So Just Where Did Obama’s Mojo Go?

Neocon said: "Obama has 300 advisors and handlers and they are stumbling around worse then McCain who has 3 and those 3 are from the Laurel and Hardy school of Politics."

Hahahahaha....

Well, we should all have Obama's problems, Neocon. I imagine McCain wishes he had Obama's 300 morons to his 3.

Oh sure. Theres many a small cap funds that are about investing in oil discovery, drilling and production. My family run business was funded many times by small cap investors who put up millions to explore and produce oil and gas.

There are many ways to get smaller companies to have economic leverage in the oil industry. The problem with leasing is that the prime plots of land goes to the highest bidder and many a time these lease are paid for by oil flowing into the National Petroleum Reserves in LA. The problem with that is that the big 5 have easy access to oil and thus pumping say 100k barrells of oil out of a field and putting it into the NPR is waaaaay cheaper then spending cash that the smaller companies who do not have oil reserves have to spend in order to obtain a lease.

Many dynamics in the leasing business that both parties do not want you to know. Bush and company want oil to stay high so they released an oil summation that says exploration and drilling will make no difference in oil prices.

Well when that was written it WOULD NOT HAVE. 2 years ago the oil prices were in the 30 dollar range and drilling more oil at that time WOULD NOT HAVE MATTERED to the price of oil.

Drilling now does. Remember your not rewarding the oil companies. Your rewarding the working man who cant pay 4 and 5 dollars for gasoline. I can pay it. Bush can pay it. Obama can pay it. Pelosi can pay it. Drilling more oil actually will punish the oil companies by bringing down the price of oil.

Are the smaller companies even capable of expending billions of dollars to put a working field into operation?

When we have another energy topic I will try to explain how all this works and why your are correct in assuming the big 5 do not want to drill.

However remember that the big 5 represent well less then half of the oil industry in America. Over the years they simply adopted a policy that it was cheaper to let the smaller firms find the oil and then buy their finds. The smaller companies were willing to sell because the price of oil was not worth enough to expend billions to put a working field into operation.

Neocon--

Thank you for that validation. It might be worth listening to you after all. ; )

Mike P.: Thanks. The big picture is what counts. Are you enjoying that divergence?

However there are about 50 other smaller companies that do most of the drilling, exploration and production of the oil.

The big 5 simply buy out the smaller drillers oil and sit on it.

That was until oil got to be this expenisve. Now the wildcaters are willing to not only explore but to produce. I can guarantee you that given the incentives that wildcaters can get oil from the ground to tankers in one year and to pipelines in 3 years.

It took us about 8 months to put out 650 well head fires in Kuwait. Im pretty sure we can get oil to tankers in a year.

Yes my friend GeorgeSorwell

I totally agree with you. YOU ARE 100 PERCENT ACCURATE.

THE BIG 5 DO NOT want to drill for any new oil.

Neocon--

There are millions of acres of domestic land available for drilling that is not being drilled.

Maybe the oil companies don't feel any need to drill there because they are making record profits on the areas they have already developed.

Anyone with an internet connection can look these things up. Or they can just repeat the desperate right-wing talking points.

People don't listen to me cause Im NEOCON. However if they would Obama would be up by 30 points.

Obama has pathetic handlers who are inexperienced. They do not understand politics and they are taking a brand and trying to promote it as if its the holy graille.

Obama is an unknown. He has done nothing in the senate expect campaign for the Presidency. He is all over the board on issues. He is antiIraq and proAfghanistan. He has made huge blunders on foreign policy speechs.

He is portrayed as the presumptive winner in November.

I mean the list of wrongs goes on and on an on with his handlers.

But most importantly he is saddled with a Democratic party who has a lower approval rating then does GWB. They were elected in 2006 to clean up the mess and things have just gotten worse under their watch.

The perception is growing that they want Americans to suffer for power. The far left wants to Impeach Bush but the democrats in congress know that if that happens that half of them will stand trial with them because behind the scenes they gave him permission to do the things he did. Bush did not yell Yeee ha, slam the door in the Democrats face and run off defacing the constitution as the far left would have us believe.

So Obama's problems?

His handlers and his party. Gas is killing us and Obama cant drill cause the left/democrats wont let him. So where does that leave the average american?

Broke. The Democrats have promised to fix it before and what happened.........hell they DID NOTHING but whine and complain its all the GOP's fault. America is tired of the democrats as much as they are tired of the GOP.

Obama has 300 advisors and handlers and they are stumbling around worse then McCain who has 3 and those 3 are from the Laurel and Hardy school of Politics.

Thats his problem.

The reason Senator Obama is not doing better is he wants to win while holding as much of the traditional Democratic power groups together. He could gain more support by coming out for something other than give the teachers unions whatever they want educational policy or he could have come out against racial preferences. Yet, Senator Obama knows that he is head and does not see the reason to spend political capital to just increase the margin.

To add to DLS's links above: http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-...

Jus' keepin' it real...

"Because Obama's campaign is a fine machine."

Very fine. But in addition, there's worship of the man. Any misstep or failure to perform miracles is cause for (greatly excessive and ridiculous) concern. What was that someone said about Great Expectations?

Meanwhile, don't panic, Obamaniacs. There is no "PLUNGE! Obama is DOOMED! [gasp, gasp]" in Obama's position relative to McCain's.

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08...

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08...

Yeah, they should just relax and wait until after it's too late (Denver).

Then they'll have a real cause for concern. If they're rattled by missing mojo now, they're going to be quivering basket-cases by October.

Why should you expect a bounce from Obama's foreign trip. Your bias and departure from reality are showing. (Also, no need to panic right now or be obscessed by the polls of the hour; Shaun isn't panicking and he knows the bigger story remains the failures of the McCain campaign and that much of the public is out on summer vacation. After the conventions is when the contest as opposed to the weather will get truly hot.)

* * *

"Please, people, what's the last time a Democrat won by more than the 7 points Obama leads McCain? 1964."

The media were tilting the playing field back then, too, as we know.

In the primaries everyone expected Obama to have an immediate bounce from something and kept worrying about it and obsessing over it.
About 2 or 3 weeks later it showed up.
This is the usual course for a bounce. You will not see one that minute. It takes about 2 weeks or more and yet, the pundits obsess and obsess.
They should know better.

This is one in a long line of analyses asking why Obama does not lead by 40 points.

Please, people, what's the last time a Democrat won by more than the 7 points Obama leads McCain? 1964.

I noticed the same thing that Djshay did.

A month ago they were 50-45 in favor of Obama.

This month's poll numbers are 51-44 in favor of Obama.

That's a seven-point difference in Obama's favor.

Plus: Obama is now over 50% while McCain is now under 45%.

Does the data actually support the analysis?

More than that, would data at this point be useful in predicting the only poll results that matter--the ones that occur on Election Day?

I realize that it's traditional at this point in the campaign to declare the Republican candidate is "toast" or some such thing. (Please do click that link if you enjoy smug cluelessness!!)

I also realize (as Joe Gandelman has been pointing out all summer) that Obama has not sealed the deal. Really, polls are in July are not very good indicators of anything. Ask Michael Dukakis about that. Ask Ross Perot.

It can't be because he's run out of charismatic steam...

It's obvious. Dr. Evil stole it.

lol...

Djshay said: "I'm amazed at how people think Obama should have something like a 90-10 lead over McCain and when it's only 7 or 8 ask "What's wrong?"

Because Obama's campaign is a fine machine. Note, for example, he and Michelle becoming "Bragelina" with their People family cover.

Note his calculated pivots on FISA. His easing anxieties about support for Israel.

Every day a new proposal...a steady, relentless progress....

I am not an Obama supporter, but his campaign is clearly far superior to McCain's (as it was to Clinton's).

One has to give Senator Obama his due.

Shaun said: "The other half of the question is why is it that war hero McCain, whose brand has been well known for so many years and has connections out the wazoo, is dead in the water and not gaining on Obama?"

Obama is running a sophisticated campaign . . . McCain campaign, not so much.

Obama should be light-years ahead.

I disagree with ChrisWWW in that I don't think Obama needs rely on a worsening economy or the Iraq War worsening.

Obama is clearly running the better campaign. If he can deal with latent anxieties about him . . . the source of this lack of mojo, I believe . . . he will win handily.

(There is the possibility that McCain will metamorphose into a strong candidate/campaign. Of course, there is also the possibility that Shaun could be elected Emperor for Life :)

He did have a bounce. At one point he was up by 7 points late last week, but things have settled down now. Do you not look at the daily Rasmussen and Gallup polls before you write these things? I'm amazed at how people think Obama should have something like a 90-10 lead over McCain and when it's only 7 or 8 ask "What's wrong?"

I'm inclined to agree with Ezra Klein on this sort of thing. The election "environment" has a lot more to do with the candidate's success than campaigning.

I suspect that Obama's position will improve dramatically if the economy continues to decline, or if the Iraq War situation gets worse.

Malcolm is only asking half of the question and not factoring in that we're approaching the dog days of summer and not the post-Labor Day sprint to Election Day.

The other half of the question is why is it that war hero McCain, whose brand has been well known for so many years and has connections out the wazoo, is dead in the water and not gaining on Obama?