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So What Will Happen In The Pennsylvania Primary?
6 Responses to “So What Will Happen In The Pennsylvania Primary?”
Y'all need to stop hyperventilating about it (typical liberal childishess; it is not surprising, but it is disappointing to irritating to your betters). Despite what starry-eyed dupes and extra-hateful lefties may insist, Clinton remains viable through Pennsylvania and all the way to the convention. The worst of the hatred and fringe left idiocy that is flung at her (actually a certified lefty like Obama; neither are in any way moderate or centrist), particularly because of anti-Iraq-War pathology and personal degeneracy, make those of us who have never liked her defend her.
If Pennsylvania is hers or in any way close, you have to get set for the remaining elections as well as the convention. [gasp] You may have actually to grow up! Horrors! Such an alien, outrageous notion.
I didn't put this post on tmv because I felt the writer was hyperventiliating or a left. I felt it was actually a post that the writer spent a lot of time on, standing back and giving us his take on it. Yes, the writer of the post supports Obama but this wasn't your typical name calling, angry, rage filled blog post but one that showed someone spent a lot of time looking into something and analyzing it. Political discussion in this country would not be hurt with standing back occasionally and just offering a take on an issue. I think we all improve things if we don't use words like wing nut, rightie, leftie and the Republicans who insist on calling the Democratic party the “democrat party” just seem immature (they use the phrase because they know Democrats don't like it). This was one of the best posts I have read on Pennsylvania. Now, it may prove to be totally wrong when the votes are counted. But this is a post any on the right, left or center would benefit from reading and copying its style.
[...] The Moderate Voice – Domestic and international news analysis, irreverent comments, original reporti… wrote an interesting post today on So What Will Happen In The Pennsylvania Primary?Here’s a quick excerptSo What Will Happen In The Pennsylvania Primary? April 20th, 2008 by JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief Here’s one interesting, stand-back analytical take on it. Category: Democratic Party, Primaries, Pennsylvania, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, 2008 Elections, Democrats, Politics | [...]
Not a bad analysis, but I think it betrays a lot of the wishful thinking that is prevalent among Obama supporters.
Whenever Dem voters have come to a crossroads decision on whether to end the process (and an Obama victory in PA will end the process much as it would have in TX, OH, or NH) the undecided voters break for Clinton. It is hard for me to see anything that has come out of the Obama camp over the last week, that would cause those undecideds to suddenly conclude that Obama is ready and Obama is the one.
If they are still undecided today, after a 4-1 media saturation overspend by Obama, after again pulling out all the stops with endorsements, exactly what – pray tell – is going to suddenly convince them that Obama should be the nominee between now and Tuesday? Booman is overthinking this to rationalize a result he is wishing for. Clinton is going in with 5 point lead, and the remaining undecided will break for her, as it did in neighboring Ohio, to give her an 8-10% win.
Well that was condescending, DLS.
Anyway, I think Clinton wins by around 10, mostly because of the undecideds in the T.
But that doesn't mean the money Obama spent was for naught. Without the spending Obama would have lost by much more. And the delegate hit would have been greater.
One thing we've learned in this primary is that demographics is destiny. To a large extent, these are censuses and not elections. It's only at the margins that either candidate is able to move opinion. And where that's happened, it's all gone in Obama's direction. In only four states did Obama not close the gap at all after campaigning began: AR, OK, FL and MI. What do they have in common? Obama didn't set foot there.
That is one hell of a lot money to spend on losing by 10 points. Will the same formula apply to general election? We didn't wast that money or nomination, we only lost the presidency by 3 points.