What’s Hot in Florida?
According to a rather amusing analysis from the Sun Sentinel the hot seller in Florida right now is the Democratic Party, who are “outselling” the Republicans in terms of new voter registrations by more than a two to one margin.
An escalating number of voters registering as Democrats is providing evidence that the 2008 election could produce a wave of support for Barack Obama — and trigger a decades-long shift of party allegiance that could affect elections for a generation.
The numbers are ominous for Republicans: Through May, Democratic voter registration in Broward County was up 6.7 percent. Republican registrations grew just 3 percent while independents rose 2.8 percent.
People have been hinting about the Sunshine State skewing more and more toward the Democrats since the 2000 cycle. Could this be the year when the predictions actually come true? I think it might be a bit of a stretch to call this the start of a “generational shift” which will influence elections in the direction of the donkey for decades to come. But you never know.
Frankly, I still think energy policy will be issue number one by the time November rolls around, and if Floridians wind up embracing offshore drilling, McCain can still find some leverage there. Either way, Florida will once again be the focus of much attention this fall. The Obama team seems to feel they can stitch together a winning electoral map without Florida, but most of the analysis I’ve seen thus far have it as a must win state for John McCain if he wants to carry the election.
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4 Responses to “What’s Hot in Florida?”
What is really happening is that the Repubican Party is in a death spiral and the U.S. is becoming a one party state. The Democratic gains in Florida, Virginia, North Carolina along with the collapse of the Republican Parties in New Hampshire, Colorado, Iowa, Missouri, etc just mean that the in the future, the only relevant elections
SD,
Would you care to explain to me why a white working class family (yearly income 50 to 70 thousands) should vote for the Republican Candidate?
What policies do the Republicans offer that would make that families economic life better?
And don't tell me that the Democrats are going to be worse, because we have just had six years of pure hardcore Republican policies and the results are there for all to see.
Don_Quijote,
If the Bush Administration had actually done what they proposed during the election of 2000, there could be a few reasons why white middle class Americans would want to vote for Republicans. I assume that family would like their savings taxed at a low rate, that the family has kids either in school or applying to college, that the family has a home and lives in a neighbood that need some level of protection. However, given the performance of the Bush Administration, the Repubicans have lost all crediblity with middle class Americans.
However, neither party really appeals to middle class white Americans. Those Americans do not support open borders and unlimited immigration, do not support expansion of the government, do not support racial set asides, do not support depolicing, and do not support higher taxes. Those families want public schools that actually educate their children, want colleges where people are admitted on merit, want a healthy private sector that creates jobs, want low crime, low less traffic, and want to be able to save some money.
However, since both parties support open borders, racial set asides, sociel engineering in the schools, and massive expansion of the federal government, neither party really has much appeal to them.
One thing that just might make a difference is a generational shift among Cuban-Americans. The younger ones look at a decades-long embargo against Cuba that has accomplished absolutely nothing and wonder what in the heck their elders and the Republicans who support them are thinking. They also are not willing to be the one issue voters that many of their elders have been. They are open to the Obama campaign on other issues and are unlikely to be the true red Republican supporters their parents have been.