Did Russia ‘Win’ the Georgia Crisis? Not By a Long Shot: Le Figaro

Now that the crisis over Georgia has subsided, where do things stand? Has Russia ‘won.’ French historian Alexandre Adler thinks not. According to Adler, while Russia has successfully maneuvered Ukraine into swearing off NATO – in almost every other way, things have gone badly for Moscow.

Adler writes in part:

“The relationship between Russia and the former republics of the Soviet Union have spectacularly deteriorated … China’s has resoundingly refused to show the slightest solidarity with Moscow … there has been a massive divestment on Russia’s Stock Exchange.”

Adler reckons that given these setbacks:

“Clearly, it’s an opportune time to avenge the strong-arm tactics that have caused such fear around over the world and for the Western alliance to negotiate an end to this crisis with Russia, which would immediately stabilize a large portion of the planet.”

The height of the Russo-Georgian crisis seems now to have passed. The time has come for real assessments. Russia has benefitted from its initial firmness, at least in one theater: Ukraine. In Kiev, a very broad consensus has emerged to put off the country’s membership in NATO. It must certainly be noted that President Yushchenko, the main advocate of a political-military alliance with the West, has experienced a spectacular collapse of his political credibility at the polls, almost parallel to the nearly complete recovery of his face, which was once marked by the attempted poisoning he was a victim of. But the pushing aside of his prime minister and ally in the “Orange Revolution,” Yulia Tymoshenko, has laid the groundwork for the next general election with a coalition that includes his own party and the “regions,” comprising the bulk of Russian-speaking voters from Donbass, Crimea and Odessa. With the return to power of qualified representatives of the non-Ukrainian minorities [pro-Russian], Moscow now has an ipso-facto right to inspect if not veto all decisions of the Ukrainian government. Since French and German foreign ministries have indicated their refusal to begin a process as destabilizing as letting Ukraine and Georgia into NATO, some may believe that Putin’s reconstituted team has just won a great victory.

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