An Internet hub for moderates, centrists, and independents, with domestic and international news, analysis, original reporting, and popular features from the left, center, and right

« Mocking Biden

Confronting ‘Catastrophe’: Debating the Proper Role of Government – O Globo of Brazil »

Gallup: McCain Narrowing The Gap With Obama

Posted by JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief in Politics.
Oct 1st, 2008 | Comments

Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain has just gotten some good polling news amid a slew of downer polls for his Presidential campaign: the latest Gallup Daily tracking poll now shows him narrowing the gap with Democratic Sen. Barack Obama:

The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update of registered voters finds Barack Obama at 48%, and John McCain at 44%, marking a slight narrowing of the race from the eight percentage point margin Obama held earlier this week.

The latest results are based on interviewing conducted Sept. 28-30, a time period in which the American public watched the Dow Jones Industrial Average seesaw between a 700+ point loss and a 400+ point gain on Monday and Tuesday, while attempts by Congress to pass some type of legislation dealing with the financial crisis continued.

Barack Obama has moved to an eight point or higher lead several times since June, including after his foreign trip in July, after the Democratic National Convention, and more recently late last week. In each instance Obama was unable to sustain his lead, and John McCain was able to narrow the gap, as is happening now – to, at least, a modest degree. In addition to continuing action on the part of the Senate and Congress on a financial rescue bill, Thursday’s vice presidential debate between Sarah Palin and Joe Biden could potentially have an effect on the horserace.

Look for Palin to do much better in that debate than many have predicted. The reason: expectations for Palin have been leveled to below sea level. She has also basically spent 4 days in a debate camp run by McCain advisers, many of them former Bush campaign operatives. She’ll have lots of info, prepared answers and will have zingers ready to use at the first instance.

Also look for Biden’s words to be carefully vetted by GOPers since a gaffe by him, an inaccuracy or a flip comment will be an opening to shift the debate from the economy to a personality issue again and raise up Palin’s positives by tearing down Biden’s positives. In a sense, the debate tomorrow is more about Biden than Palin.

This poll is further evidence that Obama is far from closing the sale and that. even with the bad economy. Democrats can take nothing for granted and Republicans shouldn’t give up hope just yet.

  • elrod
    Once again, Joe singles out a Gallup tracker when every other poll shows a steady race. Why bother?

    We now have Time, Pew, Rasmussen and Hotline showing Obama leading between 6-8 points. Research 2000 has Obama up 10 and Gallup has Obama up 4.

    All of these polls were taken the same time. The only other poll to show Obama "only" leading by 4 is the WaPo/ABC poll, which mysteriously added 6 points more of white, married people compared to last week's sample (which had Obama up 9).

    No, the election is not over and done with.

    But there is no evidence yet that the recent boost for Obama has dissipated.

    To Joe and everybody else out there: don't rely on a single poll - good or bad. Use the polling averages. There are different models out there - RCP, Pollster, 538. But they all recognize that pollsters get different results.

    For that matter, I'd say the same thing about the Quinnipiac polls of FL, OH and PA. If Obama really was ahead by 8 in OH and FL and 15 in PA this race would be over. Now. But we need other poling evidence before we can be sure that Obama is up by that much.
  • roro80
    How???? What has happened in this race that I'm missing such that McCain could have gained ANYTHING over that period of time? Also, as I do a double take: what elrod said.
  • Also look for Biden’s words to be carefully vetted by GOPers since a gaffe by him, an inaccuracy or a flip comment will be an opening to shift the debate from the economy to a personality issue again and raise up Palin’s positives by tearing down Biden’s positives. In a sense, the debate tomorrow is more about Biden than Palin.


    I think this is totally overestimating the effectiveness of GOP operatives. For better or worse, the story since the conventions has been Sarah Palin and, more recently, the economy. After the debate is over, I would predict that most of the analysis will focus on Palin's performance. Biden merely has to keep his gaffes below Red Alert level and the public & media fascination with Palin will continue unabated.
  • christoofar
    I'm thinking the GOP will try to make more of Gwen Ifill's " allegience" to Obama, especially if Palin shows poorly. But if Biden can just ignore Palin & answer the questions as if he is up there alone, he should do just fine.
    I'm expecting Palin to be seen as doing fairly well, both due to the reasons given (low expectations) & also by the fact that she actually shows up in front of a TV audience.
  • SteveK
    What elrod said... too.
  • mlhradio
    Remember the old saying, "Overnight is a lifetime in politics."

    Don't get caught up in any single poll or any snapshot in time, because change happens so quickly and dramatically. Two weeks ago on FiveThirtyEight, Obama was given slightly less than a 50% chance of winning the election after a huge bump in the polls for McCain from the convention. Today, that has swung around to an 85% chance to win.

    Who knows? In two more weeks, it could swing entirely the other direction, with Obama on the short end of the stick. A crisis, a natural disaster, a scandal, an October surprise? In any case, don't pay too much attention to single daily tracking polls, watch the long-term trends instead.

    And I also gotta razz Joe, and agree with elrod. He had to pick the one single poll that was favorable to McCain, when literally every single other poll over the past week has gone the other direction. Take those blinders off, Joe!
  • JSpencer
    Well, I tend to agree with Joe on this. There is still time for polls to jump around, and there is still time for the GOP to insinuate themselves back into the game. In otherwords, nothing should be taken for granted. I base that very simply on campaigns of the past that defied expectations - some for and some against my druthers.

    As for Thursday's debate, the buildup has been so great, it's hard for me to think it's going to be the entertainment spectacle we've all hoped for. That said, I hope for at least one Tina Fey moment. And Biden had better not give much ammo to the GOP, because they will spin and twist for all they are worth with whatever they do get.
  • SteveK
    It seems we've had another thread attacked by the "zero monkey"!

    Roro80, ChrisWWW, christoofar, myself, mhlradio, and JSpencer have all been 'down rated' for our opinions by someone without the courage to simply post an argument...

    You're a real class act 'zero'.

    caveat: I am guilty of using the 'rating tool' in threads that I chose not to take the time to comment in them BUT when I do I will only 'up rate' comments I agree with... never 'down rate' those I disagree with.
  • SergioM
    The Gallup Poll is notrorious among professionals for being the most unreliable and inaccurate of all the major polls, so anytime I see any any news item referring to it, I'm highly suspicious
  • mlhradio
    Eh, everyone's entitled to their opinion. No biggie. (Frankly, I doubt that most TMV readers realize you can actually rate commenters, anyway).
blog comments powered by Disqus
© 2005-2009 The Moderate Voice | Site design by Elegant Themes | Site customization, hosting, and security by Enxit Group, LLC