As it remains locked in mortal battle with the Republican Party establishment, a new Gallup Poll finds that the Tea Party’s support is down and opposition to it is growing. The poll also all but erases the talking point that the Tea Party represents both parties and people from several ideologies: it is clearly a conservative Republican movement.
The main reason for the drop in support: an erosion of support among GOPers.
About four in 10 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents classify themselves as supporters of the Tea Party, while 11% are opponents and 48% are neither. This continues to be a significant drop from the Tea Party’s high-water mark in November 2010, when 61% of Republicans were supporters of the Tea Party.
In the past three and a half years, levels of support and opposition for the Tea Party among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents have changed relatively little….
…The role of the Tea Party in the selection of Republican nominees for Senate and House seats this year continues to be a high-profile issue. The Tea Party was perceived as suffering a setback on Tuesday, when Thom Tillis, the candidate widely perceived as representing the GOP establishment in the North Carolina Republican Senate primary, soundly defeated Greg Brannon, who was positioned as the Tea Party’s choice. Tillis will now face incumbent North Carolina Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan in the fall general election.
The drop in support for the Tea Party among Republicans is mainly responsible for the drop in support among all Americans since November 2010, from 32% to today’s 22%. Support has fluctuated in the intervening time period, but has been remarkably steady at 22% in the last three Gallup polls conducted since September of 2013. The percentage of Americans who classify themselves as Tea Party opponents, however, has risen to 30%, tied with two measurements in 2010 as the highest in the history of tracking this question.
And:
The broad group of Republicans who are supporters of the Tea Party are remarkably similar to other Republicans across most demographic categories — including race and ethnicity, income, age, education, or region of country. Republican Tea Party supporters are somewhat more likely to be weekly church attenders and slightly more likely to be men.
This tidbit shows why Democrats have to get out the vote in the mid-terms:
Republicans in general are usually more tuned in to midterm elections than those who are not Republicans — but it is clear that within the broad group of those who identity with or lean toward the Republican party, Tea Party supporters are significantly more focused than other Republicans. Republican Tea Party supporters have given the election more thought, and also are significantly more likely to say they are more enthusiastic about voting, than either other Republicans or non-Republicans.
Gallup offers a great bottom line summary that notes the poll suggests the GOP may be inching towards a more moderate path:
The number of Tea Party supporters among Republicans has dropped by a third since November 2010, and opposition to the Tea Party in the general population has returned to its all-time high — suggesting that the Tea Party will have less potential to affect elections this year than was the case in the last midterm election in 2010.
Tea Party support, more than anything else, appears to substantially correlate with the more straightforward characteristics of being a core, conservative Republican. Thus, these trends may suggest that the GOP is on a more moderate track in general. Clearly Mitt Romney’s presidential nomination in 2012 was evidence of waning Tea Party support, and currently the Tea Party cannot even claim majority support of the GOP base, further hindering its influence to remake the party in its own image. The results of several high profile primary contests later this month will be important indicators of the reality of the Tea Party’s influence. Still, whatever else happens, Tea Party supporters will continue to be a presence in American politics because of their apparent motivation and interest in election outcomes.
Which means they go vote while Democrats deciding to teach their party a lesson or who are dispirited stay home.
And (good news for the Tea Party) guess what happens then?
featured/thumbnail graphic via shutterstock.com
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.