Palin and the Polls
The CW at the moment is that McCain is surging in the polls. (And, indeed, he is ahead of Obama nationally, up by 2.8 points in the RCP Average.) But what are the polls really saying? Specifically, what are the state-by-state polls saying? Here’s the indispensable Nate Silver with yesterday’s numbers:
[T]he popular vote and the Electoral College are significantly diverging. Although the Republicans seem to be polling stronger than they were in the pre-convention period almost everywhere, the differences are much larger in traditionally red states, particularly in the South and the rural West (Colorado and Nevada, by the way, are not rural states). Basically, I think the Republicans are getting the evangelical vote, and a significant fraction of the Perot vote.
Unfortunately, these are not particularly useful votes for them to have in terms of the electoral math.
*****
McCain’s gain in our popular vote projection has been 2.1 points. Note, however, that his gains have been less than that in essentially all of the most important swing states, including Ohio, Michigan, Florida, Colorado, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. Only Virginia is on the other side of the line, and then only barely so.
As a result of all this, the Electoral College remains too close to call, even though McCain has a 1-2 point advantage in the popular vote.
In other words, Palin has provided a huge boost for McCain, just not as much of a boost as the CW suggests. While she’s helping him pull further ahead in the states he should be win anyway, many of the key swing states remain close.
The question is, has McCain-Palin peaked? They seem to have unified the party and consolidated its support, particularly among conservatives, and especially the social conservatives of the religious right, many of whom were suspicious of, if not downright hostile towards, McCain prior to the Palin pick. They are evidently going after centrist independents with their (substance-free and largely insincere) calls for change and reform, but it’s unlikely they’ll be able to win many over given their extremist platform and warm embrace of the religious right, which is the very purpose of Palin’s presence on the ticket. (She’s one of them. They now like McCain.) Indeed, while Palin is undeniably popular at the moment, a media celebrity, she is popular mainly among conservatives in the Republican base. Centrist independents have not liked what they have seen and heard from her.
Another question is, can Obama rebound? I addressed that question on Tuesday. Quick answer: Yes, he can, but he’ll need to fight for it.
Both the narrative and the momentum have been on McCain’s side pretty much since the Palin announcement the day after Obama’s speech at Invesco, and it has been tough for Obama-Biden to break through in any meaningful way. But, despite all that, and despite McCain’s surge into the lead, the polls show a much more nuanced picture of the race than the CW would lead us to believe.
14 Responses to “Palin and the Polls”
CW stands for “Conventional Wisdom”.
And the conventional wisdom has been pretty close to completely wrong this year.
Michael,
With Washington and Wisconsin tied and no one knowing what Oregon and Minnesota looks like post-Palin, don’t you feel Obama is going down in a Dukakis style loss?
Jwest, I think you're indulging in a d September daydream.
Spence,
I should have given you the links.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/wa_obama_49_mccai…
http://www.pollster.com/polls/wi/08-wi-pres-ge-…
Washington and Wisconsin are both in the margin of error with the only poll taken post-Palin. The electoral counts Michael is talking about are running on pre-Palin polls averaged in.
Within a week or two, you’ll have about 14 states either solid or leaning Obama. The balance will be McCain or undecided.
jwest–
That's a mighty bold prediction.
You'll never get to be a professional pundit that way!!
Which are the 14 pro-Obama/undecided states?
Keep laughing guys until you forget the landscape was such that you should have been up by 20 at this point.
George,
I might need to revise that estimate down for Obama.
There were some new polls today, but I’m having a little trouble with the drill down.
Look at this one from Michigan.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/IA_Mic…
McCain is winning independents by 18 points. The pollster must be weighting the dem/rep split with old party identification numbers in order to get to the 45/44 McCain lead.
I’ve sent some emails for to ask for clarification.
Looks like the GOP has gotten anher bounce.
A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latest USA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters' “generic ballot” preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110263/Battle-Congre…
Who has the right experience to be president:
McCain 80%
Obama 46%
http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK_Poll_91208…
Yes, it does suck indeed to be a democrat when the polls come out.
“Centrist independents have not liked what they have seen and heard from her.”
Where does he get this stuff from? (Oh yeah, that's right, he just makes it up.)
Here's the actual data. Note the independent voter movement to column #2.
If the 2008 presidential election were held today, would you vote for:
1. Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden 2. Republicans John McCain and
Sarah Palin 3. (Other) 4. (Don’t know) 5. (Would not vote)
1 2 3 4 5
8-9 Sep 08* 42% 45 2 10 2
Democrats 79% 9 1 10 1
Republicans 5% 88 1 6 1
Independents 31% 46 4 15 3
19-20 Aug 08 42% 39 4 14 1
Democrats 78% 8 3 10 1
Republicans 8% 82 2 8 -
Independents 31% 30 8 28 3
jwest–
Your link doesn't work. I went to RealClearPolitics.com and found this for Michigan. It shows Obama with a slight lead.
The aggregator I've been looking at is by Pollster.com. The electoral vote map has been very stable for months. But since the conventions there have been changes away from Obama and toward McCain.
Since you seem fairly knowledgeable about this, how does the Pollster map look to you?
Also: Any theories why?
jwest cheerypicked the only Michigan poll showing McCain in the lead.
From InsiderAdvantage: Insider Advantage
RCP uses five polls for their composite, only IA has McCain in the lead.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/pr…
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 09/05 – 09/10 – 47.2 45.2 Obama +2.0
InAdv/PollPosition 09/10 – 09/10 503 LV 44 45 McCain +1
Rasmussen 09/10 – 09/10 700 LV 51 46 Obama +5
CNN/Time 09/07 – 09/09 966 RV 49 45 Obama +4
Strategic Vision (R) 09/05 – 09/07 1200 LV 45 44 Obama +1
PPP (D) 09/06 – 09/07 1147 LV 47 46 Obama +1
I bet the Rassmussen poll doesn't support the IA poll. JW must favor Traverse City during the Cherry Festive.
http://www.visittraversecity.com/
Here's the Michigan Polls (various pollsters) 1/8/07 – 9/10/08
http://www.pollster.com/polls/mi/08-mi-pres-ge-…
The current system does not reliably reflect the nationwide popular vote. The statewide winner-take-all rules makes it possible for a candidate to win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide. This has occurred in one of every 14 presidential elections.
In the past six decades, there have been six presidential elections in which a shift of a relatively small number of votes in one or two states would have elected (and, of course, in 2000, did elect) a presidential candidate who lost the popular vote nationwide.
Nationwide popular election of the President is the only system that makes all states competitive, guarantees that the candidate with the most popular votes nationwide wins the Presidency, and makes every vote equal.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Every vote would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections.
The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes—that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes — 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
susan