Polls: Obama’s Small-Town Bitter Comments Had Mixed Impact

New polls indicate the flap over Democratic Senator Barack Obama’s comments about people in small towns being bitter has had a mixed impact so far: one key poll has not changed, but another indicates his comments have undercut some of his general election support.

The first Gallup Daily tracking poll taken during the time when Obama has come under fire from rival Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton and Republicans over his comments shows the controversy has not hurt him…in that poll:

Gallup Poll Daily tracking for April 10-12 shows Barack Obama continuing to hold a solid lead over Hillary Clinton in national Democratic voters’ support for the presidential nomination, 50% to 41%.

Initial indications are that the controversial remarks has not yet hurt Obama — his 9-percentage point lead in the current results (based on March 10-12 polling) is right in line with the average 8.5-point lead he held in the prior six days’ tracking results. Also, his lead in the current results shows a slight improvement from his 7-point advantage in March 9-11 polling. As the story gains momentum in the press, the coming days’ tracking results will measure its ultimate impact.

The controversy comes just as Obama has established himself as the leader in Democratic voters’ preferences for the nomination, holding a statistically significant lead in each of the past seven days’ tracking results. Prior to that, he had only managed to hold a significant lead in as many as four consecutive days’ results, doing this in late March.

But Rasmussen Reports sees a loss in Obama support — among non-Democrats:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows John McCain leading Barack Obama, 50% to 42%. In a match-up with Hillary Clinton, the results are the same–McCain 49% Clinton 41%. McCain now leads both Democrats among unaffiliated voters. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time (see recent daily results). Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are given a 59.2 % chance of winning the White House this year.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Clinton has gained a statistically-insignificant one-point advantage over Obama, 46% to 45%. Obama led by a significant margin for most of the past week, but his advantage had declined slightly even before his controversial remarks from San Francisco made news (see recent daily results).

Rasmussen Reports is surveying voters this weekend for reaction to Obama’s remarks. Preliminary indications from interviews with 400 Likely Voters suggest that the comments are troublesome for Republicans and unaffiliated voters. However, there is less of an impact among Democrats. That tends to confirm the growing consensus that the comments may have more impact on the General Election than the Primaries.

Rasmussen also thinks Obama’s response has been politically astute:

The preliminary data also suggests that Obama was shrewd to try and focus attention on the portion of the comments about people being bitter. That part of the message is well received. The reference to guns, religion, and immigration that creates potential problems. Rasmussen Markets data still gives Obama an 81.5 % chance of winning the Democratic nomination.

Meanwhile, a Zogby poll indicates Obama’s comments couldn’t come at a worse time for him:

A poll taken before Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama was hammered for calling small-town voters “bitter” portends a close election in Pennsylvania.

The poll by Newsmax/Zogby indicates Obama and rival Hillary Clinton are neck-and-neck in the Keystone State, which holds its primary April 22, the USA Today On Politics blog reported Saturday.

The Newsmax/Zogby survey indicates Clinton leads Obama 47 percent to 43 percent. Since the New York senator’s lead is within the poll’s 3.2 percent margin of error, she and the Illinois senator are in a statistical dead heat.

WHAT THIS MEANS: Look for the debate between Clinton and Obama this week to be truly the most high-stakes debate of the season. There was speculation that chief Clinton strategist Mark Penn was ousted from his post Clinton would fall under the influence of advisers who wanted a more uplifting campaign. But Obama’s gaffe provided the Clinton camp with an opening and they have taken it and run with it.

This means Clinton will try to raise the issue again in the most damaging way for Obama — and Obama will likely have a response ready that could be expected to be not just a mea culpa or pro-forma defense, but something designed to short-circuit the Clinton attacks. Given the closeness of the race in Pennsylvania, the high stakes, and Clinton’s stated intention of battling all the way to the convention, this debate will be a must watch. More than ever, each side will be trying to score a knock out punch.

FOOTNOTE: The Obama comments flap hit on the weekend. Look for talk show radio and cable TV hosts to have a field day with them. Will the Obama campaign remain on the defensive or will it find a way to shift the focus of the news and media-discussion? Will the Clinton use of the issue go too far until it veers into politically counterproductive overreaching?