Poll: McCain Greatly Widens Election 2008 Lead Over Clinton
A new Rasmussen poll provides double-barreled good news for Republican Senator John McCain: it shows him greatly widening his lead over Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton if the two face each other in Election 2008 — and that McCain is widely perceived as a centrist to the right of Clinton.
With a recent poll indicating Clinton may in fact be poised to win the Iowa caucuses by a healthy margin, this could be good news to some segments of the GOP. On the other hand, the fact that McCain is perceived as more moderate and not sufficiently conservative has been one of his longtime obstacles in getting the GOP nomination. Rasmussen on the new poll:
With the first primary contests less than two weeks away, Senator John McCain has gained a six-point lead over Senator Hillary Clinton in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey.
A month ago, McCain had a two-point edge over the former First Lady. However, before that, Clinton edged out McCain by at least a point or two in six consecutive surveys of the match-up (see trend history).
So McCain’s trending in this poll is good. But GOPers who are looking for electability in a candidate might raise their eyebrows at another part of the poll: Clinton would beat Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee 47% to 43% and she has consistently led him in polling.
Another good piece of news for McCain: according to Rasmussen, the Arizona Senator is viewed more favorably now than any other candidate running for President in either party.
That’s the most positive rating of any Presidential candidate in either party (see ratings and other key stats for all Republican and Democratic candidates). McCain also has the lowest level of core opposition among the leading candidates—just 33% of voters say they will definitely vote against him if he is on the ballot.
As noted in a recent analysis, it’s a good time to be John McCain, He has increased his support in Iowa and is within a few points of the lead in New Hampshire.
Meanwhile, polls continue to show that Clinton ignites the largest amount of opposition among voters:
Clinton has the highest level of core opposition—47% say they will definitely vote against her if she wins the nomination. She is viewed favorably by 45%. The Senator from New York continues to lead all Democrats nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. However, the race for the Democratic nomination is very close in the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
McCain’s problem is the same one he faced in 2000. Many voters seem receptive to him and not ready to totally write him off if they disagree with one of his positions — which does happen since he still doesn’t fit into a cookie-cutter definition as a candidate. Since his defeat for the nomination in 2000, he has gone back to most groups that opposed him then to try and win them over — with limited success and a political cost (he has lost a chunk of the independent voters who once supported him).
But, according to this poll, he seems to have re-cemented his status as someone who is viewed as smack dab in the middle of America’s political center:
McCain is viewed as politically conservative by 31% of voters and moderate by 45%. That positions him near the nation’s political center.
Huckabee is seen as being to the right of McCain—43% say the former Arkansas Governor is politically conservative and just 24% see him as moderate.
Clinton is viewed to the left of McCain—54% see her as politically liberal while 31% see her as moderate.
But now he must navigate though the GOP primaries, where candidates need to run to the right. Yet, at the same time, he must appeal to many GOPers who look around the field this year and don’t like most of what they see — and do it during a year when conservatives want to see a conservative candidate who looks, walks, talks and VOTES the walk.
Poll numbers such as this increase his status as a highly-viable Anti-Hillary Candidate. And you can see his ascent in some of the recent stories and opinion pieces and posts:
–The Mac is back’: McCain enjoys poll surge
– McCain Gets the Gift, Romney Gets the Coal
–Giuliani Says McCain Would Be a Good Adviser
–Team Romney’s ‘Worried’ About Iowa? And ‘Petrified’ of McCain?
–Obama Takes Lead In NH As McCain Keeps Surging
The electorates in both parties are both still “shopping” so all predictions and analyses (including this one) could be outdated quickly.
But, in McCain’s case, he has a secret weapon few of the candidates do: the camera seems to love him.
Even on his worst off day on Meet the Press, or a day when cameras roll as he shows he is irked by reporters’ questions, it communicates a pizazz and charisma. This is a HUGE skill in 21st-Century political campaigns.
Moreover, he has also shown that he can get in media forums where he can be seen by younger voters or those perhaps not as inclined to support him on all issues — and be relaxed and have fun.
We again point you to his appearances on Saturday Night Live several years ago when McCain showed that. if he left politics. he genuinely could have a second career as a character actor or comedy sketch performer.
First, he sings Barbara Streisand:
Next: Here’s part of a wig-wearing McCain as John Ashcroft in a Hardball spoof:
4 Responses to “Poll: McCain Greatly Widens Election 2008 Lead Over Clinton”
And McCain trails Edwards by 7 points. Will John Edwards use that argument now? McCain leads Obama by 2, which is less than his lead over Clinton. So Obama and McCain are neck and neck. Both Obama and Edwards are more electable against McCain than Clinton.
But, funny enough, many polls seem to show the opposite: that Clinton is the one who performs strongest against McCain (or any Republican) than Edwards or Obama.
I think the biggest sticking point for GOP primary voters with McCain is immigration. No issue angers Republicans more than illegal immigration and McCain is on the exactly wrong side on this issue. New Hampshire voters might be less bothered by illegal immigration than other states. It’ll be interesting to see if McCain can overcome hatred of him by many on the Right. If he can, he will be a formidable candidate in the general election (even if he has little money).
And then there’s the question that has no answer at this point. Can McCain’s appearance of moderation survive a general election? Could it survive a Democratic candidate running ads about his voting record? Would it survive ads pointing out that he’s backed Bush’s Iraq War almost 100%? I can just picture the footage of him in the Baghdad market now.
I don’t see how Mr. Keating’s Special Friend could have any appeal to a non-liberal voter. If the GOP implodes next year, then perhaps he’ll be either the VP choice or the Presidential choice with another in the field like Giuliani (yuck) or Huckabee as VP. (Huckabee-McCain would be prefereable, muzzling the correct member of the pair.)
McCain, an oft Dem Lite (and differing with the Dems to the typical less-informed voter only on the matter of the Iraq war and the R stamp on his forehead) or someone deliberately antagonizing hs own party for his self-gratification, is hardly the person to offer as an alternative to Clinton or Obama.
When I was on the phone to my radical friend yesterday I advised her once again not to become over-confident, but I conceded it looks nearly impossible at this time not to be (for a Dem victory in many elections, not just for the White House).
McCain-Lieberman would expose the rabies in the left half of the American electorate.