John Avlon: McCain’s Negative Ads Could Lose Independent Voters

John Avalon, who is perhaps the most prominent independent political book writer, columnist and speaker in the U.S. today, has told CNN that Republican party presumptive nominee Sen. John McCain’s negative ads against rival Democratic Sen. Barack Obama could cost him the support of independent voters.

Independent voters need to read this story in full, but here’s a meaty excerpt with a few comments from yours truly (who was described in a recent book on California Arnold Schwarzenegger as a quintessential California independent voter):

Q: How does the negative campaigning play with independent voters?

Avlon: Independent voters are very sensitive to when politics takes a negative turn. And you know it’s August, and the heat’s turning up on the campaign trail, and so is the rhetoric.

But candidates need to be very careful, because hypocrisy is the unforgivable sin in politics. Both John McCain and Barack Obama have campaigned as being a break from the politics of personal destruction we’ve seen in the past. So, whenever the campaign takes a negative turn, independent voters notice, and they’ll punish the candidate that takes it too far.

Negative campaigning is often a see-saw and partisans will try to play word games in defining whether their side is doing it or not. But it is clear that McCain — who has yet another NEW ad out that paints Obama as messianic (subtext: he’s a danger) — looks as if he has now signed over his campaign and political soul lock, stock and barrel to the same Bush operatives who ran one of the most infamous negative campaigns against him in the 2000 South Carolina primary. Right now McCain is the key practitioner of the kind of politics that many independent voters have decried for so long.

But expect more of the same because the fact is: it seems to be working…and the latest Gallup Tracking poll has the race tied. And this means the Obama campaign will likely have to start responding on some way. The same way? Or with hard-hitting ads dealing with McCain’s positions on issues? MORE:

Q: So negative campaigning doesn’t work for independent voters?

Avlon: No. … The reason [independent voters] are independent is they’re reacting against the extremes on both sides. They want to see an end to this split-screen politics. They want to see people who put patriotism ahead of partisanship and the national interests ahead of special interests. That’s what the independent voters want.

And both candidates so far have been pretty attuned to that. But this is going to be the real test.

As noted here yesterday, I supported McCain in 2000 and was pleased he won the GOP primary race. But I am now concluding like Joe Klein that McCain is not the McCain I believed him to be. His credibility is nearly gone after a) the ads b) the unconvincing spin defending them c) the clear signal that more political “schmutz” is yet to come.

Q: According to a study of political commercials by the University of Wisconsin, a third of McCain’s television ads have actually been negative attacks on Barack Obama. The study also found that 90 percent of Barack Obama’s television ads don’t even mention McCain. Is this a risky strategy for John McCain?

Avlon: Isn’t that interesting? Yes. You know, John McCain is walking a fine line here because a lot of his credibility with independents comes from the fact that he’s always stayed above partisan gutter-ball politics. He’s always criticized those folks who’ve indulged in that, especially on the Republican side, in the past.

So, while [McCain] needs to play offense and define Barack Obama … Barack Obama is focused really on a larger target, the American people.

One more personal reaction from this independent voter.

On many issues, I’m actually closer to John McCain than to Barack Obama. But the John McCain I see today isn’t the John McCain I supported in 2000.

Can I get my 2000 support back?