Re-Thinking the Benefit of the Doubt

Last week, I offered a parsed defense of Hillary Clinton — challenging Andrew Sullivan and others who suggest Clinton is motivated by “power-at-any-cost” to recognize that she might be just as driven (if not more so) by her legacy than by her quest for power. I went on to write that, regardless of what her most spiteful detractors claim, I’d be willing to give her the benefit of the doubt, if she handled her rightful exit from this nomination fight with dignity and grace.

So much for that.

Per TMV Chief Joe Gandelman’s latest round-up report, dignity and grace seem once again to be in terribly short supply at Clinton HQ. Per Joe, Clinton’s argument now seems to boil down to “it’s a stolen primary, unless I get the nom.”

Of course, I could just buck up and bide my time, secure in the inevitable pro-Obama math. Or I could follow my own advice, offered in the comments thread of Jill Miller Zimon’s post earlier today, where I suggested that we Obama supporters might help our man most by treating Hillary and her supporters with our own, healthier blend of dignity and respect, thereby easing the transition of more supporters, from her to him, post-primary-season.

But then, this voice in the back of my head keeps interrupting my confidence and civility. That voice belongs to a Republican staffer in the House of Reps, a guy I’ve known for a couple of years now. He’s a calm, decent, focused, hardworking sort, not prone to hyperbole or alarm. He confided that an equally trusted source he knows within the Democratic ranks shared with him this tidbit from the reigning conventional wisdom inside the Beltway: “If the fight goes to the Convention, Hillary wins.”

Why? Because no one knows better than the Clintons (especially Bill) how to work the back alleys and dark rooms of Convention politics.

“Ahh, get a grip,” the rest of you might tell me. “That’s the stuff of movies and novels.”

Maybe. Maybe not.

Regardless, in an attempt to boost my confidence and sustain a semblance of civility, I went back to my trustworthy spreadsheets and sources, and started crunching numbers, taking a very conservative approach to the remaining pledged delegates, superdelegates, and the outcome of the May 31 meeting on the Fla. and Mich. delegates — trying to devine what things might look like the morning of June 4.

Without boring you with all the details, here’s where I ended up: approximately 2,100 total delegates in Obama’s column; 2010 in Hillary’s; and 300 still uncommitted.

Those 300 uncommitted are a combination of super-d’s and pledged-d’s, with the latter derived from a scenario wherein party leaders decide on May 31 not to seat all the Fla. and Mich. delegates in either the Obama or Clinton camps, but leave a “fair portion” up for grabs. Is that scenario more unlikely than likely? I don’t know, but again, this was a very conservative approach, because I didn’t want my numbers to be unduly skewed by my pro-Obama bias.

Of course, after reading those numbers, you might think, “Obama still wins. He passes the 2,026 mark.” Think again. Once Mich. and Fla. delegates are seated, the Clinton camp’s proclaimed winning number of 2,210 becomes the real number, as I understand it, which would leave Obama about 110 short and Hillary about 200 short of the mark, with those 300-some-odd uncommitteds left to perform the Solomonesque, split-the-baby task many have feared all along.

Now, if current trends hold, Obama boosters might assume, “No problem. All our candidate needs is a little more than a third of those three-hundred uncommitteds, and he’s there.”

OK. I agree. That’s an encouraging thought. But then, that aforementioned voice in the back of my head kicks in: “If the fight goes to the Convention, Hillary wins.”

And if Joe Gandelman’s right, if Hillary tries to to win the nomination by driving this race to the convention, by convincing her supporters that an Obama coronation is illegitimate, there will be an equal number who will retaliate, labeling her nomination as illegitimate — and that shorn baby will simply not live, no matter how skillful the 300-heads of Solomon prove to be.

I feel overwhelming pity for those 300 heads of Solomon. They’re most certainly damned if they do, damned if they don’t. Meanwhile, McCain is increasingly likely to do what McCain does best: Victory by survival.