is a good pollster - especially on elections - his polls on the economy are generally skewed. You can see it in his reports, where he speaks often of "investors" and "non-investors." While it's true that anybody with a 401(k) is an "investor," the division of the two is largely meaningless...unless you were trying some sort of messaging targeted at the "investor class" (defined as virtually everybody). Polls from Rasmussen on economic matters skew more conservative fairly consistently. The question, however, is why did the numbers move more strongly in the negative for Rasmussen than Gallup. Without seeing the internals, there's no way to know.

CStanley

Well, Gallup now seems to be trying to bury this one that they did a few days ago:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/114097/Americans-Sup...

Which comes pretty close to the Rasmussen number of 37% support, since this Gallup poll is showing that only 38% want it passed as is, and another 37% want something passed but only with major changes.

The degree to which that makes it reconcile leads me to think this isn't a sampling issue, but how the questions are worded. Majority want something to pass, but it slips well below 50% if the question asks about this specific package that's on the table.

casualobserver

But the notion that support has somehow collapsed for the plan is not reflected in the polling......More importantly, there’s a reason people want this plan. The economy is in TERRIBLE shape. And people want something BIG that will affect THEM.

**********************

Then why all the foot-dragging and political drama? If the people want your plan, then call up Harry on the private line and tell him to call for the vote. Surely, a well-oiled administration can beat, bribe or cajole two votes.

I'm not seeing this as Republicans actually doing the "holding-up" of the process. There is only one gavel in the Senate and the Republicans do not control it.

lurxst

I want to hear how Elrod beat his speeding rap. Congratulations by the way.

I think a lot of the poll variance has everything to do with the language. People want something done, there is high marks for that, but as the questions get more specific about a particular tactic people start to change their responses out of uncertainty, lack of info or influence from anti-American pundits and talk radio hosts. I have also heard that rasmussen is often deigned to be the right's favorite pollster.

elrod

CS,
The wording is included on the Gallup site. The poll the other day found 38% supporting it and 37% supporting it with "major changes." Problem is: who knows what those major changes are?

This was a more specifically worded poll, with a price tag and everything.

lurxt,
The speeding ticket was completely bogus. Even the judge agreed I would have to be driving a "rocket ship" to accelerate to the speed the officer claimed I was driving. Basically: 0 to 71 in about 50 feet with a minivan filled with five people.

Silhouette

Our government is weird. It is a nation OF the People BY the People and FOR the People. Politicians seem to forget that . They work for us. And in doing so we rely on their expertise, or their ability to contract impartial expertise to wield power on behalf of the teeming majority, the working poor to make competant decision despite popular trends. No time is more so illustrative of this than now. We don't need to hear the whining of the un or under-educated about a matter as critical as restabilizing. More what Congress should pay attention to is the machine, and how if it stops running smoothly the caca will hit the fan.

Keeping that in mind, they should put money back in the banks through the People. Not directly, but through us, through our mortgages. They should stabilize housing values and stimulate spending all at once with one magic bullet. And that is mortgage-interest subsidies, on a monthly basis. Try it for a year. Spread it out. We won't hoard it, you have my word. I've been looking for a new truck for the farm and this would enable me to get it...and a lot of other things I simply stopped buying since things went south..

Don Quijote

The speeding ticket was completely bogus. Even the judge agreed I would have to be driving a "rocket ship" to accelerate to the speed the officer claimed I was driving. Basically: 0 to 71 in about 50 feet with a minivan filled with five people.

Somebody has to pay for all those tax cuts, they don't come cheap.

elrod

And we have no income tax in Tennessee. That means the government relies more on these bogus "fees" for funding. We have one of the highest beer taxes in the country.

That said, 95% of the people in traffic came to plead guilty. And nearly all of them were given 90-day warnings with nothing more than $42 court costs.

Note to self: If I get a ticket (that's legit), go to court and plead guilty.

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