Sabato’s Crystal Ball: CLOSE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS?

Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s Rhodes Cook says, CLOSE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: Not the American norm

For those voters who have come of age in the 21st century, the extremely close presidential elections of 2000 and 2004 must seem like the norm. But that is hardly the case. Over the course of American history, there have been more presidential elections decided by landslide margins than have been determined by narrow margins.

Of the 46 contests held since nationwide tallies of the popular vote began in the early 1800s:

* Twenty elections (or 43 percent) have been decided by a landslide margin of 10 percentage points or more.
* Twelve others (26 percent) have been clear-cut victories settled by margins ranging from 5 to 9.9 percentage points.
* Fourteen presidential contests (30 percent) have been determined by fewer than 5 percentage points.

The 2000 and 2004 elections fit snugly into the latter category. But in considering how unusual this is, ponder the fact that only once before in the nation’s history have there been at least three close presidential elections in a row. That streak occurred in the late 19th century, and ended with the decisive election of 1896 that tilted the political balance toward the Republicans for a generation to come. Might the 2008 election be so definitive?

Neither party gained the upper hand in presidential voting from 1876 through 1892. Each race was decided by a margin of 3 percentage points or less. Three contests were won by the Republicans, two by the Democrats.

And two of the elections that the Democrats lost in this period–those of 1876 and 1888 were Electoral College “misfires”–Democratic victories in the popular vote, Republican triumphs in the all-important electoral vote. That was the same dynamic evident in 2000, when Democrat Al Gore defeated Republican George W. Bush by more than 500,000 votes in the popular tally, which was trumped by Bush’s 5-vote edge in the Electoral College.

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