Democrats could win the election with a vote on SCHIP

Democrats have a trump card up their sleeve this year that could possibly win the election (or at least shift the momentum in Obama’s favor), and they either don’t know it or they for some reason are unwilling to play it.

From the New York Times:

Congressional Democrats have scrapped plans for another vote on expansion of the Children’s Health Insurance Program, thus sparing Republicans from a politically difficult vote just weeks before elections this fall.

Before the summer recess, Democrats had vowed repeatedly to force another vote on the popular program. But Democrats say they have shifted course, after concluding that President Bush would not sign their legislation and that they could not override his likely veto.

I don’t get this. The majority of Americans favored expanding SCHIP last year, and health care is a major voter concern that is getting overshadowed by other issues.

So why in the world would Democrats back down on the one battle that, politically, they’re sure to win? As soon as the bill comes up for a vote, the entire focus of the campaign is going to shift to health care, which is good for Obama. McCain has barely articulated a health care policy, and voters seem ready for genuine change from the current system.

There are basically two possible outcomes. The political pressure may get so intense that a few Republicans cross the aisle to override Bush’s veto. Fine, the bill passess and Democrats win the battle. But they also win if the bill fails. First, it puts Bush back in the headlines, and the more voters are reminded of the current administration, the more they’re going to want something different. And it puts John McCain in a tight spot. Odds are, he would either vote against it or (more likely given his recent attendance record) not show up to vote.

And that’s when Obama should go on the offensive. I’m not going to get into the actual merits of either side’s argument about the policy, but it’s politically tough to defend a vote against a health insurance program for children.

Rahm Emanuel has the right idea when he says, “Those who opposed this bill can face the voters and explain why they believe 10 million kids should not get health coverage.” But that’s not going to happen as long as the issue sits on the back burner.

And if the Democrats don’t take control of this Senate session and steer the course of the debate, the Republicans will. Does anyone believe for a moment that they will back down on offshore drilling just because they think it won’t pass? They will gladly shut down the government just to make energy the central election issue.

I usually don’t like characterizations of Democrats as spineless because it implies compromise and nuance are undesirable in politics. But they surrendered this battle, one they could have won, before it even began. Sometimes, the shoe fits.

Cross-posted at Ablogistan.