Now What?

My prediction perfection in Iowa ended in New Hampshire. It was nice while it lasted, comparable I assume (on a much smaller scale) to the sensation of being ranked #1 in the just-concluded college football season. On the bright side — if misery does, in fact, love company — I am blessed this morning with many confused and humbled “friends.”

And like those friends, my picks in the R column were much better than my picks in the D column. After each name below, I list the percentage of votes I predicted (in parentheses), followed by the percentage received (in bold, rounded to the nearest whole number).

REPUBLICANS

McCain (34%) 37%

Romney (29%) 32%

Huckabee (13%) 11%

DEMOCRATS

Clinton (30%) 39%

Obama (39%) 36%

Edwards (18%) 17%

I take some comfort in the fact that I was at or inside the standard 3-point margin of error on every pick except the “Comeback Gal,” Senator Clinton, who went from burnt toast to toast of the town overnight.

It has been suggested that the swing factor was either the female vote or the Independent vote … or perhaps it was a little of both.

Since I’m not a woman, I’ll refrain from commenting on that aspect of the race and focus instead on the Independents.

Though I lean Republican, I am a decidedly moderate, independent-minded Republican (a.k.a., an IRV). And as a moderate IRV, I confess, Dr. Paul intrigued me once upon a time. But his borderline insanity on the Federal Reserve, his free-trade conspiracy theories, and those resurgent accusations of racism, finally convinced me that this Libertarian-in-Republican-clothes was simply the wrong pick, regardless of the hype surrounding him. That left McCain as the only viable choice, for me, on the R slate.

It seems a number of other I’s and IRV’s in N.H. felt the same way. In fact, they apparently felt so strongly about McCain, they boosted him to Obama’s disadvantage.

Problem: As an IRV, I’d love to have the choice, in the general election, between Obama and McCain, because I’m convinced they are the strongest, most-promising candidates in both parties — and it’d be nice, for once in my life, to have the opportunity to vote for the greater of two goods rather than the lesser of two evils.

Net: In Missouri, where I live and vote, and where — last I checked — you have to declare a party before you can vote in the primaries, I’m thinking about temporarily switching party affiliation, just so I can vote on Feb. 5 for Obama. Of course, that move depends on how the next few primaries go, and where McCain and Obama stand headed into Tsunami Tuesday. If McCain has the R nomination all but wrapped up, I’d switch parties and vote the O-man. Likewise, if Obama has the D nom all but wrapped up, I’d stay put and vote for Johnny Mac.

Then again, I suspect this same (or similar) line of thinking is what compromised the NH results.

Scenario: NH Indies (reading the pre-vote press and polls) assumed nothing could stop the Obama train, but McCain needed a little extra boost, a little extra coal in the engine. Accordingly, they switched to shore up the perceived weaker of the two. And … well, you know the result.

So now what? What’s a post-New Hampshire Indie or IRV (or IDV) to do?

Answer: What we’ve always done. Vote our conscience, not the party line, not the conventional wisdom, and let the chips fall where they may.