The Iraq Conundrum

Michael Crowley of the New Republic, has a good article about Senator Obama and his Iraq policy. You will want to read the whole thing, but in short he says that while Obama is talking about getting out of Iraq, it might be more likely to see a reduced presence in Iraq.

I think that no matter who gets into the Oval Office in 2009, Iraq is not going to be easy to deal with and will probably go against what the bases of the political parties want.

There has been a lot of talk that either Hillary Clinton or Obama will not get the troops out yesterday, but I there has not been talk about what McCain would do other than the errorneous “100 years” remark. This is only my guess, but I tend to think that even though McCain has talked a lot about staying in Iraq and fighting, I have to think that he will also be thinking about how to best get America out of Iraq. Why? Because if he wins, he will have to face the responsibility of leading a nation that is in an unpopular war, where the body count is rising and rising with no end in sight. McCain might be a Vietnam Veteran and a hawk, but I think in his heart of hearts, he knows when a losing proposition is a losing proposition. My guess is that he might bring in the United Nations through some kind of peace keeping force, or do a whole bunch of shuttle diplomacy to European captials to get them involved (and privately offering a bunch of mea culpas). There might be some spin to make it look like we are chaning the focus (remember “peace with honor,”) and the mission might change to one of containment- trying to keep the instability in Iraq from spreading or threatening nearby nations.

Of course, this is all speculation and I could be totally wrong. But like the Dems, who have to face that they can’t get out as easy nor as fast as they want to, McCain will have to realize that we can’t stay there forever, either.

The sticking point on both sides are the bases of both parties. Will antiwar Democrats give a President Clinton or Obama some wiggle room in how best to end the conflict? Will pro-war Republicans concede that there is a time when we have to drawn down troops and end the war and allow a President McCain to oversee a withdrawl of forces? Will any of the candidates be strong of enough to face down their bases?

Beyond all the soundbites of “out of Iraq” or “Victory in Iraq,” is the realities of governing. Iraq is not as easy as both sides want it to be. It was politics that got us into the mess of Iraq. Let’s hope politics will not be what drives us getting out.