The Middle East’s ‘Ominous Mechanism’ Kicks In …

The events now unfolding in the Middle East, which have been set in motion by Hezbullah’s takeover last week of much of Beirut, do not bode well for American or Israeli interests, warns one of France’s leading historians and journalists, Alexandre Adler.

Writing for France’s Le Figaro newspaper, Adler writes that Iranian President Ahmadinidjad, hemmed in by opponents at home and abroad, has turned to one of the last cards he holds in his hand: the Lebanese Hezbullah:

“Let us first turn to Iran, which is in a fever and where the most decisive threats originate. Iran’s President and his trusted accomplices – and a pro-Iranian faction of al-Qaeda – hope to recreate unity among all people of Muslim faith for a renewed jihad against America and Israel. Voices have been heard, notably among the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt, who hope for such an outcome and support Iran’s nuclear program, which many Islamists – not only in Cairo – regard as a liberating force that should be immediately employed against Israel, whatever the risks.”

After discussing Hezbullah’s plans for civil war in Lebanon to dislodge its pro-Western opposition, Adler warns:

“Israel cannot tolerate a military victory for Hezbullah over its [pro-West] Lebanese opponents – any more than it can allow Ahmadinejad to pursue nuclear blackmail, especially in this very strange context: There is the probability that a Democratic candidate – indeed an Obama election victory – could bring to the White House a supporter of negotiations at all costs. … Clearly, this is a distressing 60th anniversary for Israel.”

This is a seminal article about what the United States now confronts, and it should be read by anyone interested in understanding this very important and hard-to-penetrate topic.

The Chronicle of Alexandre Adler

Translated By Sandrine Ageorges

May 9, 2008

France – Le Monde – Original Article (France)

An ominous mechanism seems to have been set in motion in the Middle East. It has conspicuous causes, secondary causes and even unforeseeable hazards that nevertheless lead to a very clear convergence of threats.

Let us first turn to Iran, which is in a fever and where the most decisive threats originate. Paradoxically, this isn’t because Iran is growing ever-stronger that’s so dangerous, but that its domestic crisis is growing more acute. Iran’s last legislative elections were indeed fixed through vote-rigging and censorship, and have resulted in an uncertain outcome: two-thirds of the new Majlis [Parliament ] call themselves “conservative,” but two-thirds also reject President Ahamdinejad and would like to see him replaced by men like the mayor of Teheran, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf or former nuclear negotiator Ali Ardashir Larijani , who have expressed doubts about both the intransigence and hysterics of Iran’s current president.

At this moment, the crux of the confrontation lies in Iraq where, unlike in Teheran, everything is clear and explicit: the Mahdi Army of Moqtada al-Sadr embodies Ahmadinejad’s point of view, whereas the Badr Brigades – created by the Iranians themselves – are along with their leader Ayatollah al-Hakim , part of the movement of [former Iranian President] Rafsanjani , who no longer hides his desire to reach a compromise with the United States.

It is well known that Ahmadinejad has long-desired to put an end to the bloodshed between Shiites and Sunnis in Iraq which has begun to spread far and wide, from Pakistan all the way to distant Yemen. For this, Iran’s President and his trusted accomplices – and a pro-Iranian faction of al-Qaeda – hope to recreate unity among all people of Muslim faith for a renewed jihad against America and Israel. Voices have been heard, notably among the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt , who hope for such an outcome and support Iran’s nuclear program, which many Islamists – not only in Cairo – regard as a liberating force that should be immediately employed against Israel, whatever the risks.

READ ON AT WORLDMEETS.US, along with continuing translated foreign press coverage of the expanding crisis in the Middle East as it pertains to the United States.