Poll: Giuliani Coming In Distant Third In Florida

Unless something changes, New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s campaign will be mentioned in political science classes and by political consultants for years to come — as the way not to do it. A new poll shows him coming in third — and not a close third — in the upcoming Florida primary:

A new St. Petersburg Times poll shows the former Massachusetts governor and Arizona senator neck and neck among Florida Republicans, while Rudy Giuliani’s Florida-or-bust strategy has been a bust.

Among Florida voters likely to vote in Tuesday’s primary, 25 percent are backing McCain and 23 percent Romney, a statistical tie, while Giuliani and Mike Huckabee were tied for third place with 15 percent each.

In Florida’s odd candidate-free, campaign-free Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton is trouncing Barack Obama by 19 percentage points in a race with stark racial divisions. The poll found 42 percent backing Clinton, 23 percent supporting Obama and 12 percent former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.

But it’s the volatile GOP race the nation is mainly watching, as Florida Republicans stand to have a huge influence over which candidates have a shot at competing as nearly two dozen states vote on Feb. 5. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani staked his candidacy on Florida, and even with 27 percent of Florida Republicans saying they might change their minds, it looks like a bad gamble.

“Giuliani’s decision to pull out of the early states is going to go down in history if he finishes out of the money in Florida as one of the worst political decisions,” said pollster Tom Eldon.

This poll was taken before actor and former Senator Fred Thompson pulled out of the race.

See our previous post on Giuliani’s diminishing political fortunes and why it has gotten to such a point.

Writes Marc Ambinder:

Did I mention: Schroth and his partner Tom Eldon are generally considered the best of the non-partisan political pollsters in the state. (Mason Dixons’ folks are a close second — or maybe tied — heck, I’m a humanist — they’re all the best.)

Meanwhile, The Politico’s Ben Alder points out that at this point Rep. Ron Paul, often dismissed by the media as a candidate who is realistically not in the race, “has won nearly twice as many total votes to date as Rudy Giuliani, a candidate still widely viewed as a strong contender.”

The media perceptions will start to change rather rapidly now in the weeks heading up to Florida. Unless Giuliani’s numbers start to go up, the narrative heading into the race will be how Giuliani likely blew it.

In short: there will be (if there is not already) a political death watch on his campaign. And us former newspaper types know that most papers already have the “boilerplate” background and basic analytical stuff written and saved in their computers, so they can just top off the story on election night.

But then…this has been an election year of surprises, hasn’t it?? (Journalist hedge added for future credibility…)?