Sabato’s Crystal Ball: SENATE SENSIBILITIES – The Update

I missed several Sabato’s Crystal Ball emails due to accidental unsubscribing. Here is one of many make-up posts.

06/19/2008

Larry J. Sabato on SENATE SENSIBILITIES – The Update: The ’08 battles for the U.S. Senate

Lots of exciting changes have occurred in the nation’s Senate races since we last reviewed them in December 2007. Yet overall, the outlook hasn’t changed much. Democrats will pick up seats to pad their slim 51-to-49 margin. They are defending a mere 12 seats, and all their incumbents are running again. The Republicans have drawn the short straw, trying to protect 23 seats with five incumbents retiring in a tough political environment for the GOP.

It is still too early to project the exact size of expected Democratic gains, but it will be a major surprise if Democrats fail to add at least three or four seats. The total of projected Democratic gains may well rise considerably, possibly five to seven, depending on the electoral conditions prevailing in the fall. The GOP’s only real hope in Senate contests is that John McCain wins the Presidency handily, generating coattail in some key match-ups. In any event, the Democrats currently seem unlikely to hit the magic number of 60 seats, needed to shut down filibusters. (That assumes all 60 Democrats would stick together on key votes. Good luck.)

As we noted in an earlier analysis, the Senate has changed party control six times: in 1980 (D to R), 1986 (R to D), 1994 (D to R), 2001 (R to D), 2002 (D to R), and 2006 (R to D). This is no longer a rare event. Still, 2008 is virtually certain not to generate a seventh such shift. Let’s go to the states and see why….

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