Around The Campaign 2008 Sphere

NOTE: This is a special SUPER TUESDAY edition of our famous Around The Sphere link-fest where we offer readers links to weblogs of differing viewpoints and give you our comments on the issues raised. Links do not necessarily represent the viewpoint of TMV or its co-writers.

A MUST READ TODAY of all days. Political scientist Steven Taylor’s Toast-O-Meter. Who’s baking nicely…and who looks like toast?

Is Obamania An Unrealistic Dream To Many? One of TMV’s favorites, Stephen Green aka Vodkapundit, takes a concise but clinical and perceptive look at the realities as to whether Barack Obama could wind up his party’s nominee after today’s’ vote and here is his bottom line:

If Clinton leads by fewer than 100 delegates after all the votes are counted tomorrow, then the Denver convention could very well be brokered. Or Obamania could mean that Obama is ahead by some small number on Wednesday morning. In which case, the nomination is his.

Now those are some tears Hillary would never shed in public.

Here where I WILL be a wishy-washy moderate: I would never make a prediction on this race. But I WOULD say this about California: there seems a lot of excitement about Obama here, particularly among independents. Independent voters love Arnold Schwarzenegger (who endorsed McCain) and his wife Maria…who endorsed Obama. BUT independent voters cannot vote in the Republican primary — and many Republicans here do not feel Arnold Schwarzenegger is “pure” enough for them. So it’s not impossible that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney could do well here…as could Obama.

At A Recent Event Arizona Senator John McCain Left The Audience Laughing but this time not with his serious speeches….He was injecting some humor into his political act. And The Garlic has some additional suggestions for him HERE.

Speaking of John McCain Dick Polman, a columnist and political blogger who is REQUIRED READING wonders whether McCain thinks “denial” is a river:

John McCain may well become the GOP’s putative nominee after the smoke clears on Feb. 5, but he’s still anathema to many conservative soldiers. I was reminded of this last night, after suggesting in a Sunday print column that the anti-McCain forces, by refusing to embrace him and threatening to sit out the election, might wind up undercutting the only electable Republican.

The emails were scalding, and I almost had to call the fire department…I’ll spare you the numerous personal attacks on McCain; apparently, it still bugs some conservatives that he ended his first marriage and wedded a rich young woman nearly 30 years ago. Suffice it to say that, if he’s the nominee, his prospects in November are nil if he can’t galvanize the conservative base. If George W. Bush had failed in that task back in November 2004, he would have been a one-term president.

The problem is, McCain keeps acting as if he doesn’t have a problem. Yesterday, on Fox News Sunday, he said this: “We’re doing fine with conservatives…In Florida, we got, as you know, a majority of the Republican voters in a Republican-only primary.”

That’s a fresh twist on his favorite falsehood. A couple weeks ago, he was publicly insisting that he had won a majority of Republican voters in the open primaries of New Hampshire and South Carolina, whereas, in truth, he hadn’t even won a plurality of the Republican voters in either contest. Now comes his claim about the Florida primary – and, again, he was not being accurate.

Polman is CORRECT: Yesterday I drove 440 miles from Salinas, CA to San Diego. I listened to at least five conservative talk shows, local and national. ALL OF THEM were virtual extended commercials for Mitt Romney – with the hosts sneering, snarling, cajoling viewers, going on about how “liberal” McCain is, how he will destroy the Republican Party. Romney was on at least two of these shows yesterday and the male and female hosts urged and in some cases almost ordered their listeners to vote for Romney.

McCain’s biggest sins: (1) He is a MODERATE not a conservative and therefore cannot be the party’s nominee (2) He works with Democrats (3) He has opposed torture, (4) He has not gone along with George Bush and Republicans on some other issues.

McCain has a big, fat problem (and that is not a specific reference to Rush Limbaugh). But so does the Republican Party because it has a key segment that clearly seeks an exclusionary party — one that considers moderates and independent voters the enemy and unwelcome. And he who works with them AND Democrats is the enemy. Talk radio yesterday truly did seem like the overused cliché term “hate radio” because it seemed nonstop and was acutely personal — even though many of these hosts insisted it was not (if you believe that, then I can sell you THIS for $200). McCain’s wife Cindy was also dragged into the the debate. Issue, schmissues…as long as it can discredit McCain who cares if we make an issue of his wife?

The only exception to this was Fox’s John Gibson who doggedly defended McCain and grilled listeners on how McCain differed from Romney (or, rather, the latest incarnation of Romney). THE IRONY: months ago these same hosts and these same listeners mercilessly blasted Romney for being insincere, a flip-flopper and a person with a history of being a liberal. But McCain hatred has led to Romney love. The enemy of my enemy is my friend..

Bottom line: McCain has a lot of fence-mending to do…his fences on the right. Poligazette has some more thoughts on the McCain/Conservatives war.

An Example Of A Romney Supporter Who Isn’t On An Anti-McCain Jihad is blogger Doug Williams, who will caucus in Minnesota today and supports Romney. His post which MUST be read in full says among other things:

I frankly don’t buy into the all-too-convenient Road-to-Damascus conversion to the popular conservative side on matters of pro-life, gay marriage, or the rest of his crib-note Ronald Reagan act. Frankly, that’s politics. It is what it is, and he’s not the only one playing that game. However Romney seems to offer a record of someone who does not claim to always have the right answer. But he can lead, he can adapt, and he can attack all sorts of unexpected problems no matter how new they are to him and succeed.

I don’t know if the next presidency is going to have to focus more on Iraq, a recession, or a global energy crisis. With President Romney, I feel like I’m picking a leader adaptable enough to handle most anything. John McCain is excellent at what he’s good at, and rather clumsy at what he’s not. And he’s frequently too stubborn to change course in the latter case.

Now, that being said, I rather expect John McCain to win the nomination in the end. Some of you may recall that I read the tea-leaves just before Iowa and was rather startled to draw that conclusion. But if anything, luck has fallen even more in his direction than I expected when I predicted he would win back then. And, let me add, I think in many ways he would make an excellent president. None arrive without flaws, and more often than not a president displays qualities in office that weren’t even part of the discussion when they campaigned. That could break either way, and in the case of both Romney and McCain I’m optimistic.

No demonization. No attacking McCain’s wife. No accusations that — GASP! — McCain has the support of MODERATES. No charge that he will — hide the kids — work with Democrats. He actually makes a case for Romney.

Many Bloggers Are Telling Readers How They Vote Or Would Vote and endorsing candidates and Tom Watson is going for Hillary Clinton. Ron Beasley had leaned towards Hillary but has changed his mind.

Contrary to how “blogtopia” (and HE invented this word) works, yours-truly doesn’t endorse or urge readers to vote one way or another. Nor do I feel it is really anyone’s business how I finally vote unless I decide to mention it since my votes are often all over the place. My personal voting process is different than most, and I can change my vote up to the second before ballot casting. I can agree with a candidate on issues but not vote for that candidate due to other factors. This is how I’ve voted in each election. Daniel Weintraub interviewed me for his excellent new book on Arnold Schwarzenegger and the rise of the independent voter and he basically calls me a quintessential California Arnold Schwarzenegger independent, while two prominent bloggers have told me I’m a Teddy Roosevelt Progressive. And readers of TMV have called me many things.

What Would A McCain Nomination Mean To The Republican Party? Be SURE to read Rick Moran who is one of the best conservative bloggers on the Internet (whose stuff would also be great on newspaper op-ed pages, if newspaper editors were wise enough to pluck talent from blogtopia…and you know who invented that word…)

To Hillary Or Not To Hillary That Is The Question: Michael Linn Jones has an excellent post on The Gun Toting Liberal (a high-caliber blog) that needs to be read IN FULL that steps back and tries to put the parties’ choices into historical perspective. Here is one quote:

Sen. McCain I’ll look at more carefully in the future. As for the choice between Sen. Obama and Sen. Clinton it’s almost a toss-up. I have greater hope for Obama than Clinton. Yet all the same I’ve changed my mind about moving to Canada if Hillary Clinton moves into the White House.

Sen. Clinton’s biggest failing is this: she has not developed her own identity. That is why Bill is a burden. For if she becomes the nominee….if she becomes the president, then it must be made clear that a Clinton II administration is politically divorced from her husband’s.

If the odds favor a Democrat being our next president, then I would warn both Sen. Obama and Sen. Clinton of one thing:

Our best presidents made major decisions with an eye on history itself. It’s a much better guidepost than polls or pundits. We, as individuals, come and go. The republic itself is sustained by wise decisions.

We’ve had enough bad ones lately.

The boldface is mine. Hillary Clinton has grown as a candidate but she has NOT run as an independent woman as California’s Senators Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer have. Nor as India’s Indira Gandhi (who was no relation to Mahatma) did, even though Indira’s dad had been P.M. of India. Or as Margaret Thatcher did in England. It HAS been about Bill — and he has become a turn-off to some people. And polls confirm that.

More Evidence Of The Same via Ezra Klein:

On the one hand, I can’t, and won’t, generalize out from such a small sample size. On the other, it seems weird not to mention this. In the past week or two, I’ve had three Hillary Clinton supporters in California tell me they’re changing their vote. Reasons ranged from distaste at Bill Clinton’s involvement in the campaign to a feeling that voting for Hillary would make them feel like “a curmudgeon.” I don’t know of anyone switching in the other direction.

I hate to use the word but: “Ditto.”

A Change Is Coming is a pro-Hillary video by The Democratic Daily’s Pamela Leavey and you can WATCH IT HERE.

Latinos Versus Blacks: A real issue in the election equation or not? Read WIMN’s Voices.

Hedges Aren’t Only Plants: Just read Josh Marshall’s post here and you need a gardener

EVEN THE PSYCHICS ARE MUM: A year or two ago you could find a lot of websites with psychics predicting political news. You still find some (Hillary has long been predicted as the next President) but the numbers have greatly diminished. Perhaps the market has fallen out on political psychics..or perhaps they feel the heat from the smug talking heads on cable TV shows who talk like they know what’s coming up but in the end this year have wound up with more egg on their faces than a two year old having breakfast at Denny’s.

My Final Message On Election Day: Think about the issues, search your heart, and vote with your mind, heart..and gut. IGNORE the spin from talk show hosts, bloggers with political axes to grind on all sides, celebrities, TV stars. Think about YOUR values and vote YOUR values. If you do that and cast YOUR vote YOUR way it’s a solid vote…no matter who you vote for.