Fission, Fusion, Tomato, Tomahto, let’s call the whole thing off.
My friend Ed Morrissey of Hot Air and I don’t generally see eye to eye when it comes to matters involving Iran, and his column today on that country’s nuclear power ambitions isn’t likely to change that. Most of the fuss arises from this short item from the BBC. It includes reports of a statement by Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani (pictured to the left) given as part of a speech delivered to students in Tehran.
The official Iranian news agency (IRNA) quotes Expediency Council chief, Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani as saying, “We have started the first activities of nuclear fusion.”
This clearly set off some alarm bells for Ed. He begins by noting that the Iranians are sitting on a “sea of oil” while claiming to be working toward nuclear energy capabilities.
Civilian nuclear power comes from fission, the splitting of atoms and the heat it releases. Fusion, on the other hand, has other uses as well. Hydrogen bombs rely on carefully constructed stages of both fission and fusion for their enormous release of power. In fact, thus far, hydrogen bombs have been the only successful and reliable fusion reactions produced by man.
Allow me to select a few bones to pick from this carcass. First of all, the Iranians are fully aware that they are sitting on a sea of oil. They would also have to be unimaginably stupid to not know that the sea of oil is eventually going to run out, and it will almost certainly happen during the first half of this century. When that happens, their economic hegemony in the area will unceremoniously end, and they may well find themselves suddenly thrust into third world status if they fail to find a new revenue stream. It’s not at all surprising that they would be looking into alternate energy sources, though it’s shocking that they wouldn’t be looking into mass amounts of solar energy. (A question for another day.)
It’s also not exactly accurate to say that nobody has achieved a successful and reliable fusion reaction. We’ve had a couple of experimental fusion reactors running for a while now. The main problem is that we can’t seem to figure out how to make them produce more usable energy than they consume in the process of operating. But be that as it may, I suppose the bottom line here is a question of what exactly Hashemi-Rafsanjani was saying during his remarks. I suppose it’s possible that he actually did say – and mean – fusion, as unlikely as it is that the Iranians would be mastering that technology for a reactor. But might anything else explain this?
First of all we’re dealing with a very short, one off news clip from the BBC which has been translated at least once. Is it possible that he actually said “fission” and it was copied over incorrectly? Here’s yet another possibility. Take a look at Hashemi-Rafsanjani’s background. Coming from a farming area, he studied to be a cleric and later moved into politics. This guy is no nuclear engineer. Because of my background, I happen to know the difference between fusion and fission, but I assure you that I speak to plenty of otherwise intelligent, educated people on a regular basis who couldn’t explain it without pulling up The Google. Might the cleric have misspoke?
It might also be helpful to take a look at some of his background.
Rafsanjani is a relatively moderate Iranian cleric who served two terms as president of the Islamic Republic of Iran, from August 17, 1989 to 1997. As president, Mr. Rafsanjani sought to encourage a rapprochement with the West and re-establish Iran as a regional power. His influence in Lebanon helped to bring about the release of Western hostages there in the early 1990s.
Rafsanjani doesn’t seem to fit the profile of somebody who would engage in that sort of reckless saber rattling. Besides, let’s assume that Iran actually is working on a bomb in secret. They are busy running around and insisting to the entire world that they are only working on nuclear technology for peaceful, energy generating purposes. Are you then going to turn around and go out in public and essentially admit you’re working on a bomb? Plus, he’s listed as being “one of, if not the richest man in Iran.” Not exactly the profile of a suicide bomber. He has a lot to lose.
There’s just something off about this story. I can’t conclusively say that it fails the smell test, but it’s definitely got me wrinkling my nose.
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21 Responses to “Fission, Fusion, Tomato, Tomahto, let’s call the whole thing off.”
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Of course, the tiny flaw in the ointment of this superficial attempt at “Iran's oil will run out” is that the country has the SECOND largest amount of natural gas of any country in the world after Russia.
Jazz doesn't know much about energy if he doesn't mention that, unless, of course, it is just another silly agitprop piece.
You might have mentioned that Rafsanjani controls the “Council of Guardians” & is positioning himself to succeed Ahmedinejad as President in the elections next spring. That would be political analysis, another Jazz shortcoming.
Iran is building the Bomb for reasons of regional hegemony & control over Gulf oil exports by fear & extortion once they obtain a nuke. It's just that simple. Go & join Newshoggers, Jazz, and drink that Iranian Kool-Aid at full strength.
I would tend to agree, Jazz. Plenty of politicians misspeak and trip over words. “The Google”, “The Internets”, “Louisiana is a city…”, etc. And it is possible that the Iranians are doing research into fusion. Why not? The “sea of oil” will run out eventually, and they'll need something else to use once that's gone. So will, the natural gas, dave. That's why, even in third grade science, they call them “nonrenewable” resources. So Iran's doing a better job than we are of planning ahead. The U.S. doesn't have a monopoly on doing big things, or being smart. Not by a long shot.
There you go again DaveinMouth , attacking Jazz ad hominem because that's all neocon spin can teach you.
“Iran is building the Bomb for reasons of regional hegemony & control over Gulf oil exports by fear & extortion once they obtain a nuke. It's just that simple. Go & join Newshoggers, Jazz, and drink that Iranian Kool-Aid at full strength.”
and you know this…how? Are you UNESCO or NRC or somesuch? Or did you suck at the vitriolic teat of college dropouts like Sean Hannity and Rush Limbo?
Please, offer qualifications before you launch another attack from the Rat's Mouth. You have every right to disagree with a post/ blog, but being an insufferable ass only denigrates your position.
The question isn't whether they are/aren't developing nuclear technology, or “nukular” if you prefer, it's to what end. Nuclear power and nuclear weapons are two divergent paths.
Could MEMRI have mistranslated a statement again to push their agenda(NEVER). LOL – Now the Iranians are going for miniaturized thermo-nucklear bombs to place on non-existent ICBM's.
Jazz, this is a subject I've dealt with in some detail over the years. Here's one of my posts on the subject. This paper is also very useful.
The long and the short is that Iran's explanations for their development program are either mistaken, irrational, or deliberately misleading which isn't a a very cheery selection.
Note BTW that I oppose military action against Iran. I am emphatically not a warmonger having opposed both the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. That doesn't mean that I think that Iran's intentions are benign.
At no point have I denied that Iran would *like* to have the bomb. I'm positive they would. And it's still certainly possible that they are either actively working on it or, as our intelligence reports suggest, have suspended a program which they may activate again at any point in the future. However, the original point of the piece was to note that this one offhand comment by an Iranian cleric speaking to students and using the word “fusion” is pretty thin gruel for proof that they are currently ramping up.
remember november
Although your silly post doesn't deserve a response, I will condescend to off My Qualifications:
I am a retired FSO who speaks Arabic at a 3+ level & reads it at a 4 level. [I assume from the content of your hysterical comment that you don't understand the State Dept's language testing system, as well as any rules of civil discourse].
I studied Arabic at FSI in Beirut & I worked three years in the Gulf as Political Military Officer in the US Embassy in Saudi Arabia. While performing my reporting tasks, I was in frequent communication with USMAAG, the military advisory group stationed in Tehran. I worked on several “White Papers” on the Middle East in the Dept of State. Subsequently, I was International Editor of The Oil Daily and then Political Risk Analyst for Amoco Corporation & BP. Subsequently, I was on the Board of Directors of The Middle East Journal for three years & there got to know Richard Helms, the former Ambassador to Iran. I was a scholar-in-residence at The Middle East Institute in Washington for a year. [of course, I don't expect you know or understand the status of either the publication or the institution. As a hint, the MEI was affiliated with Johns Hopkins SAIS, if you even know what SAIS is.]
After moving to Florida, I taught at Florida International University for a year & recently gave a talk on Iran in Coral Gables to about two hundred people which was hosted by the U. of Miami.
Of course, I neglected to point out that “Jazz's” description of Rafsanjani as a “farmer” overlooked the fact that his family is the largest grower & exporter of pistachios in Iran & is worth close to a billion dollars through that “farm product” & other business connections. I consult often with John Limbert, who has a PhD in Iranian studies from Harvard and was my colleague in the Foreign Service & a hostage for 444 days under the disastrous presidency of James Earl Carter.
The fact that Iran has the fifth largest petroleum reserves of proven recoverable crude oii in the world & the second largest natural gas reserves can be looked up in Oil & Gas Journal or any other reputable publication [Oh yeah, I once worked for Petroleum Intelligence Weekly after my Oil Daily stint, if you even are familiar with any oil publications.]
Methinks the “insufferable” shoe is on your foot. Furthermore, I find that the “liberal” & “progressive” part of the blogosphere rarely has a clue on either energy or Middle East policy issues.
“being an insufferable ass only denigrates your position” is obviously a projection of your own inadequacies on the subject. Pls offer your own qualifications or apologize & admit you are ignorant.
“W'Allah yikhrib beitak, ya himaar!
Jazz, the point in my comment is that in the body of the post you accepted the Iranians' rationale:
As pointed out in the link I posted they could forestall this by making capital improvements in their oil and gas production facilities significantly more quickly and at a significantly lower cost.
Are you suggesting that Iran intends to become an exporter of nuclear-produced electricity? Who would their customers be?
Are you suggesting they'd become an exporter of nuclear technology? If that's what you're suggesting you're not assuaging my concerns.
Not at all, Dave. (that's Dave_Schuler by the way.) I'm suggesting that at some point.. put the date wherever you like… their oil will be gone. At some point after that the natural gas will be gone too, and natural gas won't run everything. The improvements you note will certainly push the dates out, but they are still coming. Having nuclear and solar would provide, at least, for their own energy needs. And it will take time to develop those facilities. I doubt they will export much electricity, but they will need to keep their own lights on, etc. How they will keep their national income intact when there's no more crude to sell, I have no idea.
I won't get into “daveinboca's” comments which are fairly offensive without being productive and are in denial of the fact that fossil fuels are non-renewable, but I will ask why he felt the need to put “Jazz” in quotes. It's a nickname, but I'm not anonymous. I get mail under that name, it's on my office door and the front of my house. You don't care for my name? Suit yourself. You may now call me Bob or Joe or whatever.
The one thing we can be sure of, I think, is that Iran is aiming to be a major power worldwide and a dominant power in the region.
To determine what their plans are to achieve that goal involves too much guessing, for my taste. All the analyses seem to assume either that they think like we think, or that Iran is incapable of strategic blunders, like we are.
With due deference to daveinboca's expertise and experience, sometimes a surplus of knowledge in one area (a tree) can lead to losing sight of a broader perspective (the forest). To the degree that it inspires an arrogant faith in one's own conlusions, it blinds to other sources of knowledge and other conclusions.
My own strong position is: I don't know.
They manage to keep their secrets very well, something more difficult to do in Western democracies, and that's their trump card in this game of 'chicken'.
DaveinBoca said: “I am a retired FSO who speaks Arabic at a 3+ level & reads it at a 4 level…”
Language and communication are two different things Dave.
It's hard to listen to someone who comes across as a condescending ass, what ever language they speak.
How about a little moderation in your voice?
SteveK & Jazz & Whomever
Jazz merely characterized my arguments without attempting to refute them, and the rest of the pilot fish are simply miffed that they got found out.
The combination of ignorance & arrogance on the “liberal” energy front about fossil fuels is so overwhelming, I do admit to succumbing to Swiftian saeva indignatio in response. However, look to yourselves for arrogance & ignorance before accusing me of being some sort of beast of burden. Your orificial spew simply doesn't address any of my substantive points, which are that Iran is developing the bomb for regional dominance—problem being that said dominance would be over oil exports from the Gulf. Iran's “obsession” with Israel might not be as important to Iran as lording it over their Sunni rivals in the Gulf. Try to address that, Jazz, and realize that Iran has more hydrocarbons than any country in the region except Saudi Arabia, when both oil & gas are factored in. Enough for the rest of the twenty-first century between those two countries and their small neighbors—when both gas & oil reserves are toted up.
Have y'all noticed that Obama has just called for offshore drilling, demonstrating that at least he understands a little about REAL energy needs, unlike the liberals on this thread.
Jazz – I guess Daveinboca was offensive to you because he was able to prove he knows what the hell he is talking about, and you, apparently, cannot provide equivalent proof of your knowledge. As such, you fall back on typical Liberal reactions – insults.
Seems to be you have been completely and totally be-clowned, but reacted like most Liberals after a good be-clowning, not seeming to have the faculties to perceive what an ass they just made of themselves.
“Iran is building the Bomb for reasons of regional hegemony & control over Gulf oil exports by fear & extortion once they obtain a nuke. It's just that simple.”
That's the essence of what has been happening in Iran since the inception of its “peaceful” nuclear program.
It probably is possible to unearth somewhere a comment by an Iranian similar to what was made by Hussein in the 1970s about how a nuclear weapons program won't be initiated simply as such, but will be disguised as a peaceful civilian nuclear power program. There was no need to find such a quote by Hussein before Israel bombed Osiraq and there is no need to be deliberately stupid or anti-US-and-West here in the US and the rest of the West and claim with a straight face that the iranians, caught several times at diversion, concealment, and other game-playing with the rest of the world, are not seeking a nuclear weapon, much less are “victims” of the “aggressive, evil” US and West as the Chomsky scum-crowd would claim predictably.
“The combination of ignorance & arrogance on the “liberal” energy front about fossil fuels is so overwhelming”
There is arrogance and conceit as well as perpetual naivete' among the young.
“Have y'all noticed that Obama has just called for offshore drilling, demonstrating that at least he understands a little about REAL energy needs, unlike the liberals on this thread.”
He may outrage the idiots, but he has smartly defused the drilling issue by claiming a measure of sanity. Now he can Move On [tm].
“I am a retired FSO who speaks Arabic at a 3+ level & reads it at a 4 level.”
Mumfaz, mumfaz! (+ Osama bin charmuta) You should try to reach Francona at francona.com.
“Are you suggesting that Iran intends to become an exporter of nuclear-produced electricity? Who would their customers be?”
I don't think so many libs who defend Iran (!!!) even wonder if Iranians are being seen as customers for “peaceful nuclear electrity.” Iran is building one or more reactors, but is it building transmission lines, too? Oops.
Jazz — there's a big difference between fission and fusion that can't merely be relegated to preference of pronunciation.