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Sabato’s Crystal Ball: A NEW ELECTORATE IN THE MAKING?
07/17/2008
Rhodes Cook on A NEW ELECTORATE IN THE MAKING?
Speculation abounds these days about whether this fall’s presidential election will produce a dramatically different electoral map than the virtually static one of the last two contests. Will Colorado and Virginia lead an array of longtime Republican states that might be won this time by Democrat Barack Obama? Or might Michigan and Pennsylvania be in the vanguard of Democratic strongholds picked off by Republican John McCain?
Those are among the more intriguing questions as the 2008 general election campaign heats up. But one thing’s for sure: changes in the electoral map require some alterations in the electorate itself. And that seems to be happening.
One Response to “Sabato’s Crystal Ball: A NEW ELECTORATE IN THE MAKING?”
Virginia could easily go blue. “Northern Virginia” (DC metro on Virginia side of the Potomac) is, after all, the place where you see rainbow stickers on cars, rainbow steering wheel covers — things that tell you the place is blue, not solidly red as other parts of the state are reputed to be. (I'd like to see a pair of GBLT guys stop someday and give a ride to a stranded Religious Right member whose vehicle broke down, but can't make that happen.)
I'd be surprised if the GOP took anything blue; to me the question will be how many red states go blue, how many Congressional seats fall to the Dems, and by how large a margin Obama wins. Will it be 62-38 or higher? How will the Dems in Washington respond to such an election result?