TIME Poll: Obama Leads by 5 in Ohio
Polls are all over the place, but this one is getting a lot of attention: a new Time poll finds President Barack Obama has a five point lead over Republican Presidential nominee Mitt Romney — who most analysts believe must win Ohio to win the Presidency:
Buoyed by early voting in his favor, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by five points in the pivotal state of Ohio, according to a new TIME poll.
Counting both Ohioans who say they will head to the polls on November 6, and those who have already cast a ballot, Obama holds a 49% to 44% lead over Romney in a survey taken Monday and Tuesday night.
The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points.
The poll makes clear that there are really two races underway in Ohio. On one hand, the two candidates are locked in a dead heat among Ohioans who have not yet voted but who say they intend to, with 45% of respondents supporting the President and 45% preferring his Republican challenger.
But Obama has clearly received a boost from Ohio’s early voting period, which began on Oct. 2 and runs through November 5. Among respondents who say they have already voted, Obama holds a two-to-one lead over Romney, 60% to 30%.
When those two groups are combined, the TIME poll reveals, Obama leads by five points overall in Ohio.
“At least for the early vote, the Obama ground game seems to be working,” says Mark Schulman, president of Abt SRBI, which conducted the poll.
Nearly one third of all Ohioans voted early in 2008.
The survey also suggests Obama is riding a wave of optimism in Ohio, where voters appear to separate their worries about the direction of the nation from how they regard the landscape in the Buckeye State.
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Expect both candidate to spend a huge amount of time in Ohio, right up to election day.
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Agreed. I never thought Romney had a chance in Ohio. Properly weighted polls show this to be true. I think Suffolk is going to regret call Virginia for Romney and then leaving the state.
I’m still looking at early voters and those results are intriguing. When you consider the polling methods, I’m not sure any of them are even close. Not sure the cell phone owners are weighted accurately and those who have caller ID, especially in Ohio, are simply not answering their phone. How does that affect polling?
Colin Powell has just endorsed Obama, and other endorsements for both candidates are coming all the time. Whether those have any influence on the voters is another question.
Wisc, Mich, and Penn are Obama’s, those are done deals. I know they are listed as swing states, but I just don’t see it any more. NC is Romney for sure…no longer a swing state. Florida is a swing state that for sure leans Romney, but there could be some motion towards Obama in that state. I still think Romney will take it.
That leaves very few states for Romney to split. He has to make a massive run to get the 270 and I just dont see it happening.
that being said, he will probably win the popular vote. Maybe that will move Reps a little towards changing the electoral college.
I want Obama to win, if for no other reason, so that people in the mold of Erick Erickson and Rush Limbaugh lay awake at night gnashing their teeth.
Ohio, that is an interesting thought, I wonder if the polls can get out of whack if either the Dems or the Reps as a group don’t answer the phones. The poor people in Ohio must be going crazy, or isn’t this the most intrusive campaign ever.