Poll: Clinton Leads 26% In Kentucky, Obama Ahead 4% In Oregon

A new Suffolk University poll puts Senator Hillary Clinton ahead by double digits in tomorrow’s Kentucky Democratic Presidential primary and Senator Barack Obama ahead by a narrow single digit margin in Oregon.

In Kentucky, Hillary Clinton (51 percent) led Barack Obama (25 percent) by 26 points, followed by John Edwards (6 percent) and “uncommitted” (5 percent), while 11 percent were undecided.

In Oregon, Obama (45 percent) led Clinton (41 percent) by 4 points, with 8 percent undecided and 6 percent refusing a response.

“With the nominating contest winding down, it’s unusual – to say the least – to have two states’ polls literally poles apart,” said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Boston’s Suffolk University. “And I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a disparity in a
presidential candidate’s popularity from state to state.”

In Kentucky Obama’s popularity is as high — or, rather as low — as it was in West Virginia:

The most dramatic difference was in Obama’s personal popularity. In Kentucky, Obama was recording favorability similar to his rating in West Virginia, with a 43 percent favorable rating and a 43 percent unfavorable rating. (In West Virginia, Obama had 44 percent favorable and 41 percent unfavorable ratings and lost by 41 points to Clinton.) Yet Obama’s popularity soars in Oregon, where 73 percent view him favorably and 15 percent unfavorably.

“Usually when a candidate has a high favorability, it trends high nationally, with limited variations regionally. Here, when you get to states like Kentucky and West Virginia, there’s a kind of political inelasticity or unwillingness to replicate Obama’s popularity elsewhere.”

In the expectations game, Clinton has long been expected to win in Kentucky. And Obama has long been expected to win in Oregon, where yesterday his rally attracted 75,000 people — the biggest campaign rally in Oregon history.

If Clinton just squeaked by in Kentucky or Obama lost Oregon, it would not look good for either of them because it’d be an “upset.” Certainly in Obama’s case, it would likely not derail his nomination but it would give impetus to the Clinton campaign, which according to some reports has concluded the numbers to win are simply not there.

However, as in other races, all polls don’t agree. Look at Pollster.com’s list of polls and you can see a huge variation with some polls putting Obama way ahead. Partisans usually pick the poll they agree with and say IT is accurate.