On Taking Bets On How Long Palin Will Last On GOP Ticket As McCain Vice President Pick

A lively progressive blog is taking bets on how long GOP Vice Presidential candidate to be Gov. Sarah Palin lasts on the GOP ticket. Details HERE.

UPDATE: More predictions are being taken here.

My view? The economy is bad so this isn’t the time to literally throw money away. In fact, for all of the consternation among Democrats and some independent voters about her lack of experience, Palin makes sense for John McCain if you look at some of his other broader goals, as Dick Polman points out.

In his most recent post he writes about Tropical Storm Sarah and how among other things, she was not honest about her role in the “bridge to nowhere,” how she has lawyered up in her home state due to abuse of power allegations and “the probe will be ongoing through the autumn campaign, providing the McCain campaign with all kinds of unwanted distractions. Conveniently, the lawyer’s stalling tactics will probably result in a postponement of the probe’s findings until after the election. That timing issue will also be part of the ongoing coverage.”

Earlier, in another post, he pointed out some ways in which Palin could help McCain and a key McCain goal: to differentiate himself from Bush-Rove and recapture his 2000 “maverick” aura. If you put the breaking controversies and scandals aside, a lot of this appointment makes more sense if you consider these factors:

By picking a young female governor and mother of five as his running mate, he is signaling his intention to shake things up and scrap the traditional GOP paradigm. Indeed, that is his prime task this week at his national convention, as he seeks to position his candidacy for the autumn presidential race. He rightly decided that he needed to effectuate a marketing overhaul, if only because the Bush-Cheney team has damaged the party “brand” so badly.

The choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin provides a window into McCain’s election strategy. Mindful that fewer votes describe themselves as Republicans than at any other time in recent years – Gallup reports that the self-identified Democrats now hold a 14-point advantage, whereas the parties were at parity only four years ago – McCain knows he’s toast unless he can swing the independents. And he can’t do that unless he reclaims his former image as a “maverick” reformer.

As others have noted, McCain reportedly enjoys playing craps and this is a high stakes roll of the dice:

Palin is designed to be Exhibit A….She reinforces McCain’s longstanding message about wasteful government spending. And by dint of her gender, she helps McCain make the case that Democrats this year do not have the monopoly on “change,” that the Republicans are arguably just as keen to practice diversity in the 21st century.

But McCain is also well aware that he can’t win without also galvanizing the conservative base. He knows that any moves to the center must be counterbalanced by further fealty to the Republican right. He may be the party nominee, but he is stil viewed with suspicion by many of the conservatives who still dominate the party.

The fact is, McCain prevailed in the primaries only because conservatives never coalesced around an opponent. McCain nailed down the nomination in three contests (New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida) without ever winning a majority or plurality of self-described conservatives. He was basically saved by moderates, independents and, in Florida, Latinos.

This means that the conservatives who still control the GOP apparatus are not beholden to the GOP nominee. This sets up an interesting tension. While McCain this week will undoubtedly seek to signal a new era for the party, the conservatives are busy writing an old-style party platform that contradicts McCain’s stated concerns about global warming, and undercuts his belief in the need for path-to-citizenship immigration reform.

Consider: McCain may not get all the independent votes he wants, but in one fell swoop he has re-energized the GOP base. This is the appointment they dreamed of and — as is customary with partisans of both parties — they are now linked-up to play defense lawyer for any attacks that come her way. Polman sees her as having an important intra-party role:

Hence Palin’s other important role, as an ambassador to the base. As governor she has signed tax cuts and shaped up the state budget (thereby reassuring the economic conservatives); she is a lifelong NRA member and an abortion opponent who decided to give birth to her fifth child after she received a diagnosis of Down Syndrome (thereby reassuring the social conservatives).

The Palin choice also apparently reflects McCain’s belief that the GOP will benefit from a fresh face, that humanizing the party can help repair the wreckage of the past eight years. She’ll be a great story at the convention – former basketball player, former beauty queen – if only because the press is drawn to novelty, and she can work the women voters in swing states by sharing a personal saga – the ultimate working mom – that no previous Republican running mate could ever muster. McCain wanted to create some buzz, and he has succeeded.

He then goes into the negatives…which are still swirling around as this post is being written. There’s a downside for McCain and an upside. Right now there are signs more than ever that Republicans are rallying to defend Palin against the downsides — even though she is the kind of nominee whose resume would cause Rush, Sean, Bill and countless Republican broadcast, old media and new media analysts to rage against if she had been a Democrat appointed by Obama for his Veepship. Consistency can interfere with winning.

UPDATE: My DD’s Jerome Armstrong also sees Palin’s pluses for McCain and warns Democrats to avoid wishful thinking:

There were some posters that questioned why I called Palin a “gamechanger” candidate. First off, as I said, she has to pass the ‘media test’ or otherwise, she’ll have changed the game in a negative manner for the GE. But as for how she’s a potential positive gamechanger for McCain, we only need to review the numbers on whats the matter with Republicans this year.

McCain’s “very favorable” ratings have been stuck all year. They reflect a Republican base that is in the dumps. On the otherhand, Palin is of and from the Republican base, and if she passes the media gauntlet, she’ll succeed in changing this race for McCain….

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She can shore up the GOP’s cracking coalition and Democrat’s criticism of her is only lowering expectations:

My guess is that all the hype and research around Palin this week is all serving the purpose of making her stage on Wednesday even bigger. And from the looks of it on Saturday, she’ll knock it out of the park for Republicans. Not for you and I, that’s not what the aim here it– its Republican voters of the past 8 years that are now saying they are Independent, but really lean Republican when they vote. In the end, the Palin pick is a bet that Barack Obama has a higher threshold to cross for their vote than does what Sarah Palin adds to John McCain.

Then there’s the talk about Palin being the Eagleton of Republicans. This is wishful thinking, and denial of whats going on– all wrapped up into one big long Labor Day political junkie echo chamber that morphed into exactly the sort of hubris which Joe Trippi warns.