Obama’s Bounce: 15 Points Ahead Of McCain In Newsweek Poll

Pundits and cartoonists can finally stop expressing amazement: it took a while, but a Newsweek poll shows Democratic presumptive Presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama has finally gotten his long anticipated “bounce” in the polls following the rival candidate Sen. Hillary Clinton’s suspension of her campaign.

A new Newsweek polls shows Obama has now opened up a “substantial double-digit lead, 51 percent to 36 percent, over McCain among registered voters nationwide.” And several factors are in play:

1. Americans are increasingly dissatisfied over the direction of the country. A shockingly low 14 percent are satisfied with direction. Translate that and it means: Americans want a change in direction which would support the argument for a change in the team that administers the direction. So McCain’s tightrope walk is getting tougher each day.

2. The Republican brand name has been tarnished under Bush, even though you would not know it listening to some talk shows. Newsweek finds “55 percent of all voters call themselves Democrats or say they lean toward the party while just 36 percent call themselves Republicans or lean that way.”

3. Women now favor Obama over McCain by 21 points. So — despite a group of Clinton supporters working for McCain — this poll finds signs many of Clinton’s supporters are going to support the Demmies. Look for that number to increase after Clinton campaigns with Obama this week.

Another significant factor: Obama’s ratings are going up while McCain’s are going down. Note, though, that this poll was taken before the controversy over Obama’s flip-flop on public financing of his campaign.

Obama’s personal ratings have improved, as well: 62 percent of voters overall say they have a favorable opinion of him compared to only 26 percent who have an unfavorable opinion. By comparison, McCain’s ratings are 49 percent favorable to 37 percent unfavorable, representing a drop from his previous 54 percent favorable rating.

Prediction: the Republicans are going to work hard to reverse this trend, just as the Democrats are going to work hard to make sure McCain’s number trend continues heading south.

Another factor in the poll should be of enormous concern to the McCain camp: Obama wins hands down when voters are asked about who they feel can handle the economy and jobs:

Obama is trusted more to handle what may prove the biggest issue of the 2008 election–the economy and jobs—by a wide margin (54 percent to 29 percent). He also has a sizable advantage on energy policy, 48 percent to 34 percent, despite McCain’s attempts this week to turn voters his way by supporting some new oil drilling and renewing his call for a gas-tax holiday. Voters do not lean as strongly to Obama on the issue of the Iraq War, but he is still preferred over McCain by 46 percent to 40 percent.

Newsweek’s conclusion:

Barack finally has his bounce. For weeks many political experts and pollsters have been wondering why the race between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain had stayed so tight, even after the Illinois senator wrested the nomination from Hillary Clinton. With numbers consistently showing rock-bottom approval ratings for President Bush and a large majority of Americans unhappy with the country’s direction, the opposing-party candidate should, in the normal course, have attracted more disaffected voters. Now it looks as if Obama is doing just that. A new NEWSWEEK Poll shows that he has a substantial double-digit lead, 51 percent to 36 percent, over McCain among registered voters nationwide.

In the previous NEWSWEEK Poll, completed in late May when Clinton was still fighting him hard for the Democratic nomination, Obama managed no better than a 46 percent tie with McCain. But as pollster Larry Hugick points out, that may have had a lot to do with all the mutual mudslinging going on between the two Democrats. By contrast, in recent weeks Clinton has not only endorsed Obama but has made plans to campaign with him. “They were in a pitched battle, and that’s going to impact things. Now that we’ve gotten away from that period, this is the kind of bounce they’ve been talking about,” said Hugick.

TNR’s The Stump blog says this about the poll:

It shows him leading McCain 51-36 overall after being tied at 46 a month ago. Perhaps more encouragingly, Obama does better among Democrats (80-11) than McCain does among Republicans (78-12) and enjoys a substantial lead (69-18) among Clinton supporters. He also leads 48-36 among Independents, 45-43 among whites, 54-33 among women, and 44-41 among people 60 and over.

It’s all slightly too good to be believed, but the trend line is probably accurate, which has to worry the McCain camp.

–The Jed Report offers a note of warning:

There’s no doubt that this poll accurately reflects Barack’s bounce, and there’s no doubt that he’s leading.

As for whether he’s actually leading by 15 points — color me skeptical.

Read the entire post for details.
So what DOES it mean?

It’s another snapshot in time — and it must be compared with other polls. GO HERE to Pollster.com and see the chart. Obama is ahead in most polls — but in this one, he is ahead by a whopping lead.

The trending, Pollster.com indicates, is in Obama’s favor. Here’s their graphing of cumulative polls: