The Governor’s race in Virginia is being widely touted as THE race to watch in national terms because it appeared as if Democrat Terry McAuliffe was poised for a massive win over Tea Party Republican State Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli in Virginia, considered a “bellwether” state. But now a new Quinnipiac Poll suggests this race is far from over as it finds McAuliffe’s lead shrinking and a libertarian candidate starting to have some impact on the race. It’s one of the few polls that shows the race as close — so it interrupts the emerging media narrative on this race:
The Virginia governor’s race is going down to the wire with Democrat Terry McAuliffe clinging to a slight 45 – 41 percent likely voter lead over Republican State Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, and 9 percent for Libertarian Party candidate Robert Sarvis, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to the results of an October 23 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, showing McAuliffe up 46 – 39 percent, with Sarvis at 10 percent.
Other polls have shown McAuliffe with a whopping lead as the GOP is losing Virginia women voters in droves. But Quinnipiac usually has a good record and this poll is showing trending not good for McAuliffe. It has also been a campaign of symbolism: McAuliffe brought in his best bud former President Bill Clinton, and Cuccinelli brought in his best bud Sen. Rand Paul.
But note the role here of the libertarian candidate who threatens to do to Cuccinelli what Ross Perot did to George H.W. Bush:
Today’s survey shows that if Sarvis were not in the race, McAuliffe would have 47 percent to 45 percent for Cuccinelli, too close to call.
In the three-way matchup, 4 percent of likely voters remain undecided and 7 percent of those who name a candidate say there’s a “good chance” they will change their mind in the next six days.
McAuliffe leads 91 – 2 percent among Democrats, with 4 percent for Sarvis, while Cuccinelli leads 86 – 5 percent among Republicans, with 7 percent for Sarvis. Independent voters go to McAuliffe 46 – 31 percent, with 16 percent for Sarvis.
Women back the Democrat 50 – 37 percent, with 7 percent for Sarvis. Men go to Cuccinelli 45 – 39 percent with 11 percent for Sarvis.
“State Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli is nipping at Terry McAuliffe’s heels as the race to be Virginia’s next governor enters the final week of the campaign,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “It goes without saying that turnout is the key to this race and the harshly negative tone of the campaign is the kind that often turns off voters.”
“With the race this close, the final decision by the roughly one in 10 voters who are supporting Libertarian Robert Sarvis has become even more critical. Nationally, third-party candidates often lose support in the end as voters enter the voting booth and back someone they consider the lesser of two evils. Only six in 10 Sarvis supporters say they definitely will vote for him. Almost nine in 10 McAuliffe and Cuccinelli backers are committed.
“Cuccinelli seems to be benefitting from Republicans coming home, but McAuliffe still does a little better among Democrats than Cuccinelli does among GOPers. And, McAuliffe leads among independents, perhaps the key voting group. It is difficult to see Cuccinelli winning if he can’t run at least even or slightly ahead among independents. Here, too, Sarvis’ voters matter greatly since the libertarian is getting 16 percent of independents, but only 9 percent overall.”
The Daily Beast’s y Jamelle Bouie says Cuccinelli is making bad candidate history, an argument he makes quite well. Except if Cuccinelli wins next week it’ll negate all the pre-election analysis done about Virginia and send a more positive message to the GOP and Tea Partiers:
Ken Cuccinelli is losing, but his supporters don’t seem to know it. At least not yet. On Monday, around 200 people squeezed into a small banquet hall—located in his old state senate district—to kick off the last leg of the attorney general’s gubernatorial campaign. The crowd of supporters and former constituents was eager to see Cuccinelli, and his partner for the afternoon, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul. “I’ve known Ken for eleven years,” explained Audrey Dutton, a local Republican activist, “He is a man of his word and I trust him completely as a political figure.”
Neither Paul nor Cuccinelli offered anything new in their rhetoric—and the former seemed to be establishing his brand more than supporting his ally—but Cuccinelli seemed like he was having fun. He railed against Obamacare, emphasized the near-losses of his previous campaigns—“What do you call a state senate candidate who wins by a small margin? A senator!”—told jokes about his opponent, Terry McAuliffe, and used playful voices to encourage supporters to make phone calls or go door-to-door. Audience members loved it, and eventually, a game of call and response developed between Cuccinelli and the crowd. “Government is the problem,” Cuccinelli said, with the audience finishing the quote, “not the solution”
But again, Cuccinelli is losing. Badly. According to the latest survey from ABC News and the Washington Post, he’s trailing McAuliffe by twelve points, 51 percent to 39 percent. He’s losing women by 24 points, barely winning men, and sinking in almost every region of the state, from the Richmond metropolitan area and its old Virginia suburbs, to the military hub of Hampton Roads, to the fast-growing communities of Northern Virginia. The only place where Cuccinelli has any sort of an advantage is in the southwest of the state, where Democrats have always struggled.
The poll means the final outcome is not as predictable as it seemed just 48 hours ago.
Overall, however, Cuccinelli is poised to lose by a larger margin than any Republican gubernatorial candidate since 1985, and his running mate—lieutenant governor candidate E.W. Jackson—is on path for a more explosive crash. Mark Obenshain, the GOP pick for attorney general, is the only one of these men who might survive election night with a political career, but even that’s in doubt—the Post has Obenshain behind his Democratic opponent, Mark Herring, by 3 points.
Ideological extremism has a place in Cuccinelli’s abrupt collapse (his strident opposition to abortion has won him few favors in mainstream Virginia politics), as does the government shutdown and the attorney general’s failed attempt to distance himself from the Tea Party he championed just a few years ago. But the electoral salience of all of this has everything to do with the demographic changes that transformed the commonwealth in the previous two presidential elections, and—at the moment—hang over the future of the entire Republican Party, not just the one in Virginia.
If Cuccinelli goes down to a big defeat, there will be consquences in Virginia and perhaps nationally, he points out:
. Terry McAuliffe is about to become governor of Virginia, while Ken Cuccinelli will soon leave politics as one of the least successful gubernatorial candidates in recent Republican history. And as for the Virginia GOP as an institution? Be prepared for an open civil war, as the establishment tries to win its party back from an extreme, uncompromising base.
It’s not clear what lessons the national parties can draw from this, but my hope is that moderate Virginia Republicans find some success. If at least one chunk of the GOP can stop the Tea Party from crashing its brand into the sea, then—maybe—it’s possible for others to do the same and help return Republican Party sanity, if not competence.
And a Cuccinelli defeat would have another factor for GOPers to consider: a long-range threat to GOP victories unless it seriously pleases the party’s libertarian segment. The Week’s Keith Wagstaff:
Libertarians, known for their opposition to all manner of government intervention, tend to be lumped in with the Republican Party. A new report on libertarianism in America, however, finds a group that “doesn’t fit on the traditional liberal-to-conservative spectrum.”
Libertarians — who account for about 10 percent of the population — are not a particularly diverse group. The survey, conducted by the Public Religion Research Institute, found that they are almost all white (94 percent) and mostly male (68 percent), with an average age of 44 — three years younger than your average Tea Partier.
But those young, white males have a variety of political allegiances, with less than half of them identifying as Republican.
Those independent libertarians usually swing right in elections, meaning the GOP can usually count on their support. But at least one ongoing campaign shows that the libertarian wing of the party may be chafing at the dominance of the mother ship.
Enter Robert Sarvis, a member of the Libertarian Party, who is currently pulling in eight percent of the vote in the Virginia governor’s race. Those are voters who, for the most part, would otherwise be voting for Republican candidate Ken Cuccinelli, who is currently trailing former Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe by 12 points.
And in the Great Minds Think Alike Department:
Yes, that’s right: It would appear that Republicans in Virginia are undergoing what Democrats know as the Nader effect, with Sarvis playing the spoiler role that the Green Party’s Ralph Nader played in the 2000 presidential race, much to Al Gore’s chagrin.
Granted, that gap in the polls can’t be entirely attributed to the rise of libertarianism. Cuccinelli is considered by many to be a uniquely awful candidate. Furthermore, the GOP as a party is still struggling to repair its image following the debacle of the government shutdown.
Still, there are signs that this surge of support for Sarvis centers around social issues, seeing as Cuccinelli’s economic views are solidly libertarian. He is fiercely opposed to ObamaCare, and has campaigned on a pledge to cut the state income tax by 15 percent.
His conclusion:
In other words, the GOP may want to consider toning down its rhetoric on social issues for more than the oft-cited reason of appealing to moderates. A shift may be necessary to keep its already dwindling voting bloc together.
Read his piece in its entirety.
The Washington Post’s conservative columnist Kathleen Parker, looking at the earlier polls, says the numbers in Virginia is delivering a clear message to GOPers:
It isn’t over yet, but a bookie today would predict a Terry McAuliffe victory in the Virginia governor’s election next week.
Washington Post polling shows the Democratic businessman and fundraiser with a double-digit lead (51 percent to 39 percent) over Republican Ken Cuccinelli II following a campaign ad blitz that shredded the sitting attorney general over his conservative views. It’s not that voters love McAuliffe. They just don’t like Cuccinelli — and they really don’t like the Republican Party.
Partly, this is Cuccinelli’s fault. His conservative views on same-sex marriage and abortion do not resonate with many voters, especially women. He also suffered some collateral damage from Gov. Bob McDonnell’s questionable practices in accepting gifts and cash donations for personal use.
But mostly, the polls suggest that general distaste for the GOP and the Republican role in shutting down the government has doomed Cuccinelli at a time when he ought to be celebrating his insight in leading the legal challenge to the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Fifty-five percent said the shutdown is very important to their vote.
For this, Republicans can thank their tea party constituents in the House of Representatives and the singular Ted Cruz in the Senate — the latter’s Texas ovation and Iowa stampede notwithstanding. These were the actors who forced the shutdown and who, should Republicans begin losing gubernatorial and congressional races, would be the major reason. Disgust trickles down, over and out.
She details the significance of what a big GOP loss in Virginia in this race would mean, then the wild cards that could hold back the Democrats profiting politically from a GOP loss, and concludes:
So it isn’t over yet, in Virginia or elsewhere, but Republicans have little time to regain the trust and confidence of the non-ideological centrist majority. It’s time to dump the tea party in the Potomac.
Note here again: there I-S a centrist majority in Virginia as elsewhere. Its efficacy depends on whether it votes or just holds its nose and avoids voting on election day.
The National Journal’s “Hotline” email update has this comment on the latest poll:
Don’t be fooled into thinking that Quinnipiac’s Virginia poll is “newer” because it was released 36 hours after this week’s Washington Post poll. The polls were basically conducted concurrently, with the Q poll in the field for three days longer (two at the beginning, one at the end) than the WaPo survey. Overall, the Q poll portrays an electorate far more Republican (R+2) than the Post poll (D+8). The voters who made it through Quinnipiac’s likely-voter screen look more like past off-year elections in Virginia, but that isn’t consistent with other polls thus far in this campaign.
So depending on which suits your political preference (as this is usually done), choose the poll you say is valid, and ignore the other ones.
But the bottom line is this: it ain’t over till it’s over — and, no Virginia, it ain’t over in Virginia.
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Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.