The Middle Shifted Away From The GOP In 2008: An Outcome Of Neglect
The year-end reviews have started, and several days ago NBC Political Director Chuck Todd took a look at 2008 and concluded:
1. The middle shifted away from the GOP.
2. It occurred in hard-nosed political terms when the Republican Party steadily, inexorably lost moderate and independent voters in election 2008. A good part of Obama’s win will be credited to Obama’s skills and charisma, to John McCain’s fumbles and to the economy’s meltdown. But Obama also had another ally: the Republican Party’s often-dismissive attitude towards the sentiments of moderates, independent and centrists.
None of those blocs are monolithic. But more often than not the GOP paid lip-service — not serious attention to — the voters who helped decide this election and many past ones. (If you don’t believe that, read this book: Independent Nation, by John Avlon.)
In reality, this is a trend that was quite evident in polls leading up to election day, the opinions of main stream media columnists and even in posts on modest weblogs such as The Moderate Voice (regular readers could see writers evolve before their eyes). There was a drip-drip-drip of moderate, centrist and independent voter support way from the Republican Party and its Presidential ticket — ironically during a year when it had a candidate that had worried Democrats due to his longtime appeal to “the middle’s” voters.
There were several tip-offs that the 2008 incarnation of the GOP and its Presidential ticket were losing what some call the “mushy middle” but which history indicates in electoral terms is often the “mighty middle.” One key tip-off was the surprising number of Bush 41 administration officials and associates who clearly were going to vote against their own party. If the party could not even hold onto supporters of Poppy’s Republicanism (and Colin Powell was merely the highest profile one) — which was far different than his son’s — then how could it hold onto the moderates and independents who tend to favor consensus, diplomacy and issue-oriented politics?
15 Responses to “The Middle Shifted Away From The GOP In 2008: An Outcome Of Neglect”
What part of 5$ trillion in debt was moving away from the middle. What part of growing the government was the moving away from the middle? What part of NCLB was the moving away from the middle part? What part of pandering to illegal aliens was the conservative part? What part of requiring lenders to lend to every minority that had a stolen I.D. was the conservative part? What part of being involved in every conflict in the world was the conseravtive party.
If anything, the Bush Administration shows what happens when stupid, incompetent inside the beltway types try to appeal to moderates: policy failures, massive debt, and failures. If a Republican is going to have a 20% approval rating, at least the Republican should have balanced the budget.
McCain lost an election by a surprisingly small margin in the popular vote. This was with the backlash towards Bush that splashed on him, Obama outspending him by astronomical amounts, and the press all but declaring themselves part of Obama's campaign. Personally I don't think McCain did to bad under those circumstances and don't really believe it's indicative of anything. If in 2 or 4 years things keep going then will see but I'm not losing sleep. Lets face facts if the Dems let the nutty left run things they will alienate 60 to 70% of the population and you'll see the same landslide victories in congress as you did under Clinton. Obama does seem to be trying to be inclusive and may prevent that, which will anger his base so who knows. I( just think the hype is way overstated.
Sarah Palin first enticed, then spooked a lot of folks in-the-middle. It wasn't her social conservatism that did it, rather her seeming anti-intellectualism. Many moderates can tolerate the former, but scoff at the latter, Colin Powell being one of them.
Colin Powell could not tolerate the idea of being out of favor. He jumped on the Republican bandwagon when it would advance his standing in DC and he jumped on the Obama bandwagon for the same reason.
After listening to the ignorance of the Congressional Black Caucus for decades, it is hard to believe the elite white moderates really care about intellectualism. They will openly support black politicians who have no idea what mean or median mean.
It wasn't neglect.
It was the logical outcome of Republican Economic Policy, Cheap labor conservatism: Finding any way to make money, screwing your workers, destroying the seed corn and moving on to the next sector of the economy, unfortunately there are all sectors to invaded and the consequences are there for all to see. The wealthy are wealthier than ever, the middle class in on the edge of bankruptcy, and the number of poor are growing.
I agree with Don Q.
The RNC has become all about capitulating to big corporate donors who expect deregulation, huge tax breaks, weakened or broken unions, and instant access to power. In the process, the middle class was weakened and slid down into the lower class. Consumer law was weakened as well. Why do you think McCain's lame Joe the Plumber schtick was such a flop??? People saw through it.
The middle class has basically reached the point where the blinders are off in terms of where their economic future lies under Republicanism. Adjusted for inflation incomes have been flat for years. At the same time the amount being taken from paychecks to cover health insurance for those who have it has been going up while benefits go down, giving a double economic hit. With the deflation of home values and widespread elimination of home equity lines of credit the cushion that has been being counted on by so many has vanished, ripping the covers off of the real economic situation of the middle class in a way that is impossible to ignore. So now it would seem that many Americans are being forced to look past the old easy answers that Republicans offered and admit that something new needs to be done. The RNC is incapable of admitting this and will keep trying the old ways for several election cycles to come because it will still work in some places and offer them just a glimmer of hope that they can avoid change and still succeed with the strategies that began not with Karl Rove but with Lee Atwater. I actually have no idea how long it will be before they catch on to the corner this strategy will paint them into.
Jim,
Look at two of the bluest places in the U.S., Manhatten and DC. Neither one is a place for the middle class. Both require advanced degrees from the top universities to make a decent living. How are those people going to create economic opportunity in Michigan, Ohio. West Virginia, Washington STate? If people worried about their take home pay, they would not vote for the party who believes that tax increases have no affect on the economy. If people were really worried about the price of health care, they would not vote for the party that wants to maintain open borders and unlimited immigration. If people want their homes to maintain values, then how is a program of no evictions (See Chicago) and unlimited immigration of the poor from the rest of the world going to help maintain home values or help schools?
If you want to talk about old ideas, how about the idea that there can be more government goodies and someone else will pay for it.
If you want to criticize the Bush Admnistration at least talk about the massive increase in the national debt, the expansion of the government, the open borders, the inability to coordinate government programs, or the ability to think more than a week ahead.
SD, that is one of the silliest excuses for a logical argument that I've ever seen, but it does seem to be a favorite among the political conservative crowd. First, the idea that a modern industrial society can work with no government intervention and no social safety net is far older than any idea of “government goodies” and only the hopelessly ignorant don't know that it was tried and it failed miserably. Read your Dickens. He lived it.
As far as the “bluest places” argument goes, to pick two cities out of a nation of over a third of a billion people is a logical fallacy that is constantly repeated by you and far too many “conservatives”. Here is a map of the election results from the Presidential election just past.. Wow. Look at all that blue outside of New York and DC. Every one of your arguments is based on fallacious assumptions and RNC talking points that bear no resemblance to reality. One reason Obama is now the president elect is that enough people finally caught on to what's really happening and are tired of being lied to by political hyper-partisans. Your claims are perfect examples of them.
SD,
Open Borders? who are the biggest supporters of Open Borders? Big Business, the Wall Street Journal and Libertarians. You know why? It increases the supply of labor and drives down wages.
In what year since Republicans took over Congress has the number of H1B visas been reduced? H1B visas serve the purpose of bringing in trained professionals ( Nurses, Doctors, Programmers, etc) cause according to American Business there is a permanent shortage of qualified professionals<sarcasm> willing to work for minimum wage</sarcasm>.
In which year since Republicans took over the White House has border enforcement been increased? in which Illegal alien laws been enforced? and when they are who pays the penalty? the employer (who hired a bunch of people who don't speak any English) or the undocumented workers who are doing the best they can to survive?
Get over it SD, cheap labor is the core of all Republican Economic Policy.
DQ,
La Raza, the public sector employees, the service unions, and Democratic Party organizers are all open border supporters. They believes that importing millions of poor people will add automatic Democratic voters to the roles while increasing the demand for public sector provided services.
One of the reasons that the Republicans will soon be irrelevant is because of their support of open borders and unlimited immigration even through it harmed most of the people who would lean toward voting for Republicans. After President Bush pushed Amnesty, the donations to the Republican Party collapsed. However, the core Democratic voters such as blacks vote overwhelmingly for Democrats who support open borders and unlimited immigration even though they will be hurt by open voters.
Jim,
In which of those blue counties are the best opprotunities for the middle class. SF, LA, Baltimore, DC, NYC, Boston? I would love for you to tell me which neighborhood in SF is the place where the blue collar whites live.
Do you really think than an Ivy Leaguer who attended private prep schools cares at all about the middle class. Do you really think that an administration filled with prep schoolers who attend Ivy leaguers will propose one idea that will improve schools (because busing, diversity, and self-esteem is not going to do it), improve standard of living (standing at the bus stop is not going to cut it), or improve employment prospects (remember, everyone cannot work for the government).
Bush was an imcompetent fool who was far from being a conservative. However, please do not spend all of your time kissing the add of someone who has not spent a day in office yet.
SD, perfect display of that “us vs. them” mentality. Got a surprise for you. “Ivy Leaguer” liberals are not as selfish and greedy, nor as stupid as you think. And beyond that, your derisive characterizations do not describe most Democrats at all. But that's OK, just keep “misunderestimating” us.
The truth is pretty simple, and was summed up by Jim Hightower's dad, in a quote he often reminds us of:
“Everyone does better when everyone does better.”
greendreams,
And how are the policies of wealth redistribution going to make everyone better. If it slows the economy and discourages job creation, it does not make everyone better. IT also shows how the culture of DC does not translate to the rest of the U.S. In DC, people will work for free to be close to power and in hopes of future power. Yet, if you do not pay healthcare workers well, they will not show up in the middle of the night to work at the emergency room.
Obama and his elite Ivy leaguers are the types who surround themselves with the children of the elite who will work for free and kill themselves to impress people and thus believe that every job can be filled at low wages.
Going back to the original topic, I have abandoned the GOP. First registered as a Republican in 1986, but always a moderate, I have now given up on the Republicans completely. As a party, they are dogmatic, unethical, short-sighted, and patently uninterested in the health of the nation as a whole. As I see it, they are only concerned with their own self interests and are completely willing to screw over the nation if it means their own profit streams or ideologies are left intact.
Not that I'm a Democrat, either. I consider the Democratic Party to be too stupid to govern, this view is based on the record of Congressional Democrats. The problem is, in this polarized nation of ours, very few people seem to be interested in making the best decision based on the facts or at least thought-out suppositions. It's true that governing is a difficult task, there are a lot of variables both known and unknown, but right now neither party seems particularly capable of making sound judgements based on reality and instead push the same old, tired, jingoistic foolishness.
I do have high hopes for the Obama administration, it appears they are going to be a fact-based group interested in running the country based on intelligent decision making rather than foolish dogmatic beliefs (or, even worse, a penchant to provide favors for their own supporters). No blinders on here, but for now, I'm willing to cut some slack.