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Sabato’s Crystal Ball: CAN MCCAIN OVERCOME THE TRIPLE WHAMMY?
I missed several Sabato’s Crystal Ball emails due to accidental unsubscribing. Here is one of many make-up posts.
05/29/2008
With the long and contentious Democratic nomination race finally winding down, the attention of the media and the public is beginning to shift to the general election. In November, voters will face a choice between two rather atypical presidential candidates. For the first time in over fifty years, the party that controls the White House will not be represented by either the incumbent president or the incumbent vice-president.
Instead, the Republican Party, which has seen its popularity and electoral fortunes plummet since 2004, will pin its hopes on John McCain – an individual who has frequently clashed with his own party’s leadership. And McCain’s Democratic opponent will be Barack Obama, the first African-American ever to receive a major party presidential nomination.
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Three indicators of the national political climate have accurately predicted the outcomes of presidential elections since the end of World War II: the incumbent president’s approval rating at mid-year, the growth rate of the economy during the second quarter of the election year, and the length of time the president’s party has held the White House.
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