Obama and Clinton Would Face Tough Decision on Running Mates, Part 1

Should either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton secure the presidential nomination of the Democratic Party, each would face an important challenge in the selection of a vice presidential running mate. The stakes would be high in either scenario.

Clinton would need to make a choice that gains something like positive acclimation from the 45 to 48% of the electorate who say they will not vote for her under any circumstances. A few percentage points-worth of voters from this category might be all Clinton needs to score a razor-thin victory in a general election.

The operative word for Clinton in selecting a running mate would be imagination. She may have to think outside the box, choosing a vice presidential candidate that will run against the widespread picture of her as cunning and savage. At the same time, Clinton, who has worked hard during her brief tenure in the United States Senate to develop a relationship with the military, will have to choose someone with strong national security credentials. After all, this is the First Lady who, according to many reports, treated military people with contempt when her husband first became president.

An obvious choice for Clinton would be retired General Wesley Clark, who has been campaigning hard for her. But the fact that Clark has been a Clinton partisan this election year may be a strike against him. He’s too obvious a choice, one that would seem like a payoff.

The problem, of course, is that, rightly or wrongly, few Democrats have the national security cache that Clinton may need in a running mate. Hence, imagination will be important. Clinton may have to reach beyond the Democratic Party, as 2004 nominee John Kerry attempted to do when he asked Republican John McCain to be his running mate. McCain will be unavailable to Clinton in 2008, as he’s likely to hold either the number 1 or 2 place on the Republican ticket. Expect Clinton then, to press Colin Powell to come out of retirement to be her vice presidential candidate.

The attraction of Powell for Clinton is obvious. Given her recent gaffe over Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. and race, she will likely want a high profile African-American on her ticket. From a Democratic perspective, at least within the counsels of the White House, Powell was “right” on the war in Iraq, even though the former secretary of State argued forcefully in favor of war at the United Nations. His military credentials are unimpeachable: service in Vietnam, national security adviser to the President, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff who oversaw victory in Iraq in 1991, and author of the Powell Doctrine.

But Powell might also be attracted to being on a Democratic ticket. He has always adhered to a few political positions outside of the mainstream of conservative Republican orthodoxy–he favors affirmative action in hiring and he can’t really be described as “pro-life,” for example. In addition, service as vice president, helping with the gradual withdrawal of US forces from Iraq under a Democratic president may, in some sense, feel like vindication to Powell.

Of course, age may work against Powell. He turns 71 in April. But that makes him roughly the same age as John McCain and after all, seventy is the new forty, something for which this 54-year old is exceedingly grateful. In the end, however, I don’t think that Powell would accept a place on the Democratic ticket, which will present Clinton with huge problems should she be the nominee for president.

I’ll deal with the importance of Barack Obama’s running mate deliberations in a later post.

I fully expect Obama to be the Democratic nominee. So, in a way, that post will deal with a far more critical topic.

[You may also want to check out my scintillating personal blog, Better Living: Thoughts from Mark Daniels.]