Hillary Clinton is expected to officially enter the race for the Democratic nomination on Sunday, starting as a tremendous favorite to win the nomination. She is hoping for no drama within her campaign, but will have to face external drama, including scandals and opposition from liberal Democrats on her views on economic policy, foreign policy, government secrecy, civil liberties, social issues, and environmental issues.
Demographics also give her the edge to win the general election should she win the nomination with Democrats having an advantage (although not a lock) in the electoral college. The way in which she has been on a downward trajectory in the swing state polls, and the considerable risk of her campaign coming apart due to scandals (especially over campaign finance, the Foundation, and selling influence), create questions as to how she will do in a general election campaign.
With her announcement imminent, Clinton continues to drop in the swing state polls. The Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll shows Clinton trailing or tied in match-ups against Republicans in Iowa and Colorado while still holding a lead in Virginia:
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s lead is wilting against leading Republican presidential candidates in three critical swing states, Colorado, Iowa and Virginia, and she finds herself in a close race with U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky in each state, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today. In head-to-head matchups, every Republican candidate effectively ties her in Colorado and almost all Republicans effectively tie her in Iowa.
Secretary Clinton has lost ground in almost every matchup in Colorado and Iowa since a February 18 Swing State Poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. The Swing State Poll focuses on key states in the presidential election.
One bright spot for Clinton is Virginia, the largest of the three states, where she leads all Republicans, including 47 – 40 percent over Bush, compared to a 42 – 42 percent tie in February.
Voters in each state say Clinton is not honest and trustworthy. Her overall favorability has dropped significantly in Colorado and Iowa, while Virginia is unchanged. Favorability ratings for the Republicans are lackluster, at best.
The poll has her trailing Rand Paul in both Iowa and Colorado. She is even struggling against candidates such as Ted Cruz and Mike Huckabee. Although she does better in head to head matches against the Republican candidates in Virginia, and the numbers aren’t as bad as in the other swing states, Clinton is still not trusted:
Clinton is not honest and trustworthy, Virginia voters say 52 – 40 percent. Her e-mail scandal is important to their vote, 51 percent of voters say, while 47 percent say it’s not so important or not important at all. The e-mail issue makes 39 percent less likely to voter for her, while 56 percent say it makes no difference.
Serious questions about the e-mail scandal remain, 54 percent of voters say, while 38 percent say Clinton has given satisfactory answers. Virginia voters say 51 – 46 percent a Congressional investigation into the e-mail scandal would be politically motivated.
The email scandal is more likely to hurt her as more voters are paying attention to the issue, but Clinton is likely to receive a favorable bounce after announcing her candidacy.
Some Democrats have been willing to ignore both Clinton’s ethical lapses and her conservative views due to the belief that she has the best chance to win the general election. Instead it is increasingly looking like Clinton might have a difficult time winning the 2016 election. A recent Bloomberg poll is consistent with other polls in showing Democrats hoping for a primary challenge to Clinton. Motivations range from outright opposition to Clinton as the nominee to thinking Clinton make a better candidate if challenged, or realizing a Plan B is needed should Clinton self-destruct while there is still time to chose a different nominee.
Update: Clinton Receiving Criticism On Economic And Foreign Policy From Two Potential Democratic Challengers
Updated from a post at Liberal Values