Poll: Giuliani Loses National Lead In Republican Presidential Nomination Race

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani may be campaigning feverishly and systematically throughout the country but a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll has him tumbling so far down so fast that if the trending continues his candidacy will be in serious trouble.

For months the feisty former New York Mayor had seemingly defied earlier predictions that his candidacy would never fly with most traditional rank-and-file Republicans. He stayed ahead in the polls. But, now, he finds himself tied with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney — suggesting that the Republican nomination race is up for grabs more than ever:

Two weeks before the Iowa caucus, the race for president, while tightening among Democrats, is wide open on the Republican side, highlighting the unusual fluidity of the first campaign for the White House in over a half- century that doesn’t include an incumbent president or vice president.

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows that Rudy Giuliani has lost his national lead in the Republican field after a flurry of negative publicity about his personal and business activities, setting the stage for what could be the party’s most competitive nomination fight in decades.

This is yet another sign that the “vetting process” that candidates undergo once they are on a national stage and subject to media and op-research scrutiny can alter the conventional political wisdom. Is “Rudy” damaged goods? The numbers don’t look good for him — if these trends continue:

Two weeks before the Iowa caucus, the race for president, while tightening among Democrats, is wide open on the Republican side, highlighting the unusual fluidity of the first campaign for the White House in over a half- century that doesn’t include an incumbent president or vice president.

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows that Rudy Giuliani has lost his national lead in the Republican field after a flurry of negative publicity about his personal and business activities, setting the stage for what could be the party’s most competitive nomination fight in decades.

Meanwhile, the Democratic race continues relatively stable — with New York Senator Hillary Clinton still in the lead nationally, followed by Senator Barack Obama and Senator John Edwards.

Clinton is 22 points ahead of Obama nationally — but a key will be what happens in the voting in early primary states. That can dramatically shift the “Big Mo” that Clinton wants and needs and the national numbers can quickly change. Another poll has shown that, above all, the Democrats want to nominate someone who is electable — so if she stumbles badly, it could impact her vote in other states and national polls.

Far more is up for grabs in the GOP than just the nomination this year.

Giuliani represents a different kind of Republican. On foreign affairs, terrorism and national security he often seems over-caffeinated and trying to out George Bush George Bush. On some other issues he has skillfully-finessed his earlier, more liberal or Democratic Party-friendly stands to be in line with the GOP base, or stuck to his guns. But he does not fit the profile of a member of the Republican Party’s base.

There are some Republicans who insist they will not and cannot support a Republican ticket with Giuliani heading it — for philosophical reasons, let alone due to the recent spate of negative stories relating to him.

Then there are the more traditional Goldwater-style Republicans who’ve felt “dissed” and marginalized by the Bushies who control the White House and the party’s lever of power.

And, now, you have to add Huckabee into the mix — a candidate who is not a favorite of the Republican elite hierarchy or of followers of Giuliani. In fact, a Rasmussen poll finds that as Huckabee rises in the polls in Iowa, people who don’t like him are rallying to Arizona Senator John McCain.

So this year, more than ever, whispers of a possible brokered convention can be heard. That prospect seems to come up every few years.

But the bigger threat to the GOP is a race where in the end the Grand Old Party is not unified because the uneasy coalition that held it together is starting to burst at the seams — and there is no charismatic, beloved Ronald Reagan-like person to hold it together again.

UPDATE: A new ABC poll has bad news for Giuliani and Romney and good news for Governor Mike Huckabee: religion is driving the race there:

Religion is driving the Republican presidential race in Iowa, with Mike Huckabee taking the lead on the strength of overwhelming support from evangelical voters — and Mitt Romney falling behind over concerns about his Mormon faith.

Huckabee, who jumped into contention in Iowa a month ago, has soared further among his key groups — weekly churchgoers, abortion opponents, conservatives and, above all, evangelical Protestants, who account for nearly four in 10 likely caucus-goers. They now favor Huckabee over Romney by a 3-1 margin, 57 percent to 19 percent.

Romney, for his part, holds a slight lead among the nearly eight in 10 Iowa Republicans who say his religion doesn’t matter in their vote. But the remaining two in 10 say his Mormon religion makes them less likely to support him, and they overwhelmingly favor Huckabee by a large enough margin to put him in front overall.

Giuliani and actor Fred Thompson are down to single digit numbers in this poll.

SOME OTHER WEBLOG REACTION:

–Mind of Mog:

Mitt stands a chance. So does Mike Huckabee who isn’t far behind and closing fast although the anti-Huckabee rhetoric is starting to surface mostly cause of his stance on immigration. Race is too close to call. It makes it more interesting that way. And as long as these guys have been campaigning, one needs something of interest cause it’s a long way to Nov ‘08 and we’re sure to be sick of it by then. Maybe Rudy could dress up or something, that’d perk things up.

–Daily Kos:

The fact is, the Republicans still want Ronald Reagan, and because they can’t have them, they are picking None Of The Above….Keep looking, Republicans. I hear Alan Keyes is available.

–Sonoran Alliance:

Mayor Giuliani and Governor’s Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee represent these constituencies: Giuliani = International (National Security) Conservatives; Mitt Romney = Fiscal Conservatives; Huckabee = Social Conservatives with John McCain taking up the loose ends on a handful of each constituency.

The big question is which candidate will manage to pull each constituency together?