The RNC Elects the Chair, But the Base Decides the Future

As the RNC goes through the motions of finding a new (or perhaps not so new) leader, many Republicans may be thinking the same thing as CNN: all hope rests on this decision. While I don’t disagree that the leader of the Party is an important post and that the right or wrong person will make a difference in the future of the Party, I think it is misguided to pin the entire future of the Party on that one person.

The people who really determine the future of the Party are its base, the rank and file members who decide to get out and vote, or choose to stay home. The folks who decide that they will give up significant amounts of their free time to volunteer for the Party by operating phone banks or going door-to-door or just providing general logistical support in a myriad of ways.

We all too often look at politics as a top-down affair, that the leader, whomever that happens to be, will fashion a master plan to victory and the elected representatives with then carry out the apparatus determined by the official higher ups. So long as we agree, whether we be Democrats or Republicans, then all is well. But, in fact, the pyramid is quite a bit reversed. A leader only has as much latitude as the most dissenting rank and file member is willing to allow him or her. One cannot go out and devise a strategy that completely ignores the fundamental supporters of one’s Party.

Ask John McCain.

McCain, for all his foibles, was perhaps the best Republican available to run against Barack Obama. That he had demonstrated a certain tendency towards being a maverick in the past, had thought for himself, had engaged in truly bi-partisan work (which is not to suggest that Obama had not), that he was not your run of the mill conservative – all of these should have been able to work to McCain’s advantage in pulling support from that always sought after group of voters: the independents.

But while you might have heard the word “maverick” come out Sarah Palin’s mouth enough to consider it a conjunctive, and while you might have seen McCain ads and surrogates questioning Obama’s bi-partisan credentials, none of those strengths actually became the centre piece of McCain’s campaign. McCain spent the majority of his campaign trying to convince the base that he was “conservative-enough” for them, ostensibly even his vice presidential pick in Palin, perhaps the biggest decision a candidate makes on the trail, was designed to send that message.

In as far as the base’s need for reassuring consumed McCain, they failed in allowing him to make the necessary maneuvers to at least have a shot at squeaking out a victory.

So, of course leaders are important, but their ability to realize a future for their party is determined by the willingness of the base to go along. With everything going against Republicans in this current political climate, the focus needs to be on those folks “sitting around the kitchen table”, even more than the person ascending the throne.