An Internet hub for moderates, centrists, and independents, with domestic and international news, analysis, original reporting, and popular features from the left, center, and right

“The worst thing to happen to journalism in 20 years.”

That’s how Obama’s communications director, Dan Pfieffer, described the Gallup Daily tracking poll when discussing the campaign’s polling strategy. I think he’s being a little hyperbolic—but only because several bad things have happened to journalism and it isn’t fair to give the Gallup Daily all the credit.

He’s right to point out that there’s too much focus (from pundits and journalists in particular) on snapshot polls without taking into account statistical noise and the fact that the election isn’t going to be decided by a national popular vote. Occasionally citing the Gallup Daily is fine, as long as you include caveats about its accuracy and are not trying to use the results to completely explain the effectiveness of various campaign strategies.

Pfieffer and David Plouffe offered a little behind-the-scenes glimpse of how the Obama campaign handles polling. Marc Ambinder has the details:

“All we care about is these 18 states,” he said. He repeated, with emphasis, that the campaign does not care about national polling. Instead, the campaign’s own identification, registration and canvassing efforts provide the data he uses to determine where to invest money and resources.

Other nuggets from Plouffe:

** If McCain doesn’t win Colorado, “he has a 5% chance to win the election.”

** He believes that they have “a slight edge” in Virginia.

** He said Obama is underperforming only among working class whites over 70 and pointed to a poll showing that Obama is over performing John Kerry with working class white voters under 50.

** Said that the campaign’s target in Georgia is about 47% of the vote, owing to Ex-Rep. Bob Barr’s ability to siphon votes away from John McCain.

** Said Hillary Clinton’s speech “could not have gone better.”

** Said the campaign “is really pleased” with where they are in Montana.

One of the more significant differences between the Obama and Clinton campaigns was their understanding of the delegate allocation process and the strategies they developed as a result. Plouffe’s team has already demonstrated a knack for numbers-crunching during the primaries, and I’ll remain convinced that they know what they’re doing (despite a slight drop in national polls) until they prove me wrong.

  • Silhouette
    Ignore the polls!

    Obama still has a chance!

    la la la la la la la la "I can't HEAR you"...la la la la la la...

    lol...

    The only poll I'm waiting to see is the one just after the Sinclair story "an American...who bravely asked that the truth be told" is released.

    Ouchies!
  • DLS
    Well, Obama's newness and concern by many about having their taxes raised substantially (which isn't helpful to strained budgets) may lead to a large quiet contingent (if not a quiet majority, which I don't believe is the case) to consider McCain, holding their noses if they must.

    As for the lefties on lefty talk radio, they simply are outraged that the polls aren't so heavily in Obama's favor. All kinds of conspiracies are there (racism, corporate right-wing behavior by the media to try to discredit Obama's campaign) but the most entertaining part of the reaction has been the people's own views. Example:

    "We should be able to run Charles Manson against McCain and the Republicans and do better than 90 per cent in any real polls! And he killed fewer people than Bush, too!"
  • DLS
    Here. Dems need to work harder and get a boost out of this convention. Let's see how it looks next week (after the Dems convention has ended for a few days) and then the following week (to see if the GOP convention manages to produce any gains at all).



    http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08...

    http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08...
  • jwest
    In the ’04 elections, the average of all the final polls overestimated Kerry’s performance in 43 states, while only overestimating Bush’s totals in 3 states.

    Polls have always overestimated democrat outcomes. This has led to charges that pollsters are weighting their results improperly to give people the impression of massive democrat support. Using the generic polls, Obama should be ahead by 15 points by now, but he continues to fall behind McCain.

    Of course, Obama’s campaign will say the polls are useless at this point, but a definite trend is developing.
  • Kathryn
    Ignore the actual primary election!

    Hillary still has a chance!

    la la la la la la la la la "I can't HEAR you"... la la la la la la la.

    Larry Sinclair is awesome!
  • Whenever Silhouette goes off about Larry Sinclair, all you need say is "Vincent Foster."

    One crazy conspiracy theory deserves another.
  • jwest
    I’m sure the last thing Foster heard was Hillary saying:

    “Just sit down over there, Vince, I’ll be right with you”.
  • Kathryn
    Ah jwest, it probably was the last thing Foster heard, but you forgot to mention it was right after he "serviced" Bill.
blog comments powered by Disqus
© 2005-2009 The Moderate Voice | Site design by Elegant Themes | Site customization, hosting, and security by Enxit Group, LLC