Poll: Obama? Clinton? Texas Is McCain Country (To A Point)

While Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton fight tooth and nail to win the Texas primary, a new CNN poll underscores a fact: as of today, Texas is John McCain country — to a certain point:

Texans appear poised to favor Republican front-runner Sen. John McCain over either of the Democratic candidates for president in the general election, a CNN/Opinion Research Poll released Thursday shows.

Assuming McCain is the Republican presidential nominee, 52 percent of poll respondents said they would vote for him, compared with 44 percent for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, the current Democratic front-runner.

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton fares slightly worse, with 42 percent, compared with 55 percent for McCain.

CNN’s polling director Keating Holland notes that these results aren’t a surprise, since Texas is a “red state.” But the poll also shows that if there’s a third party CONSERVATIVE candidate, that candidate would get 19 percent of Texan’s votes. If Clinton is the Demmie nominee, 23 percent would go for the third-party candidate, 37 percent for McCain and 28 percent for Clinton, the poll says.

That may be a “what if” scenario that doesn’t materialize since McCain is making pro-active efforts to woo his party’s reluctant conservatives, there is no sign yet of a serious third party conservative candidate on the horizon, and the GOP establishment is quickly getting behind him.

And — speaking of the GOP establishment — a certain Texan who epitomizes the establishment is not beloved by the bulk of Texans these days:

Texas may be President Bush’s home state, but a majority of poll respondents — 55 percent — said they disapprove of the job he is doing, giving Bush only a 41 percent approval rating. And 61 percent of Texans said they oppose the war in Iraq. Meanwhile, 62 percent said they believe the U.S. economy is in a recession.

However, a conservative third-party candidate could skew the results — and spell trouble for McCain, according to polling results. In that scenario, 19 percent of Texas poll respondents said they would vote for the third-party candidate