Sabato’s Crystal Ball: HOW THE CONVENTION BALL BOUNCES
Forget the Olympics. Political junkies are in the convention pre-season. As we approach the Democratic National Convention on August 25 to 28 and the Republican National Convention on September 1 to 4, analysts just want to know one thing: How big are the bounces?
The “bounce”, of course, refers to the jump in the polls that a party experiences as a result of its week of media propaganda, broadcast free on all major news networks and in every news publication. Don’t get us wrong. We favor giving each party its chance to tell a story about its nominee and its principles; this is invaluable civic education for voters who don’t pay close attention normally.
Yet we shouldn’t see the conventions as more than they are. Ever since the 1972 GOP Convention that re-nominated President Richard Nixon, when the conclave literally followed a minute-by-minute script that detailed how long delegates should applaud in each instance, the parties have striven to follow the pure public relations model. Nary a discouraging word is spoken, every picture for the cameras is perfect, and “boring” becomes a religion.
Thus, at the end of the week, with the nominee having delivered a much practiced and poll-tested acceptance address and been accompanied by balloons, confetti, and family aplenty on stage, the candidate ought reasonably to be at his polling peak. The extra points added by the convention comprise the bounce, and size matters. The parties compare their bounces, and inevitably someone has a case of bounce envy.
