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How would we know if the surge worked, when the goals and measures of success are regularly changed?
The surge had the effect of reducing violence. What other unforseen consequences it will have is a matter for the future to divulge.
Some people are attribuitng Maliki's willingness to take on the militias in Basra to the surge. It could also be a sign that Maliki is listening to the talk about withdrawal.
We can be assured that we'll be arguing about this forever, no matter what happens next.
EEllis
The surge worked as far as any military standard. Since it was a military operation it has to be labeled a success. Unfortunately there are questions about the progress on the non-military fronts that don't look as promising.