Various news and political reports the past few months have suggested that former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush — one of the last hope for (somewhat) moderate (moderately conservative) Republicans as New Jersy Gov. Chris Christie sinks in national polls — is seriously pondering a run for the White House. Now, as The Tampa Bay Times’ Alex Leary reports, it really does sound like Jeb is in, even with the obligatory hedge that he’s still thinking about it:
As presidential talk steadily grows around him, a fundamental question lingers over Jeb Bush: Does he, as probable rival Chris Christie recently said, have the “fire in the belly to do this?”
The fire in the belly for Jeb Bush isn’t about a desire for the White House. He most certainly has that. The fire in the belly is whether he has the stomach for what is likely to come: a bruising fight within his own party where his brother’s failures and unpopularity will be chained around his neck like an anchor, and an instant collection of Bush foes in and out of the party who cringe at the thought of a third Bush in the White House.
But his activity fits the mold of someone who’s running:
Two appearances last week in starkly different settings — a black-tie dinner Monday in Manhattan and a commencement address Saturday at the Christian college that bears this town’s name — suggest that the former Florida governor is summoning the energy and exposing his strengths and weaknesses for a 2016 campaign.
“If you feel inspired to serve your fellow citizens, don’t let the ugliness of politics keep you from pursuing public office. There’s always room for informed, engaged, passionate leaders at every level of government,” Bush told the graduates of Grove City College, an hour’s drive north of Pittsburgh, imploring them to work hard in whatever they choose.
Speaking on the 60th anniversary of Brown vs. Board of Education, Bush said progress has been made, but “not nearly enough,” citing an achievement gap between white students and minorities. He criticized a federal government that is “willingly violating” religious freedom and made the case for immigration reform as an economic engine.
He was relaxed, if a bit rushed in delivery, and mixed in humor about his mother who a year ago quipped that some other family should have a chance at the White House. “Since she’s in the advice-giving business these days — I don’t know if you’ve noticed — I asked her what I should speak about today. And she said, ‘Jeb, speak about 15 minutes and then sit down.’ “
This reaction was notable:
Mark Johnson, an engineer from Ohio whose daughter was among the 585 graduates, said as he listened to Bush, he thought, “I’d vote for this guy.” The Republican added, “And I was really turned off by his brother.”
Speculation has centered on another Bush-Clinton race in 2016, where Jeb would face Hillary Clinton. For one thing, Hillary Clinton can eagerly have Bill Clinton out on the hustings campaigning for her. Jeb is unlikely to get George W. Bush out there pitching his brother — and if he does, he might regret it in terms of votes from some voters of both parties.
But Bill Clinton is Hillary’s greatest asset and there is simply no denying it. If we can point out some downsides to their relationship, it all pales in comparison to Bill’s ability to compare his presidency to the two Bushs’ presidencies. His record may be flawed, but it trounces the records of the most recent Republicans presidents. The connections the Clintons have, the experience, and the good will they enjoy with a wide swath of non-Obama voters all add up to a massive advantage over any Democratic alternatives, and certainly over any prospective Republican candidates not named Jeb. And, frankly, Jeb is not only saddled with the records of his father and brother, but also lacks the same kind of cross-over appeal with non-Romney or non-McCain voters.
When you’ll know Jeb is serious and has a good chance: when Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and others start either blasting him or demanding he move further to the right.
And if Jeb Bush does move further to the right.
CORRECTION: The original post attributed this story to the Washington Post, which referred to this Tampa Bay Times report. The link to the quoted material came from the Tampa Bay Times and reporter Alex Leary. It’s the policy of TMV to correct all errors. We regret the error.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.