Biden “does no harm” but does he help?
Gallup has immediately gotten to work polling the populace on Barack Obama’s selection of Joe Biden as his running mate. (And let’s face it… what else do they have to occupy their time in August until the conventions begin?) Pollsters have been taking this body temperature check immediately following the VP announcements for more than twenty years, so we have some decent history to draw on for comparison.
So, clearly, Biden has a positive impact if only a small one. It’s a net gain of 7% for Obama. (Plus 14 and minus 7.) How does that stack up with other picks over the last two decades? Well, not as impressively as you might think. Joe Lieberman boosted Al Gore by a net of 12%. John Edwards and Jack Kemp gave a bump of 17% and 18% respectively to John Kerry and Bob Dole. Al Gore gave a whopping 25% boost to Bill Clinton in ’92. But Biden did score higher than two other veep picks during that period… Dick Cheney and Dan Quayle.
Part of these lukewarm numbers could be because of the lack-of-visibility Biden has had on the national stage. (More than half of respondents said they had either “never heard of him” or “had no opinion.”
On the key question of whether or not he was qualified to take command, Biden at least did as well as several other picks. 57% said he was qualified, tied with Edwards and Cheney, so coming in well above half is certainly a good thing. Still, it was a lower percentage than any of the other veep choices during the period of study except for Lieberman (52%) and Quayle. (32%)
So if the first rule in running mate selection is to “do no harm” then it seems that Biden easily clears that bar. If he’s going to turn into a large positive boost, however, clearly a lot of work remains to be done.
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9 Responses to “Biden “does no harm” but does he help?”
I think the more people see and hear Biden over the next couple months, the more they will like him. He comes across as more genuine and down to earth than most politicians, which will gradually translate into higher numbers for the “more likely” category. McCain has his work cut out for him if he's going to make an equally smart and dynamic pick for his VP.
I agree with JSpencer on all those points. And if McCain picks Romney, Michelle Obama should start picking out new drapes for the West Wing. McCain does have a few tasty options out there, though, and the right one could definitely help offset whatever equal positive effect Biden winds up providing and keep him in the hunt at least.
While Patrick has just today finished his analysis of the state by state comparisons, I just have a feeling that this isn't going to be a blowout unless something happens to change things drastically. Could be another real nailbiter right down the closing of the polls in Hawaii.
I think what the polls don't show is the positive impact Biden will have on the campaign. He can identify with the working person better than anyone Obama could have chosen and more important he's a bull dog – something the campaign needed.
biden has very little to recommend him. he''s best-known for claiming that neil kinnock's life events were his (and even neil kinnock made them up as it turned out) and the subsequent fall-out over his lies about his academic history, both in 1987. since then all he's done of note is to shill for the credit card lobby, push through harsh anti-drug laws on the basis of fraudulent and retracted “studies” and adopt more and more elements of mccain's bellicose foreign policy.
this is supposed to be “change”?
http://londonamerican01.blogspot.com/2008/08/st…
I like the Biden choice.
He'll be an asset on the campaign trail, as Ron Beasley points out, he can play the attack dog while Obama maintains his above-the-fray, vision-guyness.
And who better than a Senate vet to whip Congress into passing Obama's initiatives?
Picking Biden tells me that O doesn't just want to win, he wants to govern.
“Picking Biden tells me that O doesn't just want to win, he wants to govern.”
Well said. This choice shows Obama is looking beyond mere politics.
He helps. He addresses the concerns Americans have about Obama's foreign policy.
I think he helps more by being an Unpretentious Straight Talkin' White Guy.
The public already agrees with Obama on foreign policy, especially with regard to Iraq.
He'll help with the Old Party Democrats and with the centrist wing. I still think Obama should have at least offered the VP slot to Clinton, but Biden would have been my next choice.