Is Iran the big winner of the Iraq war?

Over at Newshoggers, Ron Beasley examines the fact that, prior to the invasion of Iraq, some observers – including Juan Cole – predicted that Iran would be one of the greatest benefactors of the Iraq war. In a previous Newshoggers post, Cernig noted that two consecutive standoffs between Maliki and Sadr have now been resolved only after being brokered by Iran. This, in Cernig’s opinion, makes the Iranians the undisputed “Big Brother” of the neighborhood for Iran. Beasley reads this as as closure of the Iraq situation, though perhaps not what America had been hoping for.

Yes the war is over and we have a winner – Iran. Iran is calling all the shots in Iraq and the US is propping up and supporting Iran’s proxy government there. Perhaps it’s time to let Iran prop up their government with their blood and treasure. So the US toppled Iran’s chief nemesis in the area, Saddam, and then placed in power and continue to prop up an Iranian friendly junta. It would appear the Bush administration is a pretty good enemy to have.

Perhaps too pat of an answer, but it does raise some interesting questions which the candidates will need to address for voters this fall. With the image of Iran’s president taking a sunlit stroll alongside Maliki through the streets of Baghdad combined with Iran’s brokerage of problems which we might expect America to resolve, has Iraq’s old enemy secured a position of increased influence in the region? Also, should the United States and/or her allies choose to strike any targets inside of Iran, will this complicate the situation on the ground for our troops, surrounded by Iran’s Shiite friends who whole the majority there?

The age of clear cut winners and losers in modern warfare seems to have come to a close. It would be ironic indeed if the winner of a present day war turned out to be someone who wasn’t even one of the combatants.