Where’s Waldo? errr… Obama?
It has been noted by some that there have been a plethora of items here about Sarah Palin and not much else. I’m clearly guilty of the same sin of omission, but not for lack of searching. It’s just that not only does the entire country seem focused on the fresh, red meat of the Alaskan Governor, but the Democratic ticket doesn’t seem to be doing very much of note this week. (And I plan to examine why today.) Granted, Obama did talk to senior citizens about Social Security and scare them with warnings that McCain would cut benefits, privatize the program or raise the retirement age, but it was really retreaded material. (McCain denies these charges, by the way.) He also showed up in Pennsylvania to talk about the five year record high unemployment numbers and the shedding of jobs, but there was also nothing really inflammatory there either. The most interesting note from Team Obama may have been the agreement to appear in a non-partisan appearance with John McCain on Sept. 11 and to put politics aside for a few hours. Nice… but also really not anything to feed the ravening maw of the news beast.
So I will both pose and attempt to answer the following question: what is Obama up to? Is he actually trying to capture the media spotlight but being shoved down below the noise level by the storm of Palinmania? Or is he, in fact, lying low? My choice is the latter, and it could either prove brilliant or suicidal.
While I’m fully aware that I may be projecting some of my own feelings into my speculation on what’s running through the minds of Obama’s advisers, it does seem possible that they are currently taking a wait-and-see attitude about McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin. They may be hoping that the selection will prove disastrous and Palin will become an albatross around the neck of John McCain. If a tight election could be turned into a widening lead for Obama by virtue of Big Mac shooting himself in the foot, it would be a much easier path than trying to come up with new strategies to shoot-it-out in the streets.
How will this fare? Thus far the results are mixed. In the first week after the announcement, it seemed to do nothing to the Gallup three day rolling average which showed Obama reopening a measurable if not dominating lead after the Democrats’ big party in Denver. In recent days, however, after the Republican rejoinder in St. Paul and the various speeches given there, the worm seems to be turning. Obama’s previous nine point lead has shrunk to two and those numbers only include one full day after the nation watched Palin’s attack dog speech at the convention.
There are still 59 days to the election with several big debate events on the horizon, but letting the Palin story run loose without any serious counter-punching seems to be a strategy with a huge fork in the road ahead. The media, still rife in a fully justifiable snit-fit over their lack of unfettered, one-on-one access to the new candidate, may well continue to hammer on the negative: Palin’s thin resume, her impending legal perils in Troopergate, her walk-backs on pork barrel spending and government reform. If the electorate responds to that and McCain’s numbers take a turn south, Obama should have little to fear. But voters may also view this as somehow being an unfair attack on the former beauty queen, hockey mom turned P.T.A member, mayor and Governor. If that is the case, they may well continue to focus on the life story narrative which Team McCain has been trying to feed to the public and push Big Mac’s numbers even higher.
If that happens, however, and McCain’s risky choice proves to be prescient, Obama will be forced – for the first time in this general election cycle – to begin fighting from the underdog position and discover a way to make a comeback. This reminds me for some reason of when Ed Morrissey and I were liveblogging the last Super Bowl at Captain’s Quarters. (Ed was blogging, I was commenting.) The Giants, after holding the lead for a long time, had fallen behind near the end of the game. At that point, both Ed and I -nearly simultaneously – said that, “here’s where Mrs. Manning’s younger boy will have to prove if he’s really ready for that ring.” Should the Palin pick drive Big Mac measurably above the 50% mark, that’s when The One will have to prove whether he’s really got what it takes to grab that seat in the Oval Office.
He won’t be without hope, as serious stumbles by any of the candidates during the debates (or a sudden shot of horrible news from Alaska’s legislative inquiry) could still send the numbers spiraling in the other direction. But that’s not the sort of thing you want to be relying on a few weeks before the big game. I still think that the Palin nomination will blow up in McCain’s face, but I’ve been so wrong, so often this season, I can assure you that you have no reason to base your opinions on my predictions.
17 Responses to “Where’s Waldo? errr… Obama?”
Whoa, Jazz.
I know you wanted to bring a little balance, but I don’t think Obama can survive this intense critical analysis.
Jazz,
Check out Obama's remarks in Terre Haute, IN today. He is NOT laying low on Sarah Palin. He nailed her for lying about opposing earmarks. Expect more of this in days to come. Funny enough, Tucker Bounds lied AGAIN about her opposing the Bridge to Nowhere in his response.
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/09…
I think Obama was waiting a bit for the convention to finish before launching a sustained attack. Unlike McCain's shoot-from-the-hip strategy, Obama's measured approach will work better. There was a glaring weakness in the RNC all week: no substance on any major issue of the day. When McCain finally said a few words about the economy he offered old GOP boilerplate and nothing new. Palin offered even less in her speech.
As for the tracking polls, everybody gets a convention bounce. We'll have to wait until middle of the week before we see what the race really looks like now.
Please sign this petition demanding the truth at http://www.alaskatroopergate.com that states:
“We, the undersigned, call on Sarah Palin to fulfill her promise to cooperate with the Alaska Troopergate investigation.
We demand that GOP operatives stop stonewalling the investigation.
We as Americans say ENOUGH IS ENOUGH and demand the information we are entitled to know to make an informed decision before election day!”
Please help get the word out!
As a person in his thirties with two kids, there is no policy that I find more abhorrent than Obama's no income taxes for seniors making less the $50,000 a year.
First off, this is not partisan and anyone who considers themselves Progressive needs to realize that the people in question hold the majority of the wealth in this country.
Let us put this another way, Paul Krugman states that this might be the first generation that has a lower standard of living than the preceding generation.
How does this policy not exacerbate that problem?
We can agree or disagree as to whether Social Security is solvent, but even Krugman states that money will need to come from the General Revenue fund to shore up Social Security.
Who is going to pay those taxes – not seniors apparently?
I am all for helping seniors and this policy would in fact benefit my mother, but she owns her home outright and receives several other benefits because of her age. I love my mother. I was raised by her alone, but even she agrees that we are putting too much of a burden on the next generation.
elrod, I agree with you that Obama is taking a measured approach. It just makes sense to me that because there is so much out there, some of it factual, some of it just rumor, that Obama is waiting to determine which controversy he can use against Palin. He doesn't want to push a controversy only to find out that there isn't much to it.
Jazz, great post, thanks!
“He won’t be without hope, as serious stumbles by any of the candidates during the debates (or a sudden shot of horrible news from Alaska’s legislative inquiry) could still send the numbers spiraling in the other direction.”
I remember in 2004 that there was all the talk about an October surprise. I wonder if the Bushies/McCain will try one this year…
cfpete: there is no policy that I find more abhorrent than Obama's no income taxes for seniors making less the $50,000 a year. First off, this is not partisan and anyone who considers themselves Progressive needs to realize that the people in question hold the majority of the wealth in this country.
Seniors making less than $50,000/yr hold the majority of wealth in this country? What are you, kidding???
Senator Obama is showing his remarkable political insight in keeping clear of “Hurricane Palin” until he sees where it will touch land.
Aside from his responding to attack lines, Obama has only declared he would fire any Democrat on his team who made comments about Palin's family. Smart.
I am not an Obama supporter, but I see that Obama has undeniable advantages over McCain at the moment: he has (1) greater policy depth; (2) more money; and (3) an enthusiasm advantage.
Why risk this clear lead for the uncertain advantage of tearing into his opponent's running mate? If Obama started hammering Palin now, the McCain team could smear him as a sexist and lump him with the nutters who demand Palin's amniotic tests, her neighbor's divorce files, her hunting records etc.
This could be potentially disastrous. Anyone who thinks this could not happen need only look at McCain going down in flames in South Carolina in 2000 with smears of miscegnation, homosexuality etc.
I am sure the McCain team would LOVE Obama hammering Palin at the moment.
But Obama seems to me a cool, rather than a hot, politician. He will bide his time.
Ricorun,
I give you another's opinion:
“Most low- and moderate-income seniors already owe no income tax. Among seniors with incomes below $50,000 who do owe income tax, a significant number have modest incomes because they are retired but possess substantial assets,” said Robert Greenstein, who heads the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a liberal think tank. “Given all the problems and needs the nation faces, targeting relief to this group isn’t a priority.”
Marlowecan makes some good points except for this one:
“Why risk this clear lead for the uncertain advantage of tearing into his opponent's running mate?“
If you follow the gallup links in my post, they have Obama's lead shrunk from 9 points on Wed. to two points today. CBS and USA Today have them dead even. The lead, at least for the moment, has evaporated. That is, in part, what prompted my question.
Rico,
I can assure you that it is okay to support your candidate yet not agree with every single policy that candidate proposes.
I believe America was built upon that assumption – or at least it was.
cfpete, I agree with every word said in this: “Most low- and moderate-income seniors already owe no income tax. Among seniors with incomes below $50,000 who do owe income tax, a significant number have modest incomes because they are retired but possess substantial assets,” said Robert Greenstein, who heads the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a liberal think tank. “Given all the problems and needs the nation faces, targeting relief to this group isn’t a priority.”
The only thing I would add is this: neither will it hurt. In terms of federal tax revenues, the fact is that seniors with incomes below $50,000 represent nary a blip on the radar screen. So yeah, in the grand scheme of things, they really aren't a priority. Not fiscally anyway. It matters to those seniors, though. I admire your mother for her selfless compassion, but consider this question nonetheless: what demographic would you say Obama the whippersnapper is having the hardest time convincing?
By the way, cfpete, if I felt it necessary to support “my” candidate on every single policy promise, I would never vote. I like to think that I consider a multitude of things on multiple levels. But on this particular issue it's pretty clear to me in what part of the stream Obama is fishing. And in general, I am getting the feeling that I really do understand where Obama is coming from. That is providing me some comfort — even though I would be the first to admit that I still have a much harder time trying to extrapolate that into the future. On the other hand, I feel no such comfort in McCain. Ironically, and quite incredibly, he has become to me the more unknown quantity.
Jazz, you make a good point.
Yes, Obama's national polls have shrunk. This may be expected with the post-GOP convention bounce (and the Palin craze).
However, if we look at the electoral college and the battleground states, Obama's advantage remains clear and considerable. McCain faces an uphill battle (which may be why he played the Palin “wild card”).
Senator Obama is the coolest (by this I mean rational, disciplined) presidential candidate Americans have seen in many years. He is almost the anti-Clinton.
I still believe the nature of this race favors him.
I haven't gone to 538 yet this weekend to check on the individual stats for the COPM states. (Colorado, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan, which I feel will decide the election.) I usually do that on Monday. I think we'll get a better feel by the middle of the week as to what the GOP convention and the Palin speech have done to the local picture in those states and tell us where the dice are currently bouncing.
Marlowecan is right about the bounces. I think Gallup uses a rolling three-day average. Once the Republican convention bounce rolls out, things should be be more clear.
I'd guess it won't be until Tuesday of Wednesday of next week that the bounce should level out. Nobody should freak out until then.
There are a number of good poll aggregators. I prefer Pollster.com, which puts actual poll results up front and gives reasonably simple explanations. (FiveThirtyEight.com is a little wonky for my taste, but I like to look it over.)
RealClearPolitics.com also has a good page of averages, with handy links to the battleground states immediately on the left side of the page.
And don't forget TPM Election Central, which shows recent poll results immediately to the right with a handy link to their poll tracker right beneath.
Please keep up the great coverage!!
Jazz said: “I haven't gone to 538 yet this weekend to check on the individual stats for the COPM states...”
FWIW: Pollster.com – “The Polls: The 2008 Presidential Election” has good 'state-by-state' and national poll data comparing most all polling organizations. Mouse over states for basic info or click for graph comparing different polls.