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Obama Retakes 3 Point Lead In Gallup Daily Tracking Poll

Posted by JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief in Politics.
Aug 4th, 2008 | Comments

The see-saw continues: Democratic Party presumptive Presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama has retaken a slim three percentage point lead over the GOP’s expected Presidential candidate Sen. John McCain in the latest Gallup Daily Tracking Poll:

Registered voters show a slight preference for Barack Obama (46%) over John McCain (43%) if the presidential election were held today, according to the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking results.

The three percentage point advantage for Obama matches the average since early June, when Obama clinched the number of delegates needed to head to the Democratic convention as the presumptive presidential nominee. Since then, Obama has never trailed McCain among registered voters, though McCain has tied Obama five times during this span, including Gallup Poll Daily tracking reports for last Friday and Saturday.

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See our earlier post which notes that Obama started to sag in several key polls last week after McCain’s campaign went negative and put Obama on the defensive for a week. Obama’s numbers have now slightly edged up as the furor(s) died down. So the lesson for the McCain camp will likely be: keep cloning what worked. Are the Democrats ready to not just respond but try and control the campaign media narrative?

Meanwhile, the Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Obama a statistically-neglible 2.7 percent ahead. And the Pollster.com graph of polls shows McCain on the rise.

  • Neocon
    Even More interesting.

    McCain 47 percent
    Obama 46 percent.

    According to Rassmusen who contacted 3000 vs. your poll which only contacted 2650.

    The race is a dead heat at least nationally. The real key is now going to be those pesky states. I wonder how many Obama fans are wishing that it was the popular vote that counted now as they have been pushing since 2000 thus depriving Obama of a sure win as he leads in states with more electoral votes.
  • Joe,
    It's August.

    *Edited at Neocon's request*
  • Neocon
    Tell Joe that..........hes the one that posted polls.
  • DLS
    "The race is a dead heat at least nationally"

    Shhhhhhhhhhhhhh. If that is true, the media will report it as "McCain Losing Badly"
  • elrod
    Poll fluctuations in the trackers are largely meaningless. Since late June, Obama has led the Gallup tracker by around 3 the whole time. That's where he is today. Some days he leads by more (like after the Berlin trip). Some days it's tied. But the average is Obama by 3.

    Rasmussen has had Obama leading by an average of about 2 since late June. Sometimes he leads by as much as 6 and now we see one where he trails by one.

    Let me repeat this: THIS IS STATISTICAL NOISE

    The only real change so far was this: Obama once trailed McCain by an average of 6 points in April and May. Then, after Hillary Clinton backed out, he led McCain by an average of 5. Then, in late June, his lead drifted back to 2 or 3.

    The reason for the pullback is that voters are not paying attention as closely now as they were in the height of the primary. Believe it or not, many people are not political junkies.

    The real campaign begins with the convention in a few weeks. Polls now are pretty much useless.
  • DLS
    "The real campaign begins with the convention in a few weeks."

    If not after the debates (the "home stretch"). Prior to the debates, everyone expected Gore to win; the question some had was merely by how much (the rest didn't care -- they knew what to expect). When Gore actually lost the debates to Bush (!!!) it shocked the public and made the true swing voters reconsider Bush, for he appeared finally to have a chance to prevail.

    Not that it's necessarily going to be that close this year. I believe it will not be, though if Obama does more lib-Dem stuff, many will switch to McCain, quietly (the swing voter part of the Silent Majority). Can't the Obama team wait until after November?
  • DLS
  • Neocon
    Its interesting that GOP house members and Senate Members are holding improptu sessions trying to get the House and Senate back into session to get this energy mess settled.

    Pelosi, Reid and Company are KILLING OBAMA. Its not his fault. Hes showing a willingness to compromise.............the Democratic party is not. I see the next poll showing McCain surging ahead of Obama because he is tied like an Anchor to the Democratic party.
  • elrod
    Neocon,
    I don't think that'll make much of a difference. Congress comes back in session in early September. The GOP can grandstand now all they want but nobody is paying attention.
  • Mike_P
    The only people answering phone calls from pollsters in early August are political junkies - like us. elrod is correct - statistical noise, just like every little point when Obama drops a couple. The "race" begins in Sept., but really it's only in October or so that trends begin to firm up and become clearer.
  • Neocon
    You think no ones paying attention? You must be able to afford gasoline. There are many who cannot. We will see. Nothing during election season goes unnoticed. The fact that the GOP Republicans can be seen standing in the darkened chambers of Congress calling for congress to come back and solve this might be grandstanding but its a poignant contrast to "Mr. Goodwrench." Who says inflate your tires.

    While he jets off to another vote getting session telling us that building wind towers in Colorado will help you, just be patient and in 15 or 20 years you'll be all fixed up.
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