US-Iranian Relations Under Obama?

Howard LaFranchi has some informed speculations. Those with whom LaFranchi spoke speculate that, owing to our own financial crisis, the one precipitated by falling oil prices in Iran, and the upcoming Iranian presidential election in which incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is, by no means, a shoo-in, Obama will take deliberate approach to confronting and eliminating Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

The new president is, according to LaFranchi’s reporting, likely to seek new sanctions against the Iranian regime while simultaneously lower level talks on issues of mutual interest. Two other intriguing prospective elements in Obama’s approach to Iran:

• An endorsement of the Israeli-Syrian talks, “thereby signaling to Iran that a new American approach is at work in the region – one that engages Tehran’s assumed partners.” This will put some pressure on Tehran, making the regime there look intransigent and out of touch in the face such US openness.
• Improving US relations with Russia. LaFranchi quotes Geoffrey Kemp, director of regional strategic programs at the Nixon Center in Washington as saying: “It’s our mishandling of the Russia portfolio that has emboldened the Iranians.”

Of course, during the presidential campaign, Senator Hillary Clinton made much of Obama’s willingness to talk with people like Ahmadinejad. In one of the early Democratic debates, the President-elect seemed to indicate a willingness to meet with such folks without preconditions or the carefully calibrated diplomacy necessary to make “summits” work. Obama later refined his position.

Now, according to LaFranchi’s report, the questions of Team Obama is not whether to talk with the Iranian regime, but how, when, and under what circumstances. Although this more calibrated approach is some distance from what Obama first discussed in 2007, it nonetheless will represent a departure from the approach of the current administration.

[This has been cross-posted at my personal blog.]