Did John McCain Listen to Bill Kristol—Selectively?

Sometimes I am critical of conservative Bill Kristol and his New York Times columns—like 99.9 percent of the time.

But, when credit is due, I am not loath to give it.

And that is the case today.

I happened to be revisiting his August 4, 2008, New York Times column, where Kristol gave the McCain campaign some advice on “How to Pick a V.P.”

Lo and behold, John McCain apparently paid some attention to Kristol. While Kristol presented “four competing theories,” McCain apparently felt that he was in a cafeteria, picked a little bit from each of these “competing theories,” and came up with, voilà, Sarah Palin.

Let’s go through Kristol’s “competing theories”:

1. “We’re going to defeat Obama straight up.”

“If McCain is ahead of or close to Obama in the polls, there will be a strong temptation to do no harm with the V.P. choice.” Kristol recommends people like Tim Pawlenty, governor of Minnesota, and Rob Portman, the former Ohio congressman and Bush trade representative and budget director.

Since McCain was not ahead or close to Obama in the polls, when it came to crunch time, he obviously went for the “Hail Mary pass.” It remains to be seen whether his desperation pick will “do no harm.”

2. “We need to accentuate Obama’s key vulnerability — inexperience.”

“If McCain’s central theme is going to be that he’s ready and Obama isn’t, he needs a running mate who reinforces that message — someone experienced who’d be seen as ready to govern” Kristol then suggests former rival Mitt Romney, or former Pennsylvania governor Tom Ridge.

Well, McCain certainly accentuated someone’s key vulnerability. The problem is that it was, and is, his V.P.pick’s vulnerability—not Obama’s.

3. “Don’t fight the public desire for change; co-opt it.”

“The public wants change but is nervous about Obama. Why not allow people to vote for experience and the next generation of leadership at the same time?”

After belittling and ridiculing “change,” McCain has certainly followed Kristol’s advice here, and is now trying to “co-opt change.”

In order to co-opt change, Kristol recommends “a young and different V.P.: the 37-year-old governor of Louisiana, Bobby Jindal; 44-year-old Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska; or Eric Cantor, the 45-year-old Virginia congressman,” and adds, “Party pros would have fainting spells about the unseasoned Jindal and Palin in particular…”

How right Kristol was–about the fainting spells. However, McCain, while co-opting change, seems to have forgotten about “experience.”

4. “The public is really sick of politics as usual in Washington.”

“This opens up several unconventional V.P. possibilities. They include some who would reinforce the notion of a war presidency above politics, like Senator Joe Lieberman and Defense Secretary Robert Gates. Or perhaps someone with economic or domestic policy expertise — like New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, old McCain friend and FedEx C.E.O. Fred Smith or new McCain insider and former EBay C.E.O. Meg Whitman.”

But Kristol adds: “And he could be especially intrigued by Sarah Palin and Meg Whitman. I run into plenty of moderate and conservative women who don’t consider themselves feminists but would be pleased to see a qualified woman on the ticket.”

Finally, Kristol concludes, “Especially if Obama picks a man, rejecting hope and change in favor of the same old patriarchy — won’t McCain be tempted to say: cherchez la femme? ”

Yes, McCain listened—albeit selectively—to Kristol and went in a desperate search of a woman. But, the question begs: Did he find the right “femme?”