Obama Debate Fallout? Clinton Within Three Points In Gallup Tracking

It is often said that polls are snapshots — or see-saws and that trending matters. But the latest Gallup Tracking poll, coming within days of Senator Barack Obama’s widely-panned performance in his Pennsylvania primary debate with Senator Hillary Clinton is a sign that the debate hurt Obama in terms of imagery.

If this continues and is a sign of what’s to come in the Pennsylvania primary, Obama has problems:

Gallup Poll Daily tracking shows a tightening of the national Democratic race, with Barack Obama now holding just a 3-percentage point advantage over Hillary Clinton, 47% to 44%.

These results are based on interviewing conducted April 15-17, with Thursday night’s interviewing the first conducted following the April 16 debate in Philadelphia. The initial indications are that Obama may have been hurt by the debate, which was noted for its negative tone and focus on the candidates’ recent “gaffes” and Obama’s associations with the controversial Rev. Jeremiah Wright and William Ayers (a former member of the radical Weather Underground group).

In Thursday night’s interviewing, Clinton received a greater share of national Democratic support than Obama, the first time she has done so in an individual night’s interviewing since April 3. That stronger showing for Clinton helped to snap Obama’s streak of statistically significant leads in the three-day rolling averages Gallup reports each day. Until today, he had led Clinton by a statistically significant margin in each of the prior 11 Gallup releases.

The full impact of the debate — and the ensuing media coverage of it — will be apparent in the coming days, and it will soon be clear if the debate has produced a shift back to a more competitive race, or if Clinton may have received just a temporary boost in support. The next big event on the Democratic primary calendar is Tuesday’s Pennsylvania primary.

And what does this mean in terms of next week’s Pennsylvania primary? To show you that polls are all over the place, look at the latest Rasmussen Reports poll which shows Obama GAINING in Pennsylvania:

The Democratic Presidential Primary in Pennsylvania is getting even closer. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Hillary Clinton with 47% of the vote and Barack Obama with 44%. This election poll was conducted Thursday night, the night following a nationally televised debate between the candidates. Last Monday, Clinton was leading Obama 50% to 41%.

Obama’s support appears to be a bit softer than Clinton’s at this point in time. Six percent (6%) of Obama voters say there’s a good chance they could change their mind before voting. Only 2% of Clinton supporters say the same.

Overall, with less than a week to go, 9% of Pennsylvania voters remain undecided, 3% say there’s a good chance they will change their mind, and another 12% might change their mind. Among those who are certain how they will vote, Clinton leads 53% to 47%.
And the poll has bad news for Clinton:

Perhaps the worst news in the survey for Clinton has nothing to do with the race getting closer. Fifty-seven percent (57%) say that the Superdelegates should honor the results of the primaries even if “something happens to convince Superdelegates that Hillary Clinton would have a better chance of beating John McCain.” If Clinton is deemed more electable, just 33% believe that the Superdelegates should select her over Obama. Clinton’s only viable path to the nomination is to convince the Superdelegates that they should vote for her despite Obama’s edge among pledged delegates.

Does it sound like a mess? And, increasingly, you can just FEEL GOP presumptive nominee Senator John McCain smiling..