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Saddlegate?
I mostly agree with Joe Gandelman’s take on the Saddleback Forum. Both candidates did well, though McCain beat the lower expectations set for him. I’d only add that the event took place on hardcore GOP home turf, so McCain’s policy answers are naturally going to please more of the crowd than Obama’s. Either way, McCain came out of it looking safe on the issues for the Religious Right and Obama showed the younger and less doctrinaire evangelicals that he is a true and thoughtful Christian.
But today two disturbing stories have emerged today that could completely overturn this conventional wisdom. The first is mostly just conjecture at this point, and I have reservations about its validity. But if demonstrated true, it could be fatal to John McCain’s candidacy. The second is less serious but is almost certainly true and casts serious doubts about the conventional wisdom analysis of the Saddleback Forum.
So, the first issue is a charge amplified by Andrew Sullivan that John McCain may have cribbed the poignant “cross in the sand” story from Alexander Solzhenitsyn. Indeed, one of the most touching moments of the forum last night was John McCain’s shared Christian fellowship with his North Vietnamese prison guard:
It was Christmas day, we were allowed to stand outside of our cell for a few minutes, and those days we were not allowed to see or communicate with each other although we certainly did. And I was stadning outside for my few minutes, outside my cell. He came walking up. He stood there for a minute and with his handle [sandal?] on the dirt in the courtyard he drew a cross and he stood there and a minute later, he rubbed it out and walked away. For a minute there, there as just two Christians worshiping together. I’ll never forget that moment…
But, as Sullivan points out, Alexander Solzhenitsyn gave an “eerily similar” account of his own imprisonment in the Soviet gulags in a 1997 interview with Orthodox Priest Father Luke Veronis. Here is the piece from Veronis:
Alexander Solzhenitsyn, the Russian author who spent many years in the gulag of Siberia, bears witness to the power of the cross. After long suffering in the work camp of Siberia, he fell into despair. Like other prisoners, he had worked in the fields day after day, in rain and sun, during summer and winter. His days were filled with backbreaking labor and slow starvation. On a particular day, the hopelessness of his situation became too much. He saw no reason to continue living, to continue fighting the system. He thought that the rest of his life was meaningless since he would most likely die in this Siberian prison. His life made no difference in the world. So he gave up.
Laying his shovel on the ground, he slowly walked to a crude work-site bench and sat down. He knew that at any moment a guard would order him to stand up, and when he failed to respond, the guard would beat him to death, probably with his own shovel. He had seen it happen to many other prisoners.
As he waited, head down, he felt a presence. Slowly, he lifted his eyes and saw a skinny, old prisoner squat down next to him. The man said nothing. Instead, he drew a stick through the ground at Solzhenitsyn’s feet, tracing the sign of the Cross. The man then got back up and returned to his work.
As Solzhenitsyn stared at the sign of the Cross, his entire perspective changed. He knew that he was only one man against the all-powerful Soviet empire. Yet in that moment, he knew that there was something greater than the evil that he saw in the prison, something greater than the Soviet Union. He knew that the hope of all mankind was represented in that simple Cross. And through the power of the Cross, anything was possible.
It’s worth noting that John McCain never mentioned this “cross in the dirt” story until 1999 when he prepared his 2000 Presidential campaign. In a 12,000 word account offered in 1973 of his prisoner of war experience, he never mentioned the cross in the dirt story, even though he did discuss religion a bit. It’s also worth noting that John McCain is a huge admirer of Alexander Solzhenitsyn, as is his longtime associate and ghost writer Mark Salter.
Does this mean John McCain essentially pulled a Hillary-at-Tuzla and fabricated a heartwarming story to appeal to evangelicals at Saddleback? Several Kos diaries have pushed the story. But others in Kosworld think the story is unprovable at best and dangerous at worst. The spirited debate on whether this is a form of swift-boating is interesting in its own right as a window into Democratic navel-gazing.
As for me, I’m skeptical that John McCain completely cribbed this story from Alexander Solzhenitsyn. The risks are too high for McCain to do that. And unlike the Tuzla moment, there is no videotape. But that doesn’t mean it’s impossible either. We’ll have to see how it pans out.
On the other hand, there may be a better explanation for McCain’s top shelf performance last night and it has little to do with heartfelt conviction or command of policy. Rick Warren insisted throughout the night that John McCain was in a “cone of silence” and was unable to hear any of the questions posed to Barack Obama in the first portion of the forum. After all, if McCain could hear the questions ahead of time, he could prepare his answers for maximum effect. An already home-field advantage for McCain would become a rigged event.
Lo and behold, it turns out today that John McCain was not in fact in a “cone of silence” at all. Rick Warren himself admitted that today, claiming that McCain was still in traffic and unable to get to the forum in time. Of course, one can listen to the Obama portion of the forum on the car radio so, if true, McCain and Warren would have pulled one over the American people (though Warren insists to Rick Sanchez that he thought McCain really was in the “cone” during the Obama interview.) Either way, it appears that John McCain got a heads up on the questions ahead of time and was able to prepare accordingly.
Nate Silver of 538 fame adds his two cents and reiterates that Warren gave the impression that McCain was not in the building during Obama’s performance and that McCain could not have access to the questions. It’s very possible that Warren genuinely believed that McCain was in the building. But the fact that he was not, in fact, in any sort of “cone of silence,” suggests that the event on television was not what it seemed.
I hope that both of these questions are explored more in the next few days. I’m skeptical at this point about McCain having stolen the “cross in the dirt” story but I don’t put it out of the realm of possibility. As for the cone of silence issue, however, it seems quite clear that McCain and Obama did not play by the same rules. And that may explain McCain’s apparent command of the forum.
[Update}
The New York Times now has a story on this. McCain’s campaign insists that he did not watch or listen to or have access through his aides to the questions ahead of time. If you believe that, well, then I’ve just been elected to my 10th term as President of the Republic of Tajikistan. Perhaps the biggest tell is McCain spokeswoman Nicole Wallace playing the POW card so flippantly. She says, “The insinuation from the Obama campaign that John McCain, a former prisoner of war, cheated is outrageous.” So, because John McCain is a former prisoner of war it’s impossible that he heard the questions ahead of time? Isn’t she cheapening his POW service by playing this card?
Another oddity here. As Nate Silver points out in his commentary, Rick Warren completely contradicted himself on whether or not he knew McCain was in the building. Twice. First, he says they had a coin toss before the forum started to see who would go first. But if McCain was not there, how could they conduct the coin toss? And if Warren knew McCain wasn’t there to do the coin toss, why did he continue to state that McCain was in the building?
The second contradiction was his remarks to CNN’s Rick Sanchez where he said that he did not know that McCain was out of the building…but then felt compelled to ask Obama an extra question because McCain had not yet arrived at the building! Is he for real?
This may hurt Rick Warren more than it does McCain.
Here is the video.
18 Responses to “Saddlegate?”
One thing that occurred to me when I heard the cross in the dirt story is to wonder just how many Christians there are in Vietnam. The best information I could find makes it out to be less than 10% even now. Back in the '60s? And willing to take the slightest chance of being recognized as one when the Communist regime was at its height? It just didn't ring true with me.
Re: The “cone of silence” charade. Shades of the “square box” (transceiver?) outline on Bush's back, through his suit jacket, during one of his presidential debates…
Elrod, I seem to remember hearing several hours – maybe even up to a day – before the forum that Obama was going first. Ah, here's a source: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/…
Look at the bottom section, entitled “Campaign weekend.” The coin toss was done hours, and maybe even some time, before the event. Obama and McCain are busy guys, so I doubt they were hanging around Warren's church for the entire day.
Jim,
There were certainly some Christians in North Vietnam. But most Christians gravitated to the South. In fact, if you read memoirs like Le Ly Hayslip's “When Heaven and Earth Changed Places,” you see that the Viet Cong had a strong Buddhist tilt, and that Catholics tended to support Ngo Dinh Diem's regime in the South.
That a North Vietnamese guard was secretly Christian is unlikely but not impossible.
D. E.,
I never really believed the square box story. But the cone of silence BS has already been revealed by Warren himself.
Dymero,
You're right. I figured the coin toss was just theatrics.
But the other contradiction makes no sense at all. Warren says he thought McCain was in the building, but then had to ask another question to Obama because McCain hadn't arrived yet? And then he says that he asked McCain straight up if he saw the questions in his motorcade. When? In the actual interview with McCain Warren makes it clear that he believed McCain to be in the secluded room. The first joke referenced that point and McCain went along with it. Did Warren learn that McCain was not, in fact, in the secluded room after the show….is that when he asked McCain if he cheated? It's possible, but it's a bit unclear at this point.
Elrod, it is unclear. The way I read his answer is that it was after. However, was McCain supposed to be lead to the CoS immediately upon his arrival to Saddleback, with no chance to greet Warren and/or Obama first? This we don't know, though the reports I've read seem to suggest this.
Unless some proof arises that McCain had access, however, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. He arrived half an hour late, and that seems insufficient time to prepare your answers, even if he did have access.
When I first heard the cross story my initial reaction was, “How convenient that McCain could tell a story like this that is not verifiable.” I was watching CNN so afterwards the CNN anchor came on and said that he had heard that story may times before, but this was the first time that it was the guard….
So the questions I had when I first heard McCain were: how many Christians were guards in North Vietnam? Did those guards wear sandals (I heard McCain say the guard used his sandal, I did not hear him say handle) to draw the cross. I thought that military people wore boots, though I can understand how sandals would be worn in that part of the world and at that time- though I don't really know.
Another story that McCain told which struck me as odd (and I didn't follow anyway) was how he was given the chance to leave his captivity early, but he decided to stay.
Dymero,
There is no question that John McCain had access to the questions while in his limousine. He had satellite TV, radio, blackberry, you name it. The only question is if he took advantage of that access.
At the risk of going all meta . . . I am fascinated by this meme. McCain has always been a strong debater, and he approached the answers differently from Obama. Is the Left so wedded to the meme of McCain as a senile drooling Grampa Simpson shouting angrily at clouds that they can't admit for a moment his strength in this regard?
In looking at coverage of this story, I am interested in the MSM links (Andrea Mitchell et al) going back to the Obama camp . . . together with the Obama camp protesting they are not pursuing this story.
The WaPo recently got burned by taking Obama camp op research on McCain and donations and spinning it into a front page story without checking . . . then issuing a wholesale correction.
The meme on this one seems to be that whenever the general consensus is Obama performed less well than an opponent . . . then the refs are crooked (primary debate with Geroge Step.), McCain had a half-hour advantage (here) . . . something other than Obama must be at fault.
Good MSM pushback from the Obama team, employing Mitchell et al to spread the word. (Mitchell in the early days after the whole Berlin hospital deal floated the Obama meme that there was a conspiracy by the McCain camp and the Pentagon to sabotage Obama's visit . . . something the Obama camp KNEW was false . . . but they wanted an early pushback out there).
StockboySF said: “Another story that McCain told which struck me as odd (and I didn't follow anyway) was how he was given the chance to leave his captivity early, but he decided to stay.”
That's a well-known element of McCain's POW narrative. Given McCain's father etc., the North Vietnamese offered to release him ahead of the other prisoners. This would have the propaganda value of showing the class-ridden, elitest Americans yada yada. It would also damage POW morale. McCain refused, and actually remained a POW far longer than he would have had to otherwise.
As for the cross story? McCain's reliance on Christian faith has been an element of his POW narrative since the beginning back in the 70s . . . so the emphasis on Christianity in his narrative isn't a recent introduction to please the Christian Right.
I tend to be sceptical, but will give it a pass as it seems no biggie. Certainly the Kossacks piling on ain't gonna hurt McCain with the Christian Right.
McCain's plagiarism exposed by Free Republic…2005!!! LOL
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/8/18/769/180…
Don't you just love it, when they eat their own????
John McCain is now loading the StraightJacket Express – clearly his team (which he is supposedly in charge of) has chosen to say anything to get elected, but that's ok – he was a POW! so he cannot be capable of lying or stretching the truth.
Doesn't that concern many of you McCain supporters and undecideds? If elected, what kind of leader will he be? The stench of the Bush (and Rove) style is clinging to McCain and likely to form his governing style.
Marlowecan: “Is the Left so wedded to the meme of McCain as a senile drooling Grampa Simpson shouting angrily at clouds that they can't admit for a moment his strength in this regard?”
Thanks for the imagery, a little over the top, but entertaining. My greater concern is that the R's have already proven they are willing to get behind any candidate they nominate, regardless of how much mental drooling he might be susceptible to. Is loyalty among these folks truly so strong they are willing to throw aside common sense and honesty in order to maintain it? The GWB experience has given us the sad answer.
JSpencer said: “Thanks for the imagery, a little over the top, but entertaining.”
Alas, JS, I fear the Left's meme has become a brain worm, for I can no longer look at McCain without thinking of Granpa Simpson shouting at clouds. (Damn that compelling TV show . . . here's an image that will overwrite YOUR mental image of McCain too I suspect:
http://images.google.ca/images?um=1&hl=en&q=gra…)
“Is loyalty among these folks truly so strong they are willing to throw aside common sense and honesty in order to maintain it?”
Well . . . yes! Hello? This is the GOP we are talking about.
However, they hardly have a monopoly on political zombism. Recall this classic:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4a6YdNmK77k
Marlow,
Do you also reject the Obama celebrity meme?
ChrisWWW said: “Do you also reject the Obama celebrity meme?”
I embrace the Obama celebrity meme. Loved that ad. Just as my addled brain seems to have embraced the Democrat's McCain-crazy-old-man meme. Memes are my friends.
I look forward to Celeb Obama's guest appearance on the Simpsons this fall (maybe like the Clinton-Dole episode . . . or perhaps the Clinton-Carter-Bush Sr. “Three Stooges” episode nyuk-nyuk-nyuk).
But having McCain and Granpa Simpson in the same frame would be double vision.
McCain is not above borrowing from other sources as evidenced by his theft of Jackson Browne and John Mellencamp songs, and stealing his foreign policy speeches right off the pages of Wikipedia.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008…
http://www.alternet.org/blogs/peek/94652/did_mc…
edia/
Regarding honor among POW, McCain lost his many years ago when he worked to shut down all further investigation of remaining MIA/POW in order to open up trade with Vietnam. His father-in-law immediately opened up a beer industry there.
http://www.aiipowmia.com/testimony/
Marlowecan, thanks for the additional info with regards to the Vietnamese offering to release McCain early.
You are most welcome, Stockboy.
Yah, that part of the story checks out.
Personally, I am inclined to be sceptical about the cross story.
McCain's cross story just seems too . . . your choice of words is very good here, I think . . . “convenient”. It sounds too good to be true, yet unverifiable.
I often defend McCain, but I wonder how many other folks of similar persuasion thought that story a little “off”.
I do think one has to be honest about such things.